Tag: Global warming

Solving the wrong problem

It Didn’t Work

Have you heard of the bygone’s principle? It’s also known as the sunk cost fallacy. You’ve spent money and/or invested time into something. You use that past investment as justification to continue moving forward – independent of current factors. The problem is that the previous investment is the past. Decision making should be based on the present and future. You made a real estate investment that hasn’t panned out. The smart move might be to dump it, take the loss, and figure out what’s next. It’s all too common to not want to let go and just admit it was a mistake. As humans we tend to focus on the past and as a result, hold on to bad investments, jobs, and relationships far longer than we should. The smart choice if the current or future scenario isn’t right anymore… is to move on.

With that in mind, I had a thought the other day. The US and generally Europe, have decided that the release of carbon dioxide via fossil fuels is enhancing the greenhouse effect and causing global warming. This warming is the cause of seemingly every problem we’re experiencing on the planet and is dooming us to some sort of terrifying apocalypse. Whether that’s true or not is a debate for another day. Let’s assume it’s true for the sake of discussion. With certain destruction of the planet looming, we’ve committed easily trillions of dollars to reduce carbon emissions.

As a society we’ve completely altered our way of life – regulations, limits on how/what factories can manufacture, fundamentally influencing the development of vehicles, and doing everything possible to end the fossil fuel industry. Regardless of thinking that all those things are good or bad, here’s my point… it hasn’t worked.

Think about it. Everything we’ve done for the last thirty-forty years to combat climate change hasn’t changed the amount of the carbon dioxide in the atmosphere one iota. Nadda. Nothing. Zero. We haven’t made the slightest dent. In fact, it keeps increasing at an exponential rate. So why do we keep doubling down, year, after year, after year on expensive strategies that don’t work?

Doesn’t that seem like the perfect example of the sunk cost fallacy to you? We know it hasn’t worked. It continues to not work. But we’ve invested so much… let’s just keep doing more of the same thing that’s not working. Why would we do that? It’s crazy.

I don’t know what the answer is, but banking everything on something that hasn’t modified anything in thirty years seems kind of loco to me. Maybe it’s time to stop the carbon reduction nonsense. Find a different approach. Heck, we can deploy Bill Gate’s idea to blot out the sun to cool the planet. Just kidding, let’s please not do that.

Perhaps we can stop trying to kill the fossil fuel industry and get fuel prices back in check. Maybe we can have incandescent light bulbs again. Heck, we could even kill the carbon offsets Ponzi schemes. Anything would be better than our current path.

It’s been a massive sunk cost. It’s going to sting a bit to abandon it. It’ll be hard to admit it didn’t work. Some egos will be bruised. There will be great gnashing of teeth. But the truth is, we’ve completely failed at controlling atmospheric carbon dioxide. Time to move forward and think differently.

Solving the wrong problem

Dude, Are You Even Green?

I woke up this morning to news that another whack job protester had glued his head to a famous painting in the Hague to demonstrate against climate change. Now I don’t generally advocate violence, but in these cases I might make an exception. The next time one of these protesters glues themselves to a wall, it would be lovely if the appropriate authorities would kindly assist them to the ground with some force when arresting them. Wouldn’t it be a shame if some of their newly glued skin remained affixed to the wall?

Ok, sorry. Had to get that out of my system. It baffles me that people can be so blinded by their religion, that they are able to justify anything to themselves as righteous. And yes, global warming is a religion. You cannot question it. You will be branded a heretic if you don’t believe. Never mind that every prediction ever made by the global warming/climate change/extreme weather cult hasn’t materialized… they just keep pushing the date out and hope you don’t notice. Ok, ok, I know we said there was only 10 years left to save the planet, 30 years ago – but this time we’re serious. We have graphs and charts!

The protesters belong to some group called “Just Stop Oil – No New Oil and Gas”. I guess it doesn’t occur to them that the vast majority of every modern product on the planet is some derivative of petroleum – including, ironically, the glue they used to fasten themselves to the wall with. The question the green zealots never seem to answer is, what is the alternative to all this nasty oil?

If pushed, their answer is often the elusive GREEN ENERGY. Wind turbines. Solar panels. Electric vehicles. Clean, renewable, and they don’t spew that nasty carbon dioxide that is literally DESTROYING the planet. Apparently in the green religion, products aren’t manufactured. They just magically appear – poof! Happy workers wearing hemp clothing scamper to the fields to collect the batteries and solar panels placed there by the green energy fairies.

I hate to do this, but I’m going to have to point out an inconvenient truth. Things like batteries are manufactured. In a factory. Factories that use many, many megawatts of energy and machines that run on that horrible oil and nasty diesel. And before that, all those components are made in other factories. And the components come from minerals and ore that must be dug out of the ground by, GASP, huge machines that run on oil and gas and diesel.

The average EV battery requires 250 tons of ore to be mined. Things like copper and lithium. What do you suspect the carbon footprint is of those huge mining dump trucks and ore crushers? If you’re curious, I’d highly recommend you read this thread about what it takes to produce the copper wire for your Tesla battery or giant wind turbine. The energy expenditure and carbon footprint is absolutely staggering.

