Tag: unrest

Confirmation bias, Government, Politics

Which Tribe Are You?

Quite a while ago I wrote a little missive on tribes. I remembered it this morning as I watched all the left-leaning talking heads desperately try to spin the latest videos of Captain Applesauce (our commander in chief) as nothing more than deceptive editing and fake news. The problem is that there’s a new video (or two) virtually every day. The leader of the free world has to be led around so he doesn’t get lost or wander off. His hands are often in some weird frozen state. He experiences frequent “statue” moments where he’s gazing off into space with a slack jawed vacant look on his face. He frequently falls asleep. He spouts unintelligible sentences and has random angry outbursts. It’s actually sad to see. The man has Parkinsons and onset dementia. It’s clear and obvious to everyone who chooses to be honest about what they’re seeing. This is what fascinates me – the liberal media as a whole chooses not to broadcast those images or discuss them. They’ll go out of their way to attack anyone who accuses the president of not being of sound mind. Why?

Remember when Trump was president and he walked gingerly down a ramp after giving a speech at West Point? There was an avalanche of press reports “raising new health concerns” at the time. Clearly the press can question the president’s health when they choose to. It’s not any surprise that the media is left-leaning. That’s the tribe they identify with. Politics are possibly the most tribal part of the human condition, even more so than sports. The confirmation bias that happens within political tribes is a spectacular thing to see.

Watching the left twist themselves into pretzels trying to ignore Biden’s health issues, inflation, or explain that the border really is shut down, is comical. But the right is just as bad. To the Trump crowd, the man walks on water. He made disastrous personnel choices, gave us Fauci and Birx, a vaccine that didn’t work, implemented nationwide lockdowns, didn’t build the wall, and added $8 trillion to the national debt. Mention any of those things and the MAGA crowd will shout you down like the Nancy Pelosi lover you must be. You don’t disparage the leader of the tribe.

So the question I have – is tribalism worse today? A number of people have floated the theory that the advent of social media, and especially X/Twitter, has fostered an environment of toxic tribalism that is the worst we’ve ever seen. We’re all so busy electronically shouting at each other, have we created a chasm so large that it can’t be crossed? Could the country come together and share some common ground if we had the right leadership? Or are we headed towards a civil war?

I’m not sure. Certainly X/Twitter has made it easier than ever to fling poo at the other side like a deranged howler monkey. And the advent of podcasts and alternative news/media options has made it easier for tribes to retreat to the information sources that feed their particular narrative. But does that mean we feel more allegiance to whatever tribe we belong to than people did in the past? I’m not sure about that. I suspect that you would have had a pretty hard time convincing an auto worker in the 70’s to listen to anything a Republican had to say and visa versa.

I’d like to think my conclusion from the piece I wrote years ago still holds true. Tribalism is magnified by economics. A middle class that is prosperous and expanding is less interested in tribes. You’ll be a lot more open to other ideas when your refrigerator is full, you can afford a home, jobs are plentiful, and you can take a vacation from time to time. Take those things away and people tend to withdraw to their tribe and get territorial.

I’m not sure I believe that any more. Economically the country was in demonstrably better shape during the previous administration (pre-pandemic). Everyone was benefiting. Yet the Trump derangement syndrome never dissipated for the left after the election. They hate that man with a white hot fury. The left spent his entire presidency doing everything in their power to destroy him, despite the country prospering. That’s a level of tribalism we haven’t seen before and it certainly hasn’t gone away. The idea that the bad orange man is the candidate again, and appears to be on a path to win, is making the left insane.

Sadly, I think we’re at a level of tribalism that’s dangerous. I suspect the left will do anything to prevent Trump from taking office again. And should he win… whoo boy, that’s going to make them big mad. The riots and protests we saw last go around will be nothing compared to what’s coming.

I’ve come to the conclusion that we’re asking the wrong question. It’s not, is tribalism worse. It’s who stands to benefit from increased tribalism? Of course, it’s our old friend the Deep State. The Enterprise. The Military Industrial Complex. Whatever you want to call it, I suspect years from now history will show that the intelligence agencies have had a hand in fomenting unrest here in the US. Creating a toxic environment in which neither party can be effective. Why? To maintain the status quo. To keep the spending going. To keep the forever wars going. As long as we’re busy bickering amongst ourselves, there’s little room to affect any meaningful change in Washington.

The CIA and DIA have been fomenting revolutions and civil unrest in country after country from their inception. The FBI has been actively interfering in US politics for years. The intelligence agencies have had their hands all over the levers of US news censorship in the past and massively in the present day. You’d be foolish to not think they’d be trying to influence the direction of this country for their own self-interests (which is a scary topic all on its own).

