Tag: Nuclear

Government, Politics

What Comes Next?

I’ll admit, I’m a little worried at the current state of world affairs. My unease was made worse by a book I just finished. It’s called “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by investigative reporter Annie Jacobsen. I highly recommend it. It describes step by step exactly what happens in a nuclear exchange, from how the nuclear football works, to what the blast damage looks like. The TLDR is… your best bet is to be at ground zero and have it all over instantly. Anything else is just prolonged suffering. Nobody wins.

My bigger takeaway from the book is how fragile the entire system is. It’s truly frightening how little of a misjudgment it would take to kick the whole thing off. If we (or Russia or China) detect what we think is a nuclear warhead being launched, the president has six minutes to decide what to do. SIX MINUTES. And when you look at the shuffling dementia patient who currently holds the keys… I’m not filled with confidence at the decision making ability.

Now fast forward to today. Iran launched a massive strike against Israel. Fortunately all except seven of the missiles and drones were shot down. But now we face the million dollar question – now what?

Was this just stupid chest thumping by Iran so they can reclaim their manhood after their general was liquified by an Israeli missile in retaliation for Oct 7? It sort of looks like that since what they launched was old, slow, and we’ve known it was coming for a week now. If that was the case, shouldn’t both sides simply retreat back to their corners and maintain the status quo? Is it worth kicking off a full scale regional war that has the potential of escalating to something much worse?

But what if it was something else? What if it was a probe to judge the response? The US/UK/Israel basically just showed Iran (and anyone else watching) exactly what our response times are, how we respond, where each defensive launch point is, and how effective the anti-missile defense is. How many more iron dome and arrow missiles do we and Israel have remaining? Seems like a worthwhile exercise to go through if you don’t fear any real retaliation.

Let’s be real. The goal is to drive the Jews into the sea. Always has been, always will. The players may change, but the desire to eradicate Israel never ends. There is no amount of appeasement that is going to fix this. October 7th was a stark reminder. The moment Israel lets its guard down, even for a moment, the invading hoards will swarm intent on massacre. You know it, and I know it. If Iran thinks it can get away with an even bigger strike with minimal consequences, they’ll do it and you know it to be true. So what do we do?

My gut says it’s time to have a joint US/UK/Israel strike against Iran to completely devastate their infrastructure and economy. Ensure their nuclear weapon development programs are destroyed. Make sure they have zero economic power. It’s not like they’re going to hate us any more than they already do. While we’re at it, let’s wrest control back of the Red Sea shipping lanes. Oh, and how about we put some pressure on our “allies” like Qatar to stop harboring Hamas leadership? Help Israel finish cleaning out Hamas and start building bigger and better walls around Gaza and the West Bank. While we’re at it, southern Lebanon and Hezbollah should probably get a taste of real retribution. No more firing rockets into civilian homes with impunity.

Sometimes, a good ass kicking is the only way to stop a bully.

All fine and dandy, except… I’m not sure we can put that genie back in the bottle once it’s out. And color me skeptical, but I have zero faith in our “leaders” to make good decisions. Would Russia step in? Would China take this opportunity to take Taiwan? Do we really want to be mired in another forever war in the Middle East? What a mess.

It’s clear that our “experts”, both past and present, pretty much don’t know doodly-squat. Their ability to predict outcomes and consequences leave much to be desired. Like I said in the beginning, it wouldn’t take much for things to go horribly wrong. After all, WWI was started after some archduke was assassinated. The wrong missile flys over the wrong airspace and… boom. The end.

It’s a sobering thought. It’s a very scary time. Do we encourage everyone to step back, or do we go thump some heads before things get worse? Glad I’m not making the decisions. I just wish I had more faith in those who are.

Elections have consequences.

Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

Lesser Of Two Evils

I get it. Everyone thinks Russia is evil. Putin is a monster that launched a war that has resulted in massive loss of life. I think the reasons he did it are complicated and will be debated for years, but implementing a blitzkrieg march straight through to the Netherlands is not one of the reasons. You’re quite naïve if you think that was the ultimate goal. You can debate all you want about good vs. evil, ulterior motives, blah, blah, blah… What’s important is – here we are. Now what?

How does this play out? The war hawks claim we’ll support Ukraine to the end. So what does that look like? Russia is not going to suddenly say sorry and pull back to pre-war borders. Therefore, the only way to force Russia back East is to inflict the complete and total annihilation of the Russian military.