The real truth is that accounting for manufacturing, the lifetime emission footprint of an electric vehicle is greater than the average gas vehicle. Wait, what? Yes, you read that right. Then there’s the current electric grid which couldn’t support the swapping of all gasoline cars with EV’s. Oh, and the pesky issue of where the electricity is going to come from. It certainly won’t be from wind turbines. And if you’re green, I know you’re not going to support the MASSIVE increase in mining operations that’ll be needed to harvest all the minerals required. We’ll also just ignore the fact that most of those mines are in countries that, shall we say, aren’t inclined to be friendly to the USA.

The hard reality is that wind, solar, and electric vehicles is not the answer – in fact it probably makes the problem worse. If you’re a card-carrying member of the green religion, I’d love to hear the plan to overcome these manufacturing obstacles. Unfortunately, I suspect the vast majority of green folks have never given it a thought. Like slapping an “organic” label on something, they buy their “clean energy” vehicle and feel good about themselves. Almost… righteous. And when you’re righteous, you can condemn and lecture anyone who dares to question the orthodoxy. Facts not required.

I also read today that the US is down to a 25-day supply of diesel fuel. That’s good, right? Let’s stop using that filthy planet destroying petroleum! Some folks may be surprised when they hop in their EV to go down to the local Starbucks for their soy latte, only to discover Starbucks never got their coffee supplies delivered. Something about every product in this country being delivered by diesel trucks and trains.

That’s silly. I’m sure nothing like that could ever happen. Could it?

Solving the wrong problem, woke

Be Proud, Say It Out Loud

A thought struck me the other day while I was driving. Thoughts don’t happen that often, and usually disappear in a few hours, but this one stuck with me. As the miles rolled by, I was listening to some talking heads argue back and forth about the cause of increased gasoline costs. One of the pundits was trying to say that none of this was Biden’s fault, bla, bla, bla. It suddenly hit me – why aren’t these folks shouting from the rooftops that increased fuel costs are a good thing?

I’m serious. The stated goal of environmentalists and the high priests of climate change is to raise fuel costs to bring about reduced consumption. Time and time again the thought leaders in the climate change movement have said raising prices to Europe (or higher) levels is the only way to “break” America’s addiction to oil.

So, you either believe the president when he says climate change is an existential threat or you don’t. If you’re a more left leaning supporter of the current administration and climate change, then say it out loud. High gas prices are a good thing. Prices should be higher. Be proud of your belief and stand behind it. Don’t be coy about it. Say it. I’m happy prices are high, and I think we should raise the fuel taxes and regulations to drive it to $8-10 dollars a gallon.

Because if you’re not willing to publicly voice one of the tenets of your religion, you’re a coward. politicians won’t speak it out loud because they know high fuel prices causes actual pain for their constituents – and getting re-elected is far more important than campaign rhetoric. Causing too much pain for the serfs tends to lead to angry mobs. Can’t have that.

But you’re not a politician. You have nothing to lose. So, if you’re someone who’s ever espoused climate change/global warming/extreme weather on the socials or at cocktail parties… it’s time to put up or shut up. Go post something on Facebook right now declaring that high gas prices are a good thing and should be higher. Make that claim the next time you’re sitting around with friends. State it at work in meetings and in the breakroom.

Climate change either is an immediate threat to the planet, or it’s not. It can’t be an immediate, existential threat that requires action and change NOW… as long as it doesn’t cost me too much to drive to Disneyworld this summer or make my groceries too expensive. You can’t have both.

It’s time to be proud and stand up for what you believe in. Say it out loud. Otherwise, you’re a hypocrite and a coward.

Solving the wrong problem

Let’s Trust The Science

The other day I rambled on a bit about a question I had – can you name an actual harm that Trump did to the nation? Not mean tweets harm, but real identifiable harm. Well I was shocked to find out that someone actually read my post, and not only that but took the time to comment (which I appreciate, good or bad). The comments pointed out that Trump took some actions to remove or modify environmental policies from the previous administration. Clearly that would cause harm, wouldn’t it?

You’d think this would be an easy answer. We have climate. We have smart people studying things. We’ve been measuring this for a long time. Simple, right? And the answer is… it depends on what data you choose to believe. Sigh.

But, but, these are scientists man. Science is always objective, right? Not when there’s billions of dollars in funding at stake. Oh come on, these are experts. They wouldn’t push science that wasn’t proven. Really? Please point me to any county, state, or country that can show any clear correlation between implementing a mask mandate and a lowering of covid case counts. We have a year and a half of clear data on this. The correlation signal should be pretty easy to spot. I’ll wait. Hint, you won’t find it. Yet the experts continue to yammer on and on about masking. We’re creating an entire generation of kids who are afraid to go outside and play without a mask on. Yet nobody can actually point to any real “science” to this other than “the experts say”.

