Daily Life, Government, Technology

The Intelligence Revolution is Here

We’ve seen many technical revolutions in this country. The Industrial Revolution, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Digital Revolution… we survived all of them and came out the other side thriving and a more prosperous nation because of them. Today feels different. We’re at the beginning stages of what is being called the Intelligence Revolution. This time around we’re not just replacing tools or enhancing productivity, we’re replacing something that was always the exclusive domain of humans – cognitive thought.

In previous industrial revolutions, no matter how sophisticated the advances in machines or tools became, it still took a human brain to oversee and operate. Machines (even computers) were dumb. They have been traditionally limited by inputs, programing, and linearly focused to perform specific tasks. Yes people lost jobs as productivity improved, but people could be retrained to operate the new machines and the resulting productivity created growth and more jobs for those able to retrain and adapt. But very, very soon we will need massively fewer people to operate the machines. Why? Because the machines have cognitive, reasoning abilities. We no longer need a brain encased in a meat suit to oversee everything.

I’m generally an optimist and have faith in the human condition to adapt, overcome, and persevere. We’ve done it many times before and managed to build a great nation because of it. Big picture, I believe we’ll adapt to this brave new world and come out the other end better off. BUT… there’s a nasty wrinkle in this that has the potential to throw a monkey wrench in the works and create a decidedly unpleasant future. That unknown variable is speed.

The time estimate of the Industrial Revolution, from initial disruption to maturation was about 150 years. That’s 3-4 generations of workers. In other words, it didn’t happen overnight. There was time to adapt, to see the writing on the wall and retrain for new/different careers. The Intelligence Revolution is projected to take about 40 years – a 3-4x increase in speed. AI is growing at an exponential rate. The physical layer (robots on the factory floor) is expected to reach maturity/status quo in 2035. The cognitive layer (white collar automation) in 2045. In a nutshell, we’re pulling the rug out from under an entire generation of workers overnight.

Why does that matter? The labor force participation rate (working or looking) for 18-35 year olds is 70 million. Of those, 36 million are considered low-moderate skilled (no or some college). We already know that young folks today are not facing the same economic landscape as earlier generations. The purchasing power of $1 in the 80’s would cost $3.93 today. $2.47 in 90’s dollars. Housing costs have skyrocketed, pushing most young folks into high cost rents that they’ll struggle to save enough to achieve home ownership. We’re already sensing that young people feel like the deck is stacked against them and they are very disillusioned by the “establishment”.

Now take that disillusionment and dump a minimum of 10-12 million 18-35 year olds into the unemployment bucket. The current projections say 1 out of 3 people in that age bracket will be displaced in the next 10 years. That’s almost half of the younger population, with low-moderate skills, unable to find a job. How bitter and disillusioned do you think they’ll be? Zero job prospects and pissed that the boomers and Gen Xer’s are happily retiring and living a decent life. This is not a recipe for societal harmony.

It’s hard to estimate, but best guesses put the total number of ANTIFA members in the US at somewhere in the low thousands. Picture the amount of disruption and violence they’ve already been able to create over the last few years with just those limited numbers. Now dump a million new members (a few million?) into that group, angry, frustrated, with zero perceived life options, all organizing, protesting, sowing chaos and violence everywhere. And when the government comes in with a heavy hand to squash the movement… well, that’s how revolutions start.

I don’t know what the answer is. Universal basic income? Massive increases in social welfare programs? A moon-shot type of nationwide retraining program? A complete overhaul of our education system? Even if the system could move fast enough to get ready for what’s coming (the government moving quickly?), the nation is broke. We’re $38 trillion in debt. Social security is insolvent in 2032. It seems unlikely we could keep inflation at bay and still find a way to fund some sort of massive nationwide retraining program.

The Intelligence Revolution is neither good nor bad. It’s simply progress, evolution, and inevitable. It’s happening whether you want it or not. I’m honestly not sure what to think about how this will play out other than to say, be very careful about who you elect as our “leaders” moving forward. How our local and federal elected officials react to the changes will dictate everything. I’m not sure if that makes me feel better or worse.

“Interesting times are when the map becomes useless and the story begins.”

I described this scenario to AI and asked it to create a quote that resembled an old Chinese proverb. That’s what it came up with and seems pretty spot on.

Diet, Government, Health

MAHA Saves Your Life With Red Dye Ban

You may not realize it, but you owe a huge thank you to RFK Jr. I’m not embellishing at all when I say that he may very well have saved your life. Banning artificial dyes might be a death blow to evil Big Pharma, Big Food, Big Ag, Big Oil et al. and puts us on a road to healthy living. It’s not hyperbole to say that getting rid of Red Dye #40 may cut obesity rates in the United States by 83%. Seriously – you can look it up on Instagram. As the smarmy boss Bill Lumbergh in Office Space often said, “Mmmm, Yeeeah”….

