Tag: prepare

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.

Daily Life, Government, woke

I Think It’s Over

Yesterday was a good day. The temperature approached 70 degrees. We got a bunch of yard work done. Multiple trips to the dump. I took a nap. We went out to dinner and watched the sunset over the lake. Just before bed, I rescued my garbage can from a marauding bear. We’re very blessed to live where we do and to be as fortunate as we are. It’s easy in my little corner of the world to feel like everything is hunky dory.

Meanwhile, there’s a literal invasion crossing our southern border. 10,000 people a day from countries across the globe. Folks who have limited job skills, can’t speak the language, no money, and carry scabies, lice, and TB. And our government facilitates it. We bus them to cities across the country. We give them cell phones. They receive court dates 4-5 years in the future. The majority of the migrants are single, fighting-age males. Your government is doing everything possible to hide this.

They are not leaving. No politician has the political will to take any meaningful action. We have conceded the southern border to the cartels. The cartels have clearly taken over the southern border states. They are now the primary gang in most major cities. Given our nationwide push to defund police and elect liberal district attorneys… how long do you think it will be before major parts the US look like cartel-run Mexico?

Mobs of violent criminals operate with impunity in major cities. They loot and steal without fear. Major brand name stores are pulling out of big cities at a record pace due to crime. If you’re stupid enough to try and defend yourself or others, you will lose everything. You will be prosecuted and vilified by the media. Antifa operates at will in most big cities and are never targeted by police or the FBI. Yet if you protest drag queens targeting children, you’ll be guaranteed to have federal agents busting down your door. Hate crime!

Our current national debt is $31.7 trillion. Our debt service alone is equal to our defense budget. The republicans have passed a bill raising another $1.5 trillion in borrowing, and the democrats immediately accused them of trying to starve grandma. These are not serious people. Debt, inflation, war, and a banking crisis don’t bode well for a long-term stable economy.

The average person in this country probably rarely hears any of this. CNN won’t cover it. They’re too busy trying to generate new Trump outrage for ratings.

So, what happens next? It’s the decline of the Roman Empire, 2.0. In my opinion, we’ve crossed the tipping point. There is no going back. It’s been a slow decline, but now it’s beginning to accelerate. I don’t think the collapse happens in my lifetime… but I also didn’t think society would crumble as fast as it has.

I fear two scenarios. The first is large portions of the country finally deciding they’ve had enough. Vigilante mobs form. Private “security” groups organize to patrol and protect neighborhoods. Violent encounters ensue with criminals and clashes with government forces trying to stop citizens taking matters into their own hands. The wild-wild west on steroids. The cartels will thrive in this environment.

The second scenario is the rise of a hugely influential politician. One who pushes an extreme nationalism as an excuse to massively expand the security and military industrial complex. Someone capable of convincing the masses to give up just a little bit of freedom in exchange for security. As a nation of sheep, we would happily follow a charismatic leader down a dark road. A real-life handmaiden’s tale.

In the face of my Sunday morning dystopian view, what can we do? Not much. Long-term, I think it’s going to happen no matter what. Do everything possible to get yourself out of bigger cities and go to a small town and put down roots. Be ready for food insecurity. Read and watch news sources other than mainstream media. Be a contrarian and reject the status quo. Learn to be realistic about what’s looming around the corner and realize that nobody’s coming to save you.

But then again, maybe the future will be amazing! Flying electric cars and helpful home assistant robots in every home. A borderless society with people living in peace, love, and harmony. A gluten-free and tofu driven nirvana.

Maybe. Meanwhile, enjoy life. Go do something fun today. Tomorrow is not a guarantee.

Daily Life, Motivation, Travel

What’s Your Risk Tolerance?
  • I just got back from a four day road trip on the ginormous motorcycle. It was a fantastic trip with a couple of “bucket list” rides. I mentioned in my last post that I almost cancelled due to a threat of inclement weather. Sure enough, day one I got caught in a pretty severe rain and hailstorm. Let’s just say that large hail at 60 mph on a motorcycle hurts! The important part is that I survived and it wasn’t nearly as scary as I’d built it up to be in my head. I rode a few other sections that were high speed highway (70 and 80 mph speed limits) with plenty of large semi’s and some high winds. Serious white knuckle time in the beginning, but I wasn’t thinking about it much towards the end of the day. The point is that the unknown is scary and it’s easy to let that fear get the better of you when try to visualize what it’s going to be like. I guarantee that most of the time reality will prove to be nothing like the horrible scenarios you let run away in your imagination.
  • Which leads me to my question on risk tolerance. Pushing through fear is all well and good, but you still need to do a reasonable risk assessment of the situation. A brand new motorcycle rider attempting a busy freeway on his first day is stupid. The lack of skill makes the risk factor way too high. So how do you evaluate risk? When it comes to hiking, backpacking, mountain biking, I have a reasonable amount of life experience. I’m an RN, was a member of a search and rescue team for years, comfortable with navigation, and feel pretty comfortable with knowing my physical limits. My risk tolerance for hiking in the backcountry is pretty high. Barring serious injury, I’m not terribly worried about surviving a few days if something went wrong. I’m reasonably confident I could put myself in a position to be found or self-rescue. More importantly, I feel like I’m less likely to put myself in a bad position in the first place. Most of our rescues on the SAR team were for people who had no idea they were even putting themselves at risk until it was too late.
  • Which brings me back to the ginormous motorcycle. I have many years of riding experience. Unfortunately most of it was simply commuting back and forth to work. The long road trips are new to me, but I feel like I still have enough overall street experience in those scenarios to make good risk assessments. But what I really want to do is spend more time riding in the backcountry. I have no dirt experience. At what point, when riding by myself, am I being stupid? Most of my fears revolve around being stranded. A crash or other mechanical issue that disables the bike. Dropping the bike and not being able to pick it up. A navigation error and running out of fuel or getting into a scenario I’m not capable of riding. Now what? With the motorcycle it’s easy to go distances beyond a simple hike out.
  • So, do I not go out by myself? Do I simply start slowly and go a little further each time? Do I spend days beforehand making a battle plan with every possible scenario for each ride? At some point that’s no longer fun. On one hand, what’s the worst that could happen? Again, assuming no serious injury, the bike breaks down and I’m stuck. A few days of hiking or until someone finds me. While it would suck, very survivable. It’s extremely rare that someone goes missing and perishes before being found. But that’s not a fair burden to put on loved ones waiting at home, thinking the worst.
  • At what point are you being so cautious you’re limiting activities due to fear of the unknown? At what point are you placing yourself needlessly at risk because you failed to adequately prepare and didn’t recognize that you were in over your head? For me I think the answer will be to go slow and over-prepare initially. Of course I’ll seek out more experienced riding partners… but I don’t want to sit at home waiting for that to happen. The other option is to sign up for one of the various riding schools and learn/improve my dirt skills. I suppose I should do that regardless. How do you evaluate risk? Pro’s/con’s on a spreadsheet? Avoid it at all costs? Just do it and whatever happens, happens? I’m honestly curious how others evaluate risk?