Anyway, back to global warming. Yes, I said global warming because that’s what this was about until the “experts” decided it needed to be re-branded. It’s now called CLIMATE CHANGE. Convenient, because any weather abnormality can now be attributed to CLIMATE CHANGE. The last few years we’ve tacked on EXTREME WEATHER. Because, of course, EXTREME WEATHER is naturally caused by CLIMATE CHANGE. It’s just science, man.

This is such an enormous topic, it’s virtually impossible to boil it down to easy, bullet point, talking points from any side of the argument. Have we experienced global warming? Yes. Somewhere between 0.3 and 0.7 degrees centigrade in the last century. The global warming hypothesis that started in the late 80’s is that there will be about a 1 degree increase in temperature for each doubling of CO2 in the atmosphere. The kicker that Al Gore capitalized on is that the claim that greenhouse gases would cause a positive feedback loop, adding another 2-4 degrees of warming and eventually causing a tipping point that was unrecoverable. Throw in a scary hockey stick graph, some images of polar bears stranded on melting ice flows, and voila – we have a crisis!

The challenge with any hypothesis is that your findings have to be independently reproduced to have any credibility. Mann’s hockey stick graph used cherry picked data and code that turned any inputs into a hockey stick. The projections the IPCC uses year after year to predict gloom and doom are based upon models that have been laughably wrong. Not just by a little bit but by massive amounts. And wrong year, after year, after year.

But, but, what about the wildfires every summer? And the hurricanes? And the melting ice caps? And increased numbers of hot days? And rising sea levels? And polar vortexes? OH MY GOD, THERE’S EXTREME WEATHER EVERYWHERE!!

Burn acreage is down massively. Hurricane frequency is way down. Artic ice reached above normal levels this year. The number of hot summer days is actually down. Sea level isn’t rising. And on, and on, and on. Can you find a particular data point and extrapolate from that some causation? Sure. But when you take multi-decadal trends (which is what climate is), any changes seen are mostly… meh.

Unfortunately people cherry pick and alter the data. What? Yes, the temperature data is altered. Half the US weather stations are “zombie” stations – they don’t actually exist anymore. Their data is computer generated from a model/algorithm. Weather stations that 40 years ago were in a field are now surrounded by asphalt parking lots and building exhaust vents, a.k.a the urban heat island effect. Most scary graphs start from the 1960’s/70’s. Why? It was a very cold period – remember they were predicting in the 70’s we were heading into a new ice age. It’s not convenient to start your data points earlier than that due to the extreme global heat of the 1930’s (the dustbowl).

It goes on and on. Our data collection is a mess. And unfortunately scientists actually do lie. Remember climategate? Emails showed they were conspiring to find a way to “hide the pause”. We’d had a 17 year pause in any signs of warming at that point. A very inconvenient truth. So yes, count me as a skeptical when it comes to experts making any extreme global warming claims.

And the cherry on the cake is the UN/IPCC climate treaties. The US was correct to pull out. They achieve nothing except massive wealth transfer from the US to other countries, while not actually requiring other countries (CHINA) to do anything. China is building out coal fired plants as fast as they can go, meanwhile the US and Europe doom themselves to voluntary CO2 restrictions that cripple our energy production. Here’s a perfect example of looking at the data – we had a near complete shutdown of the world a year ago. A more extreme version than any UN agreement could have hoped for. And what happened? Atmospheric CO2 didn’t budge in the slightest. Zero change. So tell me again how any UN agreement (costing gazillions of dollars) is going to “fix” global warming when a global shutdown didn’t make any impact?

The global climate is ungodly complex. Solar impacts, ocean currents, equatorial winds, and yes even manmade issues… there are so many factors impacting the climate. We’re still in the infancy of understanding the impact of things like solar cycles and ocean currents. I think it’s foolish to think we can point to just one possible cause with all its associated faulty data, politics, and agendas and say conclusively – ah ha, that’s the issue.

So, did Trump cause harm by pulling out of the Paris Agreement? Since none of the previous four UN climate summits achieved anything… I’d argue it made zero climate impact. The effect of substituting Obama’s Clean Power Plan with the Affordable Clean Energy rule will depend upon which side of the global warming/greenhouse gas side of the coin you’re on. If you think, like the green new deal zealots that the world will end in 12 years if we don’t do something NOW!… then yes it caused harm.

My position is that when you strip away all the politics, media hype, and academics jockeying for the next round of funding – we honestly don’t really know. Lots of hypothesis, very little reproducible findings that conclusively prove correlation/causation. And with the frightening rise in fuel and energy costs (and the associated rise in the costs of all goods) happening right now, I’m going to be a skeptic when it comes to making changes that will make things economically worse for the planet.

Al Gore’s Inconvenient Truth came out in 2006 and claimed we only had 10 years left before we reached the point of no return. And 15 years later… the polar bears are thriving. The west coast isn’t under water. We’re not wearing shorts in the arctic. I’m pretty sure we don’t need to panic. My prediction? At the current rate of change it will take about 100 years before we’ll see a clear enough signal in the data to show if we’re really warming or not vs one or two year abnormalities. Climate is measured in decade and century time scales. And in a century from now, I’m reasonably confident we’ll have alternative energy sources we currently haven’t thought of. Our technological advance is going to happen independent of global warming fears. It’s our human nature.