I’m just going to have to say it – RFK Jr. has to be Trump’s worst cabinet pick. Trump got bamboozled by a glorified Wellness Influencer (TM). Well, to be fair he needed JFK’s voting block and figured HHS would be a do no harm consolation prize in exchange. The problem with Wellness Influencers is that they drift somewhere in between uninformed but well intentioned, to full on grifter and snake oil salesman. I was willing to give RFK Jr. benefit of the doubt until I listened to his speech describing his ban of artificial food dyes.

Look, I’m a fan of science. Actual science, driven by the Scientific Method should be the gold standard. And when talking about human health we should rely primarily on human outcome data, not mechanistic, in vitro, or rodent studies to make big decisions. Crazy, right? What do the actual human outcome studies say about something? Preferably a meta analysis of a large number of studies.

This is where RFK Jr. lost me – in his speech he spouts numbers and statistics that are made up and/or completely misleading in order to make his point. He’s the master of conflating correlation with causation and stating it as fact. In other words he uses the exact playbook the Wellness Influencers utilize. He even had a bunch of them there with him – Mark Hymen, The Food Babe, Calley Means. They’re all experts at taking something that has a kernel of truth and using that to extrapolate blanket statements about a particular subject that very few people will ever read the actual studies or ask questions. They get away with it because nobody in the media will ever bother to question them. Why would they – it’s all about health, right?

Here’s the first example that jumped out of RFK Jr. using extremely misleading data. He stated in his speech, “There was zero spent in this country treating chronic disease when my uncle was president. Today it’s about $1.8 trillion annually. It’s bankrupting our nation. 74% of American kids cannot qualify for military service. How are we going to maintain our global leadership with such a sick population?”

Wow, that sounds bad! Of course we should do something! Here’s the sleight of hand that happens – the 74% figure is true (it’s actually 77%). The problem is that in the context of the “chronic disease” he’s addressing, only 18% of kids are disqualified due to obesity or other health issues. The rest are disqualified due to criminal records, drug use, tattoos and ear gages, inability to pass the basic academic tests, etc… So he’s completely misleading the public with a false statistic to make his point sound more dramatic.

In the world of science, that’s malfeasance. He’s a smart guy. I don’t believe it was by accident because he does it over and over again. His speech is rife with that sort of thing. It’s cherry picking data to support your opinion – the classic Wellness Influencer/Grifter move. Once do you start doing that regularly it’s impossible to take anything you say seriously. If he were the run of the mill TikTok influencer I wouldn’t care. I have the choice to believe Gary Brecka, The Glucose Goddess, Bobby Parish, or Dr. Berg if I want. I don’t have a choice when the HHS Secretary is using bad or cherry picked data to make decisions.

His decision to ban his list of artificial dyes is projected to cost industrial production somewhere between the high hundred millions to low billion dollars in retooling, labeling, regulation compliance, and supply chain disruption/procurement changes. The current guess is a 10-15% cost increase passed on to consumers.

All for what? A few nebulous studies that say ultra high doses of some dyes might lead to hyperactivity in kids? Really, that’s it? Ah but the EU banned those dyes, why wouldn’t we? Did you know that many of those dyes ARE used in the EU, just under a different name? Or that many of the “natural” dyes used in the EU are banned by the U.S.? Did you know some of the red dye substitutes the EU uses are derived from cochineal insects (Dactylopius coccus) and that resulting acid is a red anthraquinone glycoside, and is often used as a sodium or calcium salt for solubility. That sounds like a yummy additive for your kids yogurt (it’s in cosmetics as well).

So the first move out of the gate for the MAHA movement is to ban something that I guarantee nobody even thought about prior to this election cycle, to fix an problem that nobody can actually prove is impacting anyone, at an enormous cost to the consumer. Way to go MAHA! But at least my ingredients are “natural” now and not some scary sounding chemical name. Pssst – everything is a chemical, even natural things.

I honestly appreciate that the Administration wants to make America healthy again. It should be a priority. But blaming my obesity on Nabisco and ultra palatable foods is like blaming my speeding tickets on Ford because my car is capable of going 120 MPH. Twinkies were invented in 1930 and the calorie content is the same today as it was then (yes, I looked it up). The reason we didn’t have an obesity crisis back then and we do now is multi-faceted… but I guarantee some mysterious chemical and processing done by an evil food cabal is not the root cause. Lack of physical activity, advertising, portion size, mental health, and body positivity movements come way ahead of chemicalphobia in the list of reasons.