So what can be done about it? I’m not sure we can do anything. The cynical side of me says that it’s too late. I fear that the spending and warmongering monster that is Washington has grown too powerful to limit, regardless of who we elect.

But if there is a chance, that inflection point is this election. If the evil orange man gets elected, AND he picks a powerful VP who can succeed him… maybe we can slow down the deep state. I’m not optimistic. There’s about a thousand things that can still derail Trump at this point, elected or not.

I keep repeating myself, I know… but I need to say it again. Regardless of the outcome of this election there’s going to be some spicy chaos going on. Neither side will be happy and they’re going to find someone to take it out on. I’m happy I live in a mountainous enclave that’s far away from big cities. If you’re unlucky enough to live in one of those big cities – now’s the time to prepare for the unrest that coming.

Government, Politics

Shoot At The King

As the old saying goes – if you take a shot at the king, you better not miss. Trump took his shot at the deep state and the DNC and missed badly. He thought his name, self-declared fame, and his money would protect him. He was wrong. Trump is done. This is not some MAGA rally where he can throw out pithy statements to thousands of fawning fans. There is a very real possibility he sees prison time. At the very least he’s tied up in very expensive legal quicksand for the next decade.

For all the Trump fanboys who disagree… where’s the judge who’s going to dismiss the indictments? Where’s the RNC who’s going to go to the mattresses to fight this? Trump has burned every bridge possible. What politician or businessman is going to commit their future to the Trump train at this point?

No, the sad reality is that Trump will spend whatever remains of his campaign time fundraising and then siphoning off most of that to his legal defense (he’s already doing that if you haven’t been paying attention. He has the money to repaint his private jet but not for legal fees apparently). He’s too much of a narcissist to admit he can’t win. He’d rather torpedo the rest of the party and play the martyr when Gov Newsom takes the oath of office.

Normally this would be a who cares moment. A politician overplayed his hand and is regulated to the ash heap of history. Happens all the time. But this feels different. This feels dangerous.

The near unchecked power of the deep state and the DNC is frightening. The RNC continues to demonstrate we have a Defacto uni-party. Oh sure, there’s a few republicans that write sternly worded letters but that’s simply throwing spitballs at the castle walls. Currently the power of the federal government is unchecked and is being wielded to fundamentally alter this country.

When this election is over, there will be millions of very angry voters. A MAGA crowd that will feel disenfranchised and betrayed by their country. And that anger is going to be stoked by quite a few people looking to use that anger to their advantage. Odds are that most of that anger will be shouted into the Twitter (sorry, X) void. But… if the right personality comes along… someone with charisma and persuasion ability… someone who can organize and channel that anger into action – bad things could happen.

And President Newsom has already demonstrated as governor that he does not tolerate dissent. Lockdowns and curbing of rights in the name of safety are a given. And that my friends, is a recipe for a real coup. Not a silly J6 coup, but actual violent attempts to overthrow the government. Who knows what happens at that point?

Maybe I’m wrong. Perhaps the angry right is all bark and no bite. Generally speaking, Americans have been turned into herd animals. All we want to do is chew our cud and watch TV. Odds are that we wake up a decade from now and wonder where our country went.

We’ll have given up our freedom and national identity for the promise of safety from mean words, climate change, and science deniers.

Maybe. Who knows? The future is hard to predict. Besides, there’s that minor little WWIII thing developing that could alter everything. Regardless, the next few years are going to be an interesting soap opera to watch.

Daily Life, Government, Politics

It’s All About Equilibrium

equilibrium noun a state of rest or balance due to the equal action of opposing forces.

Our world will do everything in its power to achieve equilibrium. Fluids, gases, nature, economics, politics, relationships – everything needs balance. Fluids move in and out of cells due to unequal pressures. Remove all the predators from a habitat and the deer population will explode. Our financial markets can’t survive extreme highs or lows indefinitely. Humans don’t thrive without a healthy work/life balance. The world constantly strives to be at a steady state. It’s one of the immutable laws of nature.

The 1950’s ushered in an unbelievable level of prosperity in the United States. That prosperity trickled out to the rest of the world and raised the economic prospects of most nations. The political world, broadly speaking, does everything possible to maintain that prosperity and balance. How it does that is the subject of untold numbers of history books. The Deep State, The Enterprise, The Cabal – whether you think there’s a coordinated group that controls the levers of power or just simply individuals hungry for power and money, the end result is the same. The desire to enforce US hegemony has resulted in a hundred years of the United States pulling the strings and levers of the world.