The entire point of science is to question. Question the data. Question the findings. Question the methods. Question the motivations. Question, question, question. And when you run out of questions and can’t find fault with the results, you’ve arrived at a solid scientific theory. With climate, we’re still at the very beginning. Questioning isn’t denial, it’s what we’re supposed to do.

Back off, man, I’m a scientist.

 Dr. Peter Venkman

Confirmation bias, Daily Life, Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

I Don’t Know, But I’ve Been Told
  • GIGO. Garbage In, Garbage Out. If you haven’t heard that expression before, it’s an old-school programing adage. Your belief systems are a product of the inputs you consume. Consistently consume information from just one source and that’s what you’ll believe. A recent, annual, survey that focuses on false beliefs broken down by political ideology, gender, etc… illustrates this. The questions ranged from Covid, race, gender, and the climate. Biden voters had false beliefs 61% of the time, while Trump voters were wrong 42% of the time. If you consume your information solely from CNN, MSNBC, Facebook, and like minded Twitter follows, then of course you’ll have a skewed vision of the world. The same is true of Fox, but per the survey to a lesser degree. Take for example the recent expose of CNN by Project Veritas. Oh, you didn’t hear about it? That’s because there’s zero coverage of it on CNN, MSNBC, Politico, and Twitter permanently banned Veritas’ account. Veritas published video footage of a CNN technical director saying the networks focus was to get Trump out of office. “Look what we did, we got Trump out. I am 100 percent going to say it, and I 100 percent believe that if it wasn’t for CNN, I don’t know that Trump would have got voted out. … I came to CNN because I wanted to be a part of that,” Chester stated. He then said, “[COVID] will taper off to a point that it’s not a problem, anymore. Climate change can take years, so [CNN will] probably be able to milk that quite a bit. … Climate change is going to be the next COVID thing for CNN. … Fear sells.” You would think “The most trusted name in news” getting caught talking about pushing a specific social/political agenda might be a story. The fact that it’s not even mentioned by the major outlets speaks volumes. This really shouldn’t be a surprise, but clearly a large percentage of people take whatever the news media says as gospel. Hear it often enough and it starts to become a core part of your beliefs. The goal of the School Of Contrarianism is not to claim what I say is correct. I’m probably full of shit 38.4% of the time according to the latest surveys. The goal is to get you to question. Question everything. Just because some 23 year old “journalist” did a copy/paste of an AP story and then added their own opinions to give the story some “depth” doesn’t make it correct. We’ve gone from the 1960’s Timothy Leary/counterculture slogan “Question Authority” to becoming mindless lemmings of corporate wokeness. Ever see the movie The Truman Show? That’s us today. We’re all stars of the show, only we don’t know it. (P.S, lemmings don’t really jump off cliffs and commit mass suicide. Boom, mind blown.)
  • Speaking of blindly following a narrative, the Biden administration continues to give focus to the cult of global warming. Here’s a good place to start practicing your path down Contrarianism (TM). In the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s (EIA) the Monthly Energy Review, they report that energy-related CO2 emissions decreased by 11% in the United States in 2020 primarily because of the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and related restrictions. Furthermore, U.S. energy-related CO2 emissions fell in every end-use (consumer) sector for the first time since 2012. We had a record reduction in CO2 emissions, so we have the first actual laboratory experiment to see what happens with CO2 in the atmosphere. Remember, reduction of CO2 in the atmosphere is the entire goal of the green new deal that’s supposed to save us from this existential threat. So what happened? Nothing. Zero change in atmospheric CO2. Not even a blip. Meanwhile, China’s Vice Minister of Foreign Affairs Le Yucheng on Friday said, “Some countries are asking China to do more on climate change. I am afraid this is not very realistic”. On Wednesday President Biden’s climate czar, John Kerry, admitted Wednesday that the US reducing its emissions to zero wouldn’t make much of a difference in the global climate change fight. Yet we’re moving forward on a $2 trillion climate agenda. How does this even make sense? As a junior Contrarian, start questioning this sort of crap.
  • The Minneapolis City Council has voted 11-1 to oppose the use of tear gas and other munitions as part of Minnesota’s response to civil disorder. Closing arguments in the Chauvin trial start Monday. I’ma gonna grab my popcorn for this one. I’m sure Minneapolis will come out just fine from all this. A few mostly peaceful protesters and some bad words shouted. It’ll all be good.
  • You should read this letter from a parent who’s pulling his kid out of an expensive private school. We’re creating an entire generation of mindless lemmings (I can’t help but perpetuate this lemming myth). I’m reminded of a meme I saw the other day that speaks truth. “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. Weak men create hard times”. Sorry for the blatant cisgendering stereotyping. If I’ve insulted your personhood and cosmic aura, I apologize.
  • I decided to install a part on the ginormous motorcycle yesterday. I was going to have the dealership do it, but it kills me to pay someone to do what I’m (mostly) capable of. It took half a day, one trip to the auto parts store for a specialized tool, several skinned knuckles, many four letter words, and watching a how-to video approximately thirty times before I realized there was a specific orientation to get the parts to fit. I should have just gone to the dealership. Do you think I’ve learned my lesson? Probably not. As Forest Gump says, “I’m not a smart man”.