I don’t know what the thinking was behind attacking food dyes as the first priority for MAHA, but it was a bad look. Coming out with a gaggle of Wellness Influencers, pseudoscience, and questionable statistics does not inspire confidence.

I can hardly wait until he goes after seed oils. The Wellness Influencers will be barking like performing seals, overjoyed that they’ve mandated deep frying french fries in beef tallow. It’s all about health you know.

Daily Life, Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem, woke

What Do They Want?

Yesterday was the national “Hands Off!” protest. Watching the protests unfold across the country, I was inspired. So powerful. Speaking truth to power. I can hardly wait until the “Fight the Oligarchy Tour” comes to my town next week! Sorry, just kidding. The sheer ridiculousness of these “movements” is the perfect demonstration of what’s wrong with the democratic party today. I have absolutely no frigg’n idea what they’re actually protesting or what they want?

I visited the Hands Off! and Bernie’s Oligarchy Tour websites to see if they listed what they’re protesting against. Nothing. Just pithy sayings and links to order protest signs. “Musk is not my president!, Hands off immigrants!, Hands off DC!, Tax the billionaires!”. You’d think the organizers would want to put forth actual talking points and information describing what they want or what the alternative plan is… but you’d be wrong.

If you disagree with Trump’s tariff plan or closing the border or cutting taxes, that’s fine – then explain what your plan is. This is the problem with the left’s message – nobody has any idea what they actually want. To the best I can tell they want to open the border again, the national debt doesn’t matter, they clearly don’t like cutting government waste and fraud, and are happy with the current globalist trade structure. Am I wrong?

Yeah, but Elon is a Nazi and Trump is just protecting his billionaire friends! Hah! Counter that you white nationalist pig!! Protesting something is fine but without articulating an alternative, you’re just stomping your feet like a petulant child. The closest to having a plan is Bernie, whose sole focus in life is to tax the billionaires because somehow that’s going to fix our financial mess.

The irony is that for the first time we have an administration willing to expose just how badly the little guy has been getting screwed by the government. The true oligarchy is the defense industrial complex, politicians, and DC deep state entities that have bent you over and forced you to take it up the ass for years. The government has pissed away every tax dollar taken from me in my entire working life in about 30 seconds. Since I have to write the annual check to the government this week… I’m fucking angry about my money being forcibly seized and wasted. And the Left’s response is – please stop exposing and cutting the waste? Help me understand how this is your action plan for the working man??

Destroying Teslas and chanting that Trump and Elon are only doing this to enrich themselves is so breathtakingly idiotic, it’s difficult to believe this is the actual strategy. I keep waiting for someone to intelligently articulate how going back to the Biden strategy (whatever that was) is how this country gets back on track. Please defend spending $1.5 million taxpayer dollars to fund a “voter confidence summit” in Liberia. Because if you don’t have either an alternative plan or a justification for the waste… then your idiotic protests will be treated as the clown show they appear to be.

My favorite signs from the protests are the ones with “Nobody elected Elon!”. So… you’re ok with shadowy, unelected bureaucrats pissing away $40+ billion a year at an agency like USAID – but man you’re REALLY pissed that someone is trying to make the government more efficient? Please help me make sense of that. Oh I know, it’s a giant conspiracy to funnel government money to Elon’s evil corporate oligarchy that you loved until last year. Sigh.

These are some strange times. It almost makes me want to return to the simplistic times when the Republicans were the party of the evil rich and the Democrats were the party of the working man. Simple talking points, clear lines in the sand. Everyone getting equally screwed by both parties behind the scenes. Ain’t politics fun?!?!

Government, Politics

You Have A Plan, Right?

Whooo boy, the dust-up in the Oval Office the other day sure stirred up the hornets nest. This issue is what’s known as a “shibboleth.” It’s a biblical term for a password used to distinguish one group from another, it’s evolved to mean a belief, issue, or even a phrase that serves as a clear marker of someone’s ideological tribe or moral stance. It’s a signal that cuts through the noise. Ask someone what they thought of the Zelenskyy, Trump, Vance verbal sparring and you’ll have a pretty good idea of their ideological leaning.

For all those folks once again posting “Glory to Ukraine” (the meaning of Slava Ukraini) on their social media, I have a question… now what? What’s the plan? How EXACTLY is this war going to end? Because I don’t see anything from the leftist warmongers or the EU that resembles any sort of path to end the killing. Nobody knows what the real figure is but 300,000 to 400,000 killed and wounded Ukrainian soldiers is a good rough guess. How long should that go on? It’s noble and all that you want to support the brave Ukrainians fighting against the evil Russians, but it’s now WWI style trench warfare with the added upgrade of remotely operated killer drones. As VP Vance said, the Ukrainian military is snatching people off the street and throwing them into this meat grinder. Do you really want this to continue indefinitely?