Given that, I have an honest question:

Can anyone give a plausible scenario in which that happens? I’m honestly interested in hearing from someone who believes that’s possible.

Ukrainian losses are in the ~300,000 range, with another 100,000 or so wounded. Kill ratios are 8-15:1 depending on the region. Russia has decimated Ukrainian equipment and artillery. Ukraine has run out of fighting age males. They are snatching people off the streets and conscripting them into the military. They’re now taking women and old men. They’re threatening anyone who fled the country with arrest and forfeiture of their passport/citizenship if they don’t come back to fight.

Russia currently has about 750,000 men in theater, with plans to ramp up to 1.2 million. They have complete air superiority. They have very sophisticated aerial/drone and artillery targeting capability. They’ve ramped up their wartime production of shells, missiles, and ammo to the point they can fire many hundreds per day without fear of running out. They’ve built three rings of massive concrete defensive positions. There are hundreds of thousands of mines to cross before you even get to their defensive lines.

Please tell me how Ukraine defeats that?

The answer is they can’t. It would take the entirety of the US military plus NATO forces to attempt to defeat them. That would be literal world war three. The problem with that scenario is that Russia will not go quietly. I guarantee they’ll use tactical nuclear strikes along the western border of Ukraine before they allow NATO forces to advance further towards Russia. And we can all guess where that would lead.

So now what? Please, someone give me a scenario in which this plays out different if we keep going down our current path.

At this point it doesn’t matter any more if you think what Russia did was right or wrong. It has to stop, and soon. The longer this goes the closer we get to the nightmare scenario. I see our administration and virtually the entire congress gleefully speeding down this path with zero plausible ideas on how it ends.

I don’t know how we convince our leaders that what they’re doing is madness. They don’t listen to the citizenry and the press is in lockstep with these fools. How do we stop this?

I get it. Russia bad, Ukraine good. I don’t like what happened any more than the next guy, but I’m starting to think that if you have any interest in visiting Europe you may want to do it soon. It may be a smoldering crater before too long.

Government, Politics

Selective Outrage

I apologize. I don’t check my email that often, so I must have missed the memo about Ukraine being one of our oldest and most trusted allies. I confess that a month or so ago I couldn’t have found Ukraine on the map. Suddenly it’s somehow now in our national interest to pour (more) billions of dollars into this country and potentially risk another world war in Europe. I’m sure they’re lovely people (aside from that pesky actual Nazi problem they have). And it’s absolutely heart wrenching to see the apparent indiscriminate bombing and killing of civilians. War is awful. Period. Full stop.

But guess what campers, this isn’t the only active war currently going on. Let’s pick one like, hmmm, the Congo. The current hostilities in the Democratic Republic of Congo have produced 4.5 million internally displaced persons, 800,000 refugees in other countries, and an estimated death toll of at least three million. Let me repeat that. THREE MILLION DEATHS. This is a country rich in natural resources, which we need. Our greatest real threat, China, is pulling out all stops to control those resources. And the United States does… [crickets chirping].

My point is that it’s odd what conflicts and crisis of the moment reach our attention span. Why is Ukraine any more or less important than the DRC? I don’t pretend to understand either conflict, and neither should you. I do not trust the narrative we’re being fed. Ukraine is a massively corrupt country full of coups, separatists factions, and a puppet regime installed by the United States. The US has been using Ukraine as a stick to keep poking Russia for years. Well… now you’ve woken up the bear. Maybe that’s what we wanted all along? I have no idea and I doubt you do either.

You should ask yourself some questions. Number one, why is paying for and solving this crisis a problem the US needs to manage? This is primarily a European issue. They’re the ones who are dependent on Russian energy supplies. The EU countries have massive GDP’s, economies, and have huge numbers of weapons, planes, and all types of fancy missiles and missile defense stuff. Our European allies need to be front and center in managing and paying for this crisis. If and when they need our help, we can be there. But the US does not need to be the worlds pocketbook and policeman. If you disagree, please explain why we need to take the lead in solving this?

Similar to the first question, why should the US taxpayers fund this war? You do realize we’re now thirty trillion dollars in debt, right? Our economy is poised to crater. There are literally no more checks in the checkbook. Every dollar we give to Ukraine and every weapon system we hand them, was first money we borrowed from China. WE DO NOT HAVE the 14 