Song of the day: Fatboy Slim – The Rockafeller Skank

Health

Put Up Or Shut Up
  • I went downhill skiing yesterday. Nothing remarkable about that (it was a gorgeous bluebird day!), as I ski a lot. The issue is that I couldn’t button my ski pants. The waist expansion has been slowly increasing all winter long and has finally reached crisis levels. I’ve said it before, I feel like I’m a reasonably active guy for my age. Maybe a touch above average in the activity level department, so burning calories isn’t the issue. The problem is that my food intake is out of control and massively outpaces what I can burn. I can’t help myself. I know I can lose weight because I’ve done it before. Unfortunately for me dieting is just like the old joke about stopping smoking: “quitting smoking is easy, I’ve done it dozens of times”. I can be super disciplined once I get started. It’s the getting started part that’s the issue. I’ve been meaning to “get started” any day now for months. I officially can’t stand myself any longer. Having to suck in my gut to get my ski pants on was the last straw. I have an additional motivation (as if general health isn’t enough) in that I have this ginormous new motorcycle that I’m going to have to pick up at some point. I honestly don’t know if I’m strong enough right now. That could be an issue on a remote trail by myself. So, operation senior fitness begins today. A buddy has been bugging me to sign up for a trail running event in the fall and I’ve been pretty resistant. I’m still not thrilled at the idea, but I will commit as an incentive to be consistent with my running this summer. I’ll dust off the garage gym and actually start using it. Since I’m now a part time employee, it’s not like I don’t have the time (I hate not having excuses). Which leaves me with the crux of the issue – diet. At the end of the day it still comes down to expending more calories than you consume. Sigh. I wish I didn’t like to eat and drink so much. Realistically I do better with stark changes rather than attempting to ease into something. So I guess I’ll just have to follow Jocko Willink’s advice yesterday morning (sound up).
  • Filed in the WTF department, the Biden administration has decided to ban some Dr Seuss books due to concerns about “racial undertones”. I’d like to laugh, but these people are serious. What I find most concerning is that with everything currently going on in the country and world, THIS is something that someone in the administration actually put time and thought into? Really? Worrying that there may racial issues with a beloved set of children’s books? WTF is wrong with these people?
  • Barak Obama entered the Whitehouse with a net worth of about a million dollars, mostly from book advances. Four years after leaving the presidency his estimated net worth is $70 million. Last year they bought a $15 million dollar beachfront property in Martha’s Vineyard. He’s done pretty well since his days as a community organizer. I have no point to this other than politics sure pays pretty well.
  • This article is an interesting look at potential corruption with the IAFF (International Association of Fire Fighters) union and the Muscular Dystrophy Association charity. I don’t really care, other than it helps illustrate my distrust of unions that I mentioned the other day. When you’re talking about tens of millions of dollars and a $2 million dollar Washington DC headquarters across from the Whitehouse… I’m not sure the unions first focus is simply the wellbeing of its members.
  • Here’s a cartoon illustration of actual climate predictions made by actual climate experts. I’m sure this time they’re right though. The climate crisis is clearly the most existential crisis of our lifetime. Hmmm, ok.
  • A list of actual clever design ideas.

Song of the day: The Smashing Pumpkins – Zero (Official Music Video)