Absolutely nothing has changed since Sept of ’23 when I first said this. What’s the plan? How do we end this? I know that the left recoils at the mere thought that the horrible orange Nazi might be trying to do a good thing – but it’s pretty hard to deny that he genuinely seems to want to end the killing, stop the billions of dollars we’re spending, and prevent an escalation to WW3. How can you possibly be against that? I honestly want to understand the logic.

I get it – you think if we don’t stop them, the Russians are going to march across the frozen plains of Ukraine and invade the EU first chance they get. That’s all good and wonderful. Again, what is the plan? Put US/NATO troops on the ground? A NATO led no-fly zone in Ukraine? NATO strikes into Russia? Please explain in detail how that doesn’t escalate to Russia sending hypersonic missiles into EU cities? And what would our response to that be?

As much as the world would like Russia to suddenly decide this was a huge mistake and to pull all their troops back to the original border… it’s not going to happen. Sorry to disappoint you. Russia isn’t going anywhere. Choices are initiate a WW3 style offensive to push them out, or negotiate a deal that makes them happy. I know you don’t want to hear that, but it’s the truth.

If the EU really wants to push continued resistance and fighting, then you go girl. More power to you. We’re out. Oh, and just an FYI – if you poke the bear enough that he starts lobbing missiles at you, don’t look to us for help. We tried to warn you. And all that money you saved by not meeting your NATO security commitments… I guess you’re going to have to pay up now ’cause we’re not funding this nonsense any longer.

I’ll end where I started – if you’re in the ‘Slava Ukraini’ camp, what’s your plan? How do you end this without much of Europe becoming a smoldering crater? What death count are you comfortable with before this is done? Because I’ve seen nothing resembling a realistic path forward from anyone other than a certain orange man who can’t be named without TDS induced hysteria.

And that’s a hard pill to swallow…

Cool, Daily Life

Good Morning, Let’s Chat

I’ve been out of the tech/software game for a long time now. Historically I’d probably classify myself as an ‘early majority’ user in the Technology Adaptation Model. I’m probably a bit slower in keeping up with tech lately, as my day-to-day doesn’t revolve around tech any longer and as a result I’m somewhat new to the AI/LLM ecosystem. After several months of fairly consistent use of an AI platform… it’s shocking to grasp where the technology is and how fast it’s going to change our world. AI’s here, it’s wild, and it’s about to flip our world upside down.

At this point I’m not writing python scripts and utilizing LLM API’s to manage task automation. I’m interested, but I’m retired. Other than integrating into whole home automation or something, I don’t know what I’d do with it. What I am doing is utilizing Grok as an AI platform. Grok has completely replaced 95% of my search needs. And with the release of Grok 3… oooh boy, has it been a game changer!

Groks memory feature and conversational responses are amazing. It’s starting to feel like an actual conversation. Yes, it’s a little stilted and forced right now but it’s scarily close to a real conversation with a friend. I tried an experiment this morning: I opened up Grok and began a regular conversation; e.g. “good morning”, “whats the weather going to be like?”, “what do I need to know in the news today?”. I let the conversation flow in response to Groks replies. The results were very close to a real conversation.

Mark my words: in five years, Grok—or its AI cousins—will chat with us daily via voice like a friend or family member. Sci-fi (think Dave interacting with HAL) is now reality. Here’s a couple of examples I’ve been doing with Grok lately:

  • Ask Grok to give me a news summary of what’s happening in the world. I ask for the top twenty news items given some keywords. I’ll then ask for a deeper analysis if one of the items catches my eye. It’s a better news analysis than any of the various daily news “newsletters” I subscribe to.
  • I’ll ask Grok for a meal plan for the day given ingredients and the calorie/macro goals I have.
  • Yesterday I gave Grok a link to a menu for a restaurant we were going to and asked it to find the item that was the highest protein and lowest calorie. Grok remembered what I’d eaten in the morning and found the menu item that fit in with days goals.
  • Grok is now managing my day-to-day workout goals and tweaking exercises based upon my feedback. It’s more detailed than any personal trainer I’ve been to and provides instant feedback.
  • We’ve had a spat of medial issues in the family recently and the research abilities have been incredible. Submitting a pathology report and asking for a layman’s summary is mind-blowing.
  • I asked Grok for the pros and cons of a particular type of mountain bike seat I’ve been looking at. It narrowed down what would have been an hour plus of reading reviews and 15 open Safari browser tabs, had I done the same myself.