We’ve initiated coups, fostered wars, manipulated the media, tweaked monetary policy, and controlled industry. All of that is neither good nor bad. It is what it is. It’s a system trying to maintain what it considers as equilibrium. It’s the nature of the world – if we weren’t in control, someone else would be. You and I have been massive beneficiaries of that system. You may not like how the sausage is made, but most people don’t complain about how good it tastes (sorry vegans). There’s a reason a million people a year are streaming illegally across our borders.

So, here’s what’s interesting. Despite the States never ending efforts to prevent you from seeing the sausage making process and maintain what it considers the status quo… we have just enough freedom to question things without fear of the Stasi showing up in the middle of the night and disappearing you (mostly). Recently, the fourth generation of the internet, coupled with Moores law, has enabled the population to share pesky, unpopular, information outside of the mainstream press at a level and speed never before imagined.

We’ve seen it in fits and starts. Alternative, fringe, conspiracy blogs. The Drudge Report (early days). Alex Jones. But now… now we’re seeing non-traditional views carve out a sizable chunk of the mainstream information landscape. I’d argue Joe Rogan was the pioneer. A source of information and views from every side of the spectrum. Uncensored and fed to a massive audience. It’s fair to say he spawned the podcast revolution. More recently, Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter further changed the information landscape. A sudden, shocking dismantling of what was a government influenced censorship tool, to something that has quickly evolved into what looks like a true public square of discourse.

You may not like the discourse – but it’s hard to argue against it being much closer to multiple sides freely shouting whatever they think is the truth (or whatever version of the truth they want to push). I want you to be able to scream whatever cockamamie theory you have at the top of your lungs. What I don’t want is a Ministry of Truth deciding what truth I get to hear.

And now we have the climactic moment of this film. A recent grand trifecta of events. First up is Tucker Carlson. Fox fires him. He quickly starts a new “show” on Twitter. Now you may not like him or anything he says. But his first episode has 110 million views. His just released second episode is at 30+ million views in the first nine hours. Fox News, the highest rated cable show for years, rarely hit more than 2.8 million views for any show. That’s a staggering difference in reach.

Next the FBI just released, under threat of a congressional contempt order, info about allegations that indicate President Biden took a 5-million-dollar bribe from Ukraine. Prior to the new Twitter, that would have been memory holed out of existence instantly (see Hunter Biden laptop). And finally, cough, cough, coincidentally on the same day as that FBI release, former president Trump and the current leading presidential candidate, was indicted for the same thing Hillary and Biden did (possessing classified documents). Hmmm nobody’s above the law, right? The avalanche of online outrage right now is at a level I haven’t seen before.

So what’s my point? I don’t care if you do or don’t agree with Tucker, Trump, DNC, RNC, Elon Musk, the FBI, or the DOJ. Up until this point the State has been able to exert enormous pressure to control the narrative. That dam has been breached. Tucker’s new platform signals the official end of the mainstream media as the primary information source for millions upon millions of people. Tucker and/or his new platform may or may not survive, but it’s a clear sign we no longer have to rely exclusively upon the various news talking heads to feed us the official party line.

The State, and the mainstream media, have pushed the scale of information control so far out of whack, something is going to happen. A very large portion of the population are angry. They’re tired of a narrative being forced upon them. They’re tired of being lied to. I think we’re about to see an absolute flood of information reach the population that is different than what they’ve been told. An angry populace is craving to hear something closer to the truth. You are about to see the field of “non-traditional” journalists explode. Thousands of people jockeying to leak the latest bit of government overreach and corporate manipulation without fear of censorship.

Truth, rumor, scandal, targeted misinformation – all of it is going to be sucked up by millions of people craving something closer to the truth like a dry sponge in a glass of water.

An angry, unsettled population is a dangerous population. The more details about how the sausage is made are made public, the more there will be shouting for accountability and lashing out in frustration. And the more unsettled the population becomes, the more likely it is for the State to crack down. The State will not give up its power and control without a fight. And that my friends, is a recipe for scary times. There might be one or two historical precedents for such scenarios if you wanted to look.

Part of me craves the idyllic 80’s and 90’s of my youth. Oh, the same crap went on behind the scenes… we were just mostly oblivious to it. If Ted Koppel or Dan Rather didn’t say it, it didn’t happen. But now – as the famous saying goes, do you want the blue pill and wake up happy in your bed, or do you want the red pill and see how deep the rabbit hole goes?