Cool, Daily Life, Government, Health

Long Way Down And An Emu Museum
  • Normally I love winter. I downhill ski, cross-country, skate ski, or snowshoe at least three to four days a week. You might ask why I’m still getting fatter then, but that’s a topic for another post. This winter I’ve been busy preparing for my “Summer of George” moment. New motorcycle purchased, new riding suit, tools, updated video gear, endless hours of motorcycle travel videos consumed, and many late nights pouring over maps planning routes. I’m almost ready to hit the road. Except motorcycles, snow, and ice don’t mix very well. I’m probably a tiny bit more rugged than the average guy, but not Long Way Down rugged. If you haven’t watched this motorcycle travel documentary you should. It’s interesting to see the effort it took to film something before the GoPro existed. Anyway, the point is that it’s another month in my part of the world before road-tripping becomes enjoyable weather-wise. I’ve never looked forward to winter ending before. So, I’m forced to spend my time pursuing maps and travel websites to build my list of must-see destinations. I’ve been mostly focusing on unrealistic epic trips across the west, so I hadn’t looked much at what’s close to me. This morning I stumbled upon the motherload of interesting small town America just a few hours from me. I found a little town perched on the Snake River that hosts what they bill as “Lawson’s Emu-Z-Um”. It was an emu ranch that has become a museum full of artifacts and dwellings from the 1800s early settlers and early small town America memorabilia. Looking at the map more, within 40-50 miles of that town are deep canyon overlooks, sand dunes, birds of prey conservation areas, and a ghost town. Plus a couple of promising looking BBQ and burger places. This is the perfect day trip to kick off the Summer of George! Another month of quick rides around town in-between storms to get used to the new bike, and then it begins. Because I love winter, I’ve never looked at the weather report before and cursed when I see another week of storms coming. It’s a strange feeling. Sigh. Back to the maps for now I suppose.
  • A California democratic representative, during an interview on CNN, stated that those businesses that cannot afford to pay their employees $15 an hour are essentially not worth preserving. This simple statement encompasses everything wrong with mostly liberal, big government-centric thinking. The thought that some mindless bureaucrat gets to pick and choose what businesses are worthy of keeping is appalling. And naturally it’s a statement from someone who’s been primarily an academic/lawyer/politician his entire career. A thirty second investigation into the representative (a.k.a. Wikipedia) shows a bit of a contradiction – he has a degree in economics, wrote a book titled “Entrepreneurial Nation: Why Manufacturing is Still Key to America’s Future“, yet still makes statements like the one he did. My interest is piqued enough to read more about his philosophy. Maybe there’s something I’m missing? At the moment, in regards to the $15 minimum wage, I still feel if people are resorting to entry level jobs to feed a family then it seems like the government focus should be on enabling creation of middle income opportunities instead of simply raising the bottom wage. Otherwise, let’s just adopt Andrew Yang’s proposal and give everyone a universal basic income. We’re already printing money, what’s a few hundred trillion more?
  • There’s been so much global warming, Niagara Falls froze over this week. Of course polar vortexes are cyclical events that happen from time to time and shouldn’t be counted as climate. Climate is measured in decades. Interestingly, in the cult of global warming, a cold event like this doesn’t get much press but an El Nino warming event causing a hot summer will be treated as non-stop climate Armageddon. It’s all about the narrative baby.
  • Speaking of printing money, the Federal Reserve expanded its record holdings of US Treasuries in the fourth quarter of 2020 as it continued monetizing the massive federal debt. I don’t understand much of this, but it does seem like they’re trying to push inflation. Most of this is way over my head, but it certainly feels like if we continue to simply toggle the levers… at some point it’s going to collapse. I guess as long as it’s not on my watch we’re all good.
  • I know that there is no actual censorship or purging happening on the part of Twitter towards folks who don’t tow the woke orthodoxy, but they just suspended Steven Crowder for simply saying he can confirm that people voted at address that do not exist. That is some serious insurrectionist talk. Thank god we’re being protected from outrageous statements like that.
  • I don’t know if this is real or staged, but it’s pretty funny regardless. You need to watch to the end.

Song of the day: Red Hot Chili Peppers – Higher Ground – Live at La Cigale

Confirmation bias, Government, Health, Solving the wrong problem

Maybe I’m Wrong?
  • I’m often wrong. Some days I feel like I’m wrong more than I’m right. But when it matters, I take extra steps to try and not be wrong. As a healthcare worker, you better hope I doublecheck what I’m doing before I inject something into your bloodstream. Since we’re about to spend a truckload of money to fight the scourge of climate change, don’t you think we should take a moment to doublecheck our work? Our climate czar John Kerry said that we only have 9 years left to avoid climate disaster. In 1989 the UN said we only have 10 years before the planet is destroyed. In 2006 Al Gore said we only have 10 years before global warming destroys the planet. In 2009, NASA’s James Hansen said we only have until 2013. AOC says we have until 2030, so at least there’s a little time left. 45 years ago it was global cooling that would become our biggest issue. Can we all just get our stories straight please? Before Bill Gates funds a program to inject tinfoil into the atmosphere to block the sun, shouldn’t we be pretty sure we’re actually causing global warming? If government and “scientists” were being intellectually honest, they’d fund a red team to try and disprove the global warming theories. Because every single climate model and prediction has been wrong. Not a little bit off, but spectacularly wrong. As the old saying goes, correlation does not imply causation. And since the very premise of the scientific method is to put out a hypothesis and let others try and disprove it, shouldn’t we be doing that? It’s only once it can’t be disproven it becomes accepted theory. The fact that you’re not allowed to question something should bother you. Therefore, I’d like to be proven wrong. Please show me proof that A) the earth is warming at a dangerous rate beyond what could be attributed to natural cycles, and B) that it is without a doubt being caused by man. Probably most importantly, if A and B are actually true then please prove that anything proposed by governments would actually solve A or B. I don’t think you can. So tell me again why we’re going to impact our economy for something nobody can prove with solutions that we’re not sure will even work?
  • Speaking of spending money on lost causes, the US has spent spent more than $787 million dollars on “gender equality projects” in Afghanistan. So tell me again why my taxes need to go up?
  • I found a pretty good YouTube series about a group of guys who take an eight day motorcycle ride around my state. It’s very well done and neat to see some of the local trails that I’ve ridden. It was compelling enough that I blew most of my morning yesterday being nonproductive and watching it. I sent the link to a buddy who started watching it with his young son. His son became so enamored with it, he got out maps so he could follow along where they were going. I love seeing that. That’s the sort of spirit we need to be instilling in young folks. Curiosity and exploration is what built this country. We need more of it.
  • While on the topic of exploration, the Mars landing of the Perseverance rover was very cool. It is amazing what we’re capable of from a technology perspective these days. I do wonder why we have such a heavy focus on Mars though? I get that it may be the end goal, but why all the focus now? Meaning, shouldn’t we be concentrating on how we’re going to build structures, manage food, water, and oxygen, etc… on someplace that’s just a bit closer? Like the moon perhaps? I honestly don’t get why we’re focused on a place that takes a year to get to rather than one that takes a few days. It seems like logistically we could achieve the same technology learning goals easier, by going to the moon rather than Mars. Maybe we are doing that and it just hasn’t hit the news. Perhaps the moon just isn’t sexy enough. I’ll have to do some research.
  • The UCI just announced that it is banning the “super tuck”. If you’re not familiar with this, it’s a technique where a cyclist sits down on the top tube to be more aerodynamic and shifts weight forward for increased speed downhill. Many folks don’t realize the pros can easily hit 50 miles an hour downhill. Doing the super tuck at ludicrous speed takes testicles much bigger than mine, that’s for sure. Oh, sorry to leave you with that image. Here’s a video of super fast cycling descents to make up for it.
  • Last night I had an enormous plate of Mexican food. This morning I’m eating a bowl of croutons as I type this. In a little while we’re going to meet some friends for breakfast and I’ll have a huge breakfast burrito of some sort. Meanwhile I wonder why my pants no longer fit. I saw a quote today that describes my problem exactly. “I have the palate of a raccoon”. Yep, that’s me. Sigh.

