Month: May 2020

Confirmation bias, Government, Health, Motivation, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

Whatever You Think, You’re Wrong

Cool things, random thoughts, advice, and independent thinking from someone who’s been around the sun a few times.

  • In difficult times it’s natural to want an expert to tell you the definitive answer. We don’t deal well with uncertainty. Right now the social medias are chock full of people pontificating, lecturing, and shaming people by posting whatever “expert” opinion happens to fit their view of the world. The problem is… nobody really knows diddly squat yet. Seriously. Whatever you think we know is probably wrong to some extent. Every study you cite, I guarantee I can find an opposing study that says the opposite. It will be years and massive amounts of data analysis before we really understand this zombie bat flu virus. Seasonal influenza is probably the most studied virus ever – and we still don’t fully understand everything about it. This shit is complicated and takes a crapload of research to make any meaningful progress.

    This doesn’t mean there aren’t elements of truth in all the stuff you see being posted. It’s just that the real truth is nuanced, and will take a lot more data and time to tease out. Is Hydroxychloroquine an effective treatment? Possibly, given a very specific set of conditions we don’t understand yet. Are masks effective? Probably, given certain environmental conditions. Lockdown vs herd immunity? Way too early to fully make a judgement. The point is that real science takes time. Take every breathless claim posted on Twitter/Facebook/YouTube with a grain of salt.
  • The real failure is our governments inability to react quickly to actual measurable trends. They pick a one size fits all strategy and choose to die on that hill rather than adapt when data shows things aren’t what we originally thought. The under 65 and no comorbidities crowd aren’t impacted in any statistical meaningful rate by this pandemic. So why aren’t we modifying our approach to protect just those folks? Instead we’ll make everyone suffer because, god forbid, we admit we didn’t fully understand when this started. Changing your approach with the arrival of new (verifiable) data is the very foundation of good science. I think I read that somewhere.
  • We were finally able to join the modern era in internet speed. We live in the very first neighborhood built in our city so our infrastructure has been lacking. I was very pleased a number of years ago when we were able to upgrade to DSL and a blistering 33 Mbps download speed. They just ran fiber to our area and this morning I’m seeing 881 Mbps. Praise be, as the Handmaidens say.
  • Our hospital is virtually out of hand sanitizer. At least two-thirds of the containers on my floor are empty. How is this possible? As usual, reality on the ground doesn’t match the fancy claims our government makes.
  • I never saw Breaking Bad when it came out. Binge watched it the last couple of weeks. What a fantastic series. Just started Better Call Saul and it seems equally good.
  • Joe Rogan’s podcast jumping to Spotify is an interesting development. Google/YouTube’s censorship strategies are starting to get noticed.
  • In our corner of the world, this has been a cold, wet spring. It needs to get warm and dry soon or I’m going to lose it. Every day my motivation to go outside and recreate dwindles… which leads to my not caring what I eat. This is a poor combination. Sitting at home reading internet conspiracy theories on the social medias for hours is no way to go through life son…

Song of the day: “Shut up and let me go” The Ting Tings

Government, Health, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

Won’t Get Fooled Again

Cool things, random thoughts, advice, and independent thinking from someone who’s been around the sun a few times.

  • Peaks out from under covers… is it safe to come out now?
  • I’m going to go out on a limb and say – it’s ok to use a little common sense now and again. Are you old, have known comorbidities, immune or pulmonary compromise? Taking care of a family member in that situation? Then I’d take this very serious and isolate yourself. Don’t feel well or have a cough? Wear a mask and be respectful of distancing. Be mindful of washing your hands or using hand sanitizer more frequently. Otherwise – it’s time to rejoin society. Go out get some sun, eat out at a restaurant, and interact with your fellow human beings. We cratered our economy. It needs to get going ASAP or we’re facing a dark future. We just printed $7 trillion dollars out of thin air. That’s not sustainable.
  • I have now used the 3-2-1 method of smoking my babyback ribs twice. They come out fabulous. I won’t be going back to my old method.
  • The government experts suffer massively from institutional inbreeding (TM Pat Mac). They appear completely unable to think out of the box and react to new or changing information.
  • That permit we were waiting for? Not only got it, but got the preferred date we wanted. We’ll be climbing Mt Whitney via the main trail mid-August. I’ve done it previously, but a few people in the group haven’t. This is a consolation prize for our failing to summit via the mountaineers route a few years ago. We turned around 300 yards from the summit.
  • My hospital issues one paper surgical mask that I have to wear for 12+ hours and make last three shifts. I don’t know where all these millions of masks are going you hear about on TV, but they’re clearly not filtering down to the healthcare workers in my state. I have sores on the top of my ears from wearing the damn mask for so long.
  • Interesting cross training observation. I did almost exclusively skate skiing all winter. No running or mountain biking since last fall. Starting running again now that it’s spring and it felt like I was starting all over. Sore muscles and gasping like a three pack a day smoker. With mountain biking it felt no different than last fall. No change to climbing or endurance.
  • I have not tried to get the COVID serologic test. I probably should. The last time I posted to this blog I’d gotten sick after Mrs Troutdog traveled to Vegas. Felt crummy for a handful of days and spiked a mild fever for a few days. This was early Feb. I think it’s a 50/50 that it was the China virus.
  • The toilet paper hoarding is further example that humans are easily frightened herd animals that will do unexpected and dangerous things when spooked. The hand sanitizer and disinfectant hoarding I get. But TP? Seriously people? I hope it’s a wake up call that you need a reasonable food and water supply, sanitation items, guns and ammo, a good first aid kit, and apparently now toilet paper. Dr Fauci and Govs’ Newsom, Whitmer, and Coumo aren’t coming to save you when SHTF. Oh, and bourbon. Plenty of bourbon.

Song of the day: “Won’t get fooled again” The Who