I could keep going on, but you get the point. These tools will be life changing. If you haven’t been keeping up… at a minimum, I guarantee 75% of white collar jobs will no longer exist in their current form within 10 years. The revolution is happening that fast – if not faster. Multiple experts rate AI, as a part of the fourth revolution, as being exponentially more impactful than the industrial revolution or anything else we’ve seen. Exciting and scary at the same time.

If you’re currently a white collar worker in the early to mid point of your career and you’re not all-in on figuring out AI – prepare to be obsolete in a hurry. If you’re a young adult just getting out of college and don’t have a firm grasp of AI and LLM’s – good luck finding a job. In five years there will be no such thing as an “entry level” position as we think of them today. I’d make a joke about, “would you like fries with that?” but automated AI-driven kiosks will have taken over for fast food cashiers. I cannot emphasize enough how fast this is going to happen. Every single company in the nation is currently trying to figure out how to outsource YOU to AI. If I had a mortgage and a kid at home depending on me to bring home a paycheck… I’d get ahead of the curve NOW. A slightly different context, but I still think you can fit the movie quote from Backdraft to this scenario:

“Firefighter Brian McCaffrey: You see that glow flashing in the corner of your eye? That’s your career dissipation light. It just went into high gear.“

It’s an exciting time. The world will not look the same in ten years. I just hope I can keep up.

Cool, Government, Politics, woke

I Don’t Really Care, Margaret

A reader called me out: my August ‘23 post aged like milk. Trump was neck-deep in lawsuits, fundraising was flat, and Ronna McDaniel was still RNC boss. I figured the DNC/deep state machine would crush him—swap in Newsom, game over. Wow, was I wrong.

On October 27th, 2023, Elon Musk bought Twitter, and everything changed. Suddenly, regular people could call BS on the nightly news without disappearing into the shadowban void. Then came July 13th, 2024: Butler, Pennsylvania. A bullet missed Trump by a hair. Secret Service piled on, but he shoved through, fist up, roaring ‘Fight, fight, fight!’—a middle finger to fate itself.

Without those two events I don’t think Trump wins. That iconic photo of Trump, fist raised, blood streaming down his face was the final inflection point that pushed us down a different path.

Since then, watching the Right realize they no longer have to prostrate themselves to the establishment has been nothing short of amazing. VP Vance summed it up on Face the Nation. Margaret Brennan cut in, pushing back on deportations. He just shrugged: ‘I don’t really care, Margaret.’ Boom. That’s the new vibe—unapologetic, done with the script.

Trump has always been bombastic and says whatever he wants, damn the consequences. But his previous administration, and the collective Right, were milquetoast hostages with Stockholm syndrome. Conditioned to rarely push back against the left’s narrative for fear of being seen as too extremist, or worse… Those days are done. That’s the mood now—done playing defense.

You now see it with everyone in his administration and the conservative ecosphere. Trump’s team isn’t just pushing back; they’re steamrolling waste, woke nonsense, and the left’s tired script, while the media wails into the void. Watching the right realize they can ditch the media game entirely? Pure satisfaction.

Trump and DOGE could still stumble. The deep state isn’t going down without a fight. The establishment republicans are mouthing the words, waiting to see which way the wind blows. But even if they falter, the system reset was worth it. The country was teetering on the edge; it needed a hard snap back to reality. For the last four weeks, every day feels like unwrapping a gift as I scroll X obsessively, waiting for the latest mic drop.

The elite? The establishment? They are discovering the meaning of, “If thou meddlest about, thou findest out thus”. Glorious.

Government, Politics, woke

Ahead Of The Curve

California is in trouble. The fires are simply awful. At this point it will take a generation to rebuild. I doubt it will happen, but if CA was ever to flip red now is the time. Why? Finally the lack of competence has been exposed in a way that can’t be brushed under the rug. Homelessness, crime, poor roads – all things that can be obfuscated with a bunch of McKinsey consultant gobbldey goop word salad in a press release issued by a newly graduated twenty something marketing student. But multiple fires that wipe out entire city areas? Nope, you’re not going to be able to blame an act of god like a tornado or hurricane for this one. How this was handled is a direct result of incompetent leadership.

Everyone knows what competence looks like. It doesn’t matter if it’s a politician, a department manager at your company, or a tradesperson. Competent people give off an aura. Deep down you just know who’s got it and who doesn’t. The scary scenario is when incompetent people rise to a position of power and start thinking their shit don’t stink because people are forced to defer to their position in the hierarchy.