Song of the day: The Kinks – Lola (from One For The Road)

Cool, Daily Life, Solving the wrong problem

An Unprecedented Storm
  • The media is garbage. They churn out crap with sensationalist headlines and most people simply read it and assume it’s true. With much of the country encased in some pretty cold temps there’s been plenty of attention on Texas, who’s electrical grid has spectacularly failed. Headline after headline proclaims Houston is being hit with an unprecedented storm. If journalists employed the internet search skills of your average twelve year old, they’d discover there’s nothing “unprecedented” about this. Valentines day, 1895, Houston was hit with 22″ of snow. So, yeah, it’s happened before. Multiple times. Apparently the dictionary definition of unprecedented has changed. I understand you need over the top headlines to sell the modern equivalent of newspapers. I’m ok with that. It used to be if newspapers went too far down the sensationalist road too often, they’d be lumped in with the “weekly world news” tabloids. Today there seems to be no shame in baseless propaganda. I wouldn’t really care except that I guarantee you it won’t be long before our new climate czars will start lumping in the “unprecedented winter storms” with all the other ridiculous and false claims of record hurricanes, rising sea levels, and record wildfires as evidence of rapid acceleration of global warming (sorry, “climate change”). And that false narrative is being used to shut down the fossil fuel industries and funnel billions upon billions of newly printed dollars to more “green energy” boondoggles. Hey, I have no problem with trying to come up alternative sources of energy. But snow covered solar panels and frozen windmills isn’t it. Meanwhile, in 2020 China built over three times as much new coal power capacity as all other countries in the world combined – the equivalent of more than one large coal plant per week. In addition, over 73 gigawatts of new coal power projects were initiated in China, five times as much as in all other countries. China and India do not give a crap about the Paris Climate Treaty. While we watch people in Texas dying from carbon monoxide poisoning trying keep warm, China is eventually going to kick our asses. We have a clean, safe, and reliable source of green energy already. It’s called nuclear. Our failure to embrace it is going to come back to haunt us when it’s too late. Meanwhile, I’m going to go enjoy some powder skiing for the next week in the several feet of global warming expected to fall in our mountains.
  • Meanwhile, lets check in on how mask mandates vs no mandates work. Looking at that chart I’d say mask mandates had no impact on Covid, but then I’d be labeled a denier. Therefore I fully embrace the new CDC policy of encouraging double masking. Oh wait, you told us any face covering works to block viruses? Now I have to wear two? This almost sounds like a face covering doesn’t really work. I’m so confused. It’s almost like the only face covering that actually blocks viruses is, oh I don’t know, a properly worn and fit tested N95 respirator?
  • Speaking of media as garbage, this piece by Glenn Greenwald is excellent. It’s disturbing how easy it is to sensationalize the chaotic initial “reporting” of an event and turn it into an accepted narrative. Again, I wouldn’t really care except that the false narrative is going to be used to implement new Patriot Act type laws giving the federal government broader reaching scope to collect data, spy, and enact further domestic restrictions. Much of the capital region of Washington DC is still a militarized green zone. Why?
  • On a recommendation from several friends, I signed up for MasterClass to get me some more learn’n in my head. With my soon-to-be increased free time (only one more full time shift to go!) I figure I may as well be productive. I just started my first class and so far I’m enjoying it.
  • With the fancy new motorcycle sitting in the garage, due to the unprecedented global warming that’s fallen in our area lately, I also needed a new riding suit. I’m big believer in ATGATT (all the gear, all the time). My previous motorcycle armor is from an earlier century and Mrs Troutdog has been on me to wear something a bit more modern. Once my standard 5,000 hours of YouTube research was done and I settled on which brand/model I was going to get, all that was left was what color? I had to laugh at myself. At my age I still find that I’m somewhat vain like a high school kid worried about how something “looks”. My new bike is mostly white. The outfit color I happened to like the most, and will be the coolest in the summer, is a very light grey. I was worried about looking a bit too much like a vintage Evil Knievel or Fat Elvis and almost ordered a green color I didn’t like, simply because I was concerned what people may think. Fortunately I’m old enough and (somewhat) mature enough to realize that A) nobody gives a shit what I look like, and B) I really don’t give a shit anymore what people think. I wish I’d learned that sort of confidence when I was younger. Peer pressure and the need to conform is a very human trait, but also a very destructive one (see global warming, mask wearing, woke culture, etc…). So, if you see a Fat Elvis looking guy riding down the street on a ginormous red white and blue bike, give me a wave and a big thumbs up. It’s good for my fragile ego.