Nature craves equilibrium. People are slowly waking up to how unfairly the game is rigged. A whole lot of folks are about to take the red pill for the first time. For good or bad, the scale will eventually find a way to swing the other way.

Let’s just hope we don’t overcorrect.

Daily Life, Health

A Keto Failure
  • If you’ve been following along at home, several weeks ago I began the great reset. Calorie control, daily workouts, and going back to keto. So far it’s been going great. Down about seven pounds and solidly back in ketosis. And then I ran into a brick wall. Otherwise known as “regular life”. A few days ago we went out to dinner with some friends to a Puerto Rican restaurant. Great food. I did fine with calorie restriction… but a few deep fried plantains and some other taro root appetizer thingy snuck in, knocking me out of ketosis by the next morning. I did ok the next few days diet-wise and then we went to a hockey game last night. (the other day I went to a boxing match and a hockey game broke out. Bada boom. I’ll be here all night) I was smart with calories – I made and ate a huge pot of steamed broccoli before we went so I wouldn’t be tempted with food (you have no idea how much willpower it took to not dive into the pizza and wings). But everyone was having drinks (I haven’t had one for several weeks) and I caved. I had a vodka since it’s keto. And then I couldn’t resist having a beer. How do you not have a beer while watching hockey? Which brings me to my point. It’s so tough to “diet” and/or maintain keto and have a regular life. It’s so hard when everyone is ordering food and enjoying a few drinks and you’re that guy… not eating and drinking iced tea. Sigh. I desperately wish I could find the right balance that allows me to actually eat and maintain a healthy weight. Maybe I’ll just go crazy with the workouts. If I burn a 1,000 calories a day I can still eat nachos, right?

  • The events of Kenosha and the Rittenhouse shooting, and so many other events the last year, are a direct result of elected officials abdicating their responsibility. If you fail to enforce the law or offer basic policing services to your citizens, the outcome will be predictable. Like it or not, a much larger percentage of the population than you’d think are generally not good people – for a whole host of reasons. Given the opportunity they will lie, cheat, steal, and use violence and force to prey upon the weak. Those folks have always been a part of the human condition and always will. If you don’t keep them in check, they will take advantage in a heartbeat. America historically has, for the most part, managed the balance between police authoritarian/overreach and anarchy pretty well. Until now. The woke, progressive, lawyers, and cancel culture have cowed elected officials into being afraid to do their jobs. The end result is predictable. And the longer it goes on the harder it will be to wrest control back from the mob. I fear it may already be too late.

  • Directly related to the last point, I highly encourage you to read this post. I’m not going to try and restate it because I’m not articulate enough. I’m 75-80% 90% in agreement with it. The part I’m curious about… is there some George Soros type person or big tech cabal orchestrating this, or is it an organic thing fueled by people like AOC and Ilhan Omar who in pushing their day to day issues are inadvertently driving us closer to the outcomes stated in the post? Regardless, history reminds us that chaos will create a power vacuum. You may not like who steps in to captain the ship.

  • Speaking of chaos, I’m most of the way through a great book on the history of Frederick Douglass and Abraham Lincoln. I hadn’t read much about the civil war, so there’s lots of details that I never knew. It’s hard to imagine what Lincoln faced as he took office. The south almost immediately seceded directly in response to his being elected. A number of the battles in that war had casualties of 20,000 – in a single day. That’s unfathomable. We just recently had 13 servicemembers killed in the bungled Afghanistan withdraw and we went apoplectic. Can you imagine thousands in a single day? The pressures Lincoln faced were truly remarkable. It’s a good to be reminded of how close this country came to not surviving.

  • We’ve had a bear circling our neighborhood for several years now. During the summer you’d have the occasional sighting, and then more frequently as we get closer to winter. The last month or so he’s been a pretty frequent visitor. We caught him on the security camera the other night going after our garbage can. He flipped it over a few times, pressed down on the side, and pop… it opened up like a ripe banana. So much for the “bearproof can”. The can is now in the garage. I’ve seen him on the camera several more times looking for it in the middle of the night. I’m worried for him. He’s clearly become accustomed to foraging for garbage in neighborhoods. Bears like that tend not to have a good outcome. Relocating them doesn’t tend to work. Time to hibernate Mr bear, before Fish and Game come looking for you!

  • We’re about to join the hordes of people off traveling to grandma’s house for Thanksgiving. Please give a quick prayer for my waistline. And folks, as Sergeant Phil Esterhaus in Hill Street Blues said at the end of every roll call… “Let’s be careful out there“. Whew, that’s dating myself.

Song of the day: The Ting Tings – Shut Up and Let Me Go