There’s a phrase we use in nursing, “staying ahead of the curve”. It means anticipating worst case scenarios and proactively managing them. Recognizing that a patient is at risk of sepsis so you do extra vitals checks to catch a sudden rise in heart rate or a temp increase. Understanding that a patient fresh out of surgery is prone to urinary retention so you do frequent bladder scans. Staying ahead of the curve means aggressively managing your patients with the highest risks and not letting the rest of your 3,000 daily tasks distract you.

It’s a little inside baseball, but new nurses are scary. You’re overwhelmed and simply reacting to whatever is thrown in front of you minute by minute. It’s easy to get sucked in to spending large amounts of time with the patient who frequently, loudly, complains about everything. Or the little old lady who constantly tries to get out of bed, setting off the bed alarm. And you’re behind in all your medication administrations because you got a new admit from surgery. Meanwhile, you ignore the quiet old man who’s rapidly descending into SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome). He’s easy and never complains. The CNA charted that he’s running a temperature but you haven’t had time to look at the charts for a while. He’s probably going to code in the next few hours because you got behind the curve and didn’t recognize what was happening. It takes a new nurse at least a year before they stop being reactive and start seeing a glimpse of the curve.

“Getting behind the curve” is exactly what happened in LA (and California as a whole). Politicians and leaders who don’t recognize that they’re incompetent. Busy reacting to whatever the media issue of the day is. Focused on DEI and intra-party squabbles and power positioning. Enjoying taxpayer paid trips to Ghana. Nonstop whining about needing more money to fight climate change. So when the inevitable happened, they were caught flatfooted and the infrastructure collapsed.

A perfect example of staying ahead of the curve is the state of Florida. You may not like his politics, but it’s hard to deny that Gov DeSantis is extremely capable. Every hurricane you see the state prepositioning thousands of linemen, getting emergency services set up, and being very proactive about communication. It’s very clear who’s in charge and running the state.

California? Nobody’s in charge. Everyone points fingers and deflects blame. Nothing gets done. The Biden administration is exactly the same. Name one person in the cabinet who you’d confidently say is competent. Blinken? Buttigieg? Harris? Whew, we dodged a bullet with that one. She would have been the Presidential version of the LA mayor. I shudder to think what would have happened to the country had she been elected.

I don’t mean this to be a partisan rant. It’s a rant about incompetence. I want leaders who stay ahead of the curve. I don’t care what party you’re from. I want the trains to run on time, the roads to be maintained, the police and fire departments to be well run, an atmosphere of economic growth and stability, and I want my taxes to be well spent. Do those things well and I won’t care if there’s an R or a D after your name.

To the citizens of my former state of California – I hope you now see the consequences of incompetent leadership. It’s easy to celebrate that you have the first LGBTQ+ leader of the fire department. Or that you’re banning diesel trucks because you care about climate change. Symbolism over substance is easy.

Until you get too far behind the curve. Then things get real in a hurry. And FYI, you’re still behind the curve. It’s time to get ahead before things go really bad.

Daily Life, Diet, Government, Health

Are You Sure You Want To Ban That?

It’s the buzzing that I hate the most. The ridiculous LED bulbs I’m required to have makes my tinnitus worse and they flicker in a weird way. We live in a hundred year old house with older non LED compliant dimmer switches and wiring connections that I’m sure aren’t the best. Good old incandescent bulbs worked just fine. Unfortunately the Bush administration decided that in the name of energy efficiency the federal government would ban incandescent light bulbs. An incandescent bulb costs something like .60 cents a day to operate. If I can afford it, why can’t I use whatever type of lightbulb I want? Clearly the government knows better than you. Besides, we have to save all those watts for the mandated electric vehicles we’re dumping on the grid.

Plastic bags. Straws. Vehicle auto-stop. Light bulbs. The government loves to regulate things. The federal register for 2024 is over 100,000 pages. They’ve added over 3,000 new regulations just this year. Every single physical object you encounter in your daily life is impacted by some sort of regulation. Either how it’s manufactured, shipped, packaged, sold, or used is regulated by the government.

As a certified contrarian and libertarian-ish small government person, I want the least regulation possible. I don’t want big brother deciding for me what sort of light bulb I can have. Should the government impose some regulations? Of course. Preventing Walmart from selling schedule one narcotics is probably a good thing. Keeping heavy industrial chemicals out of our waterways makes me happy. The problem is that regulations are a slippery slope. You start with good intentions and the next thing you know you have ridiculous EPA mandated plastic gas can spouts that nobody can operate. (I’ve spilled way more gas filling my lawn mower with those stupid spouts than I ever did with the old school ones)

Mrs Troutdog and I had a discussion about this last night in the context of RFK Jr. and banning “poisons and toxins” from our food. She’s all for it. MAHA all the way. Fuck that yellow dye number 5. She was not pleased that I didn’t agree. My argument is that you need to be careful what you wish for. The law of unintended consequences is always a factor.