Song of the day: Elvis Presley – A Little Less Conversation (original)

Cool, Daily Life, Government, Motivation

Where The Rubber Meets The Road
  • “Where theory is put into practice”. I’ve been babbling about adventure, seeing the sights, and exploring for a while. Now, I’m putting my money where my mouth is. I have acquired the dream adventure motorcycle. I travel next week to pick it up. I am giddy like a little schoolgirl. But I’m also nervous. On my current bike I’ve done short day trips and one overnight, but no real travel. Actually getting on the bike and heading off into the sunset with only a vague itinerary is a little scary. Am I going to like putting long miles in? Will I really make the effort to stop at all the little roadside attractions? Will I take pictures like I said I would? Will I actually talk to people (or even scarier, take street photos of people)? Do I want to eat alone in cafes? Will I make an effort to explore in the evenings or just sit in my motel room? Despite my online bravado, all these things are way out of my comfort zone. They make my stomach tingle a little bit. But I am over the moon excited to push myself and overcome fears. The timing works out perfectly. It’s still winter in my part of the world, so I have a few months to get used to the bike before spring and real travel can happen. Mrs Troutdog test rode Harleys yesterday, so hopefully it won’t be too long before she’s ready to join me from time to time as well. I’m super proud of her to overcome the fear of simply riding a motorcycle. It’s an exciting new chapter!
  • Speaking of snow, this video is a pretty funny representation of someone from the south traveling to cold weather. I’ve got friends who recently moved from LA to our mountain environment. Remember the Jimmy Kimmel segments of people in LA when it dropped to 60 degrees? That was them. Now they barely throw on a light jacket when it’s in the teens.
  • It’s hard to fathom the lunacy of this. “researchers believe that a fleet of specially-designed aircraft could spray sulfate particles into the lower stratosphere to cool down our planet and offset the effects of climate change”. It’s being partially funded by Bill Gates. Nope, can’t imagine any unintended consequences with this plan. Literally not a single prediction or climate model in the last 30 years has been accurate or come to fruition. The global warming cult is now back in full swing, backed by the full funding of the new administration. Every basic tenet of science is being ignored, all while demonizing anyone who disagrees as a flat earth denier.
  • Continuing with the unintended consequences theme, president Biden ordered all construction on the border wall stopped. There is now a section in New Mexico that is a mile short of connecting with an existing wall. Workers dropped their tools, shut down their equipment, and walked away. So now we just created a funnel – the only opening for 90 miles that will drop people right onto a local ranchers property. What could possibly go wrong? Government at it’s finest.
  • My fall from sports fandom is complete. I just realized the Super Bowl is tomorrow. Doesn’t matter because I have to work, but I wasn’t going to watch it anyway. Probably for the first time ever, I honestly couldn’t even tell you who was playing. Haven’t watched a single game or tuned into ESPN once. The last 4-5 years I’ve pretty much dropped all pro sports. It just seems to more and more of a waste of time. And the big ones, baseball, football, basketball, seem to be dominated by whinny millionaires. It’s hard to relate. Throw in several years of non stop pandering to “social justice” causes, and I’m out. Why do actors and athletes feel the need to ram their politics down your throat? I’m watching you for your acting or sport, not your personal views. Sigh. Anyway, this is from someone who at one time was in multiple concurrent fantasy leagues and watched SportsCenter nightly. I honestly don’t miss it. Ok, I will admit to missing the Super Bowl commercials.

Song of the day: Booker T. and MG’s (1967) GREEN ONIONS