Song of the day: Lily Allen | The Fear

Cool, Daily Life, Government, Motivation

I Might Be Lost
  • Many moons ago in a former life I was a member of a search and rescue team. I had training in many subjects; rope/technical rescue, swiftwater rescue, tracking, land and open water navigation, incident command, etc… Trust me, it sounds way cooler than reality. Nowadays I’d get lost driving to the doughnut shop without my phone navigation. Anyway, two things happened yesterday that drove home the importance of embracing the old boy scout motto – Be Prepared. The first was a quick snowshoe outing. Well, I thought it was going to be quick. It was to a place I’d never been and we have multiple feet of brand new snow. I brought nothing. No water, no gear, no first aid kit. We didn’t let anyone know where we were going. We wandered through the woods for several hours and by the time we got back to the car it was snowing pretty good. I know better and should have been at least minimally prepared. In my head I justified it with thinking it was a pretty highly visited area and our distance wasn’t very far. I didn’t think much more about it until late in the evening. Some folks we know in another part of the state managed to get lost and caught out after dark in the wilderness. Temps were dropping into the teens and snow was expected. We were on the phone on and off for hours as family tried to coordinate search and rescue efforts from afar. I fully expected to be heading north on a multi hour drive to start searching come first light. Details are still sketchy, but they were located and everyone seems to be ok. What’s the point of all this? We all get complacent. We put off planning and preparing. I’ll do it tomorrow. The problem with emergencies is that they happen when you least expect it. Do you have an emergency kit in your car? In your home? (Texas residents certainly never expected to be in their predicament) I’m not saying you need to go full on prepper mode, but could you and your family last three days if something happened? A week? If you’re heading out for some outdoor fun, does someone know where you’re going and when to worry if they don’t hear from you? I think society today has become conditioned to feel safe. Someone in authority will always be there to bail you out. I can always call and someone will come rescue me. Fortunately in this country that is true more often than not. I think the winning attitude is to assume that isn’t true and prepare accordingly. I know this was a wakeup call for me to stop being lazy and get my shit together. We have a local apparel company here that’s run by an ex SEAL called 30SEC Out. They have a sticker I really like that says “Expect to self rescue. No one is coming”. I think it’s a great motto for life in general. I may have to buy a few just remind myself.
  • According to VP Harris, they’re starting from scratch with their Covid response because there was no existing plan. Curious since the U.S. has carried out more vaccinations than any country in the world, and given a first dose to a higher percentage of its population (12%) than all but five small countries. Covid cases have plummeted by 77% in the US. There’s talk we’ll reach herd immunity by April. Which is also interesting because when the previous administration was in power, to mention herd immunity meant you were a science denier. Ain’t politics grand!
  • I bought a drone. Well, technically I’m on on the waiting list with an option to buy a drone when it’s available. I’m not exactly sure what I’m going to do with it yet. It’s capable of some truly amazing footage. I suspect I’m telling myself that the only thing keeping my little YouTube channel with 12 subscribers from going big time is not having a drone. Well, that and not actually making very many videos. I’ve got the adventure bike, the gear, the plans, the time, and soon the drone. I guess there are no more excuses. Bummer. Now I’m going to have to actually execute on all my grand plans for adventure content. As they say, talk is cheap. Planning is easy. It’s the doing that’s hard.
  • Is it just me, or does the new press secretary always seem unprepared? She had absolutely no answer when asked “Biden suspended a Trump Administration executive order that was aimed at keeping foreign countries, specifically China, from interfering in the U.S. Power grid… why did he do that?” As press sec, I would think you’d have an answer ready for any executive order your president signed. Especially one potentially related to a natural disaster that’s currently happening.
  • I don’t know what happened here, but yeet is right! Watch this seven second vid. And with that, I’m off to do my last full-time shifts. As my coworkers tell me, I’m moving to the princess shifts. I’ve been working since I was fourteen. It will be very strange to not be full-time. Exciting, worried I’ll be wasting my time, nervous about not being productive, looking forward to a new chapter, and a little apprehensive about the unknown. Time to face all those fears head-on!

Song of the day: Smash Mouth – All Star