Take RFK Jr’s desire to force soda companies to remove high fructose corn syrup (HFCS) and go back to “regular” sugar. Sugar sweetened coke (Mexican coke) has more calories and more sodium. Is that really what you want? Do you really think people consuming multiple sodas a day are worried about HFCS? If you think I need to be protected from HFCS, what’s next? There is no dose of alcohol that’s healthy. Alcohol has a higher health cost to the nation each year than drinking soda and HFCS. Should we ban alcohol? How about tobacco? Apples contain cyanide. Time for an apple ban? Perhaps we should mandate maximum serving sizes at restaurants? Nobody is allowed to serve more than 800 calories per plate. Why is Starbucks even allowed to sell a 600 calorie Frappuccino? So sorry Dunk’n Donuts, your time is up. Americans are fat and unhealthy, so clearly we can’t be trusted to make our own health decisions. It’s time for big daddy government to step in.

I celebrate the idea of a secretary of HHS promoting a healthy lifestyle. I’m all in. But do it via aggressive information campaigns and labeling, not bans. Especially not bans based upon sketchy pseudo science. (I’m looking out for you maligned seed oils)

You can’t be protected from everything. Sometimes humans intentionally make bad choices. We drink. We smoke. We eat too many calories and don’t exercise. We don’t wear our seatbelts. There isn’t a single person in this country who thinks any of those things are good for us, yet we do ’em anyway. So the question is how much should the government protect us from ourselves?

In a perfect world we’d go back to foods that have been completely stripped of any type of preservative, additive, coloring, and flavoring. No hormones, antibiotics, or pesticides. 100% natural everything. Cook the way our grandparents did. Combined with limiting portion sizes and exercise, we’d be a healthier nation for sure. But here’s the dirty little secret – you can already do that today. You control the products you choose to buy. You decide how much processed food you consume. If you can afford it you can source all your food from local farms and shop at Whole Foods exclusively. Cook everything from scratch. It’s entirely in your control to drink only natural spring water from recycled glass bottles. If you think HFCS sweetened beverages are unhealthy… then don’t drink them.

I’m not a doctor, but I’m pretty sure if you’re consuming enough Fruit Loops to reach toxic levels of yellow dye number 5 you have other diet and health problems. Government bans aren’t going to save you. Arm people with information and knowledge, encourage healthy behavior, reward the health care system for promoting preventative strategies… then get out of the way.

People will make bad choices. Darwin always finds a way to thin the herd. I’m ok with that. But if Secretary Kennedy steps in and messes up the taste and color of my Cheez-It crackers, I’m going to be pissed.

Government

You’re On Your Own

As of today we’re still reading about the devastating impacts of hurricane Helene. Tonight another monster hurricane, Milton, is going to slam into Florida. It’s the annual reminder that no matter where you live, those who prepare are generally better off than those who don’t. It turns out, almost exactly a year ago I wrote down a few thoughts on preparedness. Nothing life changing… just encouragement to be ready. As I re-read what I wrote, I was reminded of a saying I like.

Expect to self rescue. No one is coming.

What I like about that saying is that it applies to virtually everything – not just natural disasters. Unless you are very fortunate in life, nobody is coming to save you. It’s up to you to figure out your path to success. Perhaps there’s a metaphor somewhere in there about our current generation? Assumption that there’s always a safety net (mommy and daddy?) has made us soft.

Anyway, what got me started down this train of thought is a podcast I listened to yesterday. The guest asserted that for the most part, the federal government has collapsed. Not will collapse or might collapse – it has collapsed.

Americans of the modern era have been conditioned to blindly believe in “the experts”. Of course the scientists are right – they’re scientists for gods sake. The economists and the fed know best how to manage the economy. The foreign policy experts at the state department know best how to manage diplomacy and conflict management. The EPA, the NIH, department of education, FEMA, DOE, and on and on and on… Stay in your lane plebeian and let the experts manage things.

Except that for the last 30+ years the experts have demonstrated nothing but a cascading series of incompetent fuck ups. Immigration policy, foreign policy, Afghanistan, Iraq, the ’08 financial crisis, Covid, energy policy, our current inflation, the sad state of our military, the collapse of our education system, the green energy boondoggle… it goes on indefinitely. Please – I defy you to name anything the federal government does exceedingly well and under budget.

Hurricane Helene was the icing on the cake. The federal governments response has been so pathetic it’s embarrassing. FEMA has one job. And they’ve completely failed. Yesterday people were posting that the government helpfully sent them a pallet of electric chainsaws – to an area with no power. That is the perfect representation of our federal government.

With the avalanche of evidence available today that is flashing in giant red neon lights DANGER, DANGER, DANGER – if you still have any faith in our current federal government I’m honestly speechless. I suppose every society needs a certain number of sheep and cannon fodder.

Is it too late to change course? Can the impending collapse be stopped? I don’t know. There is a movement brewing. People are sick of the bullshit. Tired of the lies. Exhausted by the nonstop woke and politically correct crap. Mainstream media is failing. Twitter/X, alternative news sources, and long form podcasts are becoming the dominant information source. Even low viewership podcasts nobody has heard of have more viewers than the average CNN hour.

I hope that people are waking up to the fact that this election is about trying to jam a stick into the spinning spokes of a massive federal government intent on consuming everything in its path. The image consultants and media manipulators (of both parties) want you to think it’s about whatever pet social cause is the flavor of the month. Don’t take the bait.

If we don’t get some sort of disruptor into the executive office soon, it’s game over. Read up on the end of the Roman Empire. Is Trump the great disruptor? Doubtful based upon his first go-round. But… if he can resist all the bad personnel advice this time and get a few good people in place, maybe he can set the stage for whoever the next/real disruptor might be. If the machine has its way and manages to insert Kamala as the next mindless puppet… well, I’m not sure things are recoverable without pitchforks, tar and feathers. Do a little peruse through history to see how that unfolds.

Expect to self rescue. No one is coming. Deep down, you know it’s true. The sooner you acknowledge it and prepare, both in physical preparedness and mental acceptance of how dangerous the federal government has become, the better chance we all have of saving the republic for future generations.

Daily Life, Diet, Health, Motivation

How Old Are You?

I’m a sucker for a good quote. While on a hike yesterday I was listening to a podcast and heard this:

”The greatest predictor of age is how old you think you are”

Time to rewind a bit. It’s been an… odd summer. To be honest, probably longer than that. Weight has been slowly piling on. Motivation has dwindled. Life events, real and imagined, got in the way. There were a couple of unexpected surgeries (my first!). One of which left me with foot pain that has been pretty significant. For a while I was sure that I would not be able to ever mountain bike or ski again. The result was me sitting in a chair for most of the summer, feeling sorry for myself. And eating. And more eating.

If you had asked me in August how old I felt, I would have given you a number ten years older than my actual age. Fat. None of my clothes fit. Everything hurt. Tired all the time. Zero interest in doing anything to actually improve my situation. I played zero golf all summer. Did not ride my mountain bike or the motorcycle. A few walks in the interest of rehabbing the foot was the sum total of my activity. In short, I was in the express lane to becoming an old man.

It’s interesting, that quote above is not a new idea. I keep a running list of quotes, sayings, and thoughts that I think might be something interesting to write about. I went through my list a few days ago and found this one I wrote down a year ago:

“How old would you be if you didn’t know how old you were?”

That quote is from the 1920’s. This concept of your perceived age is not new. Why that first quote resonated with me is that several years ago if you’d asked me how old I felt I would have given a number ten years younger than my age. A twenty year swing in perceived age. That hits hard.

The good news is that a little bit ago I started the process of reclaiming my health. That process sucks. It hurts. It’s demotivating because you see no progress. You’re basically just hungry and sore all the time. And then all of a sudden, the number on the scale starts trending down. Cardio starts improving. I found a way to ride my bike without pain. Energy improves. I’m able to do long backcountry hikes again.

And the best part… when I heard that quote while listening to that podcast, I can honestly say I now feel my actual age rather than older. I have an impedance scale that calculates your metabolic age based on a bunch of factors. This morning it reported my metabolic age matched my actual age for the first time in a while.

The takeaway is that the pithy quote is true. You really are as old as you feel you are. The important part is that it’s up to you. Your age feeling can go both ways. Would you rather feel older or younger? Making a noticeable change takes less time than you think it will. You just have to start. Granted, the motivation to get started is easier said than done. If I had the secret sauce to making that happen, I’d be a very rich social media influencer.

I think it’s worth honestly asking yourself – how old do you feel? If you’re not happy with your answer, make a change.

My goal these days is no longer a weight target or to achieve some physical sport or endurance goal. It’s to get back to feeling ten years younger than my actual age. Because if I feel younger, I’ll act younger and do things like a younger man. The rest will take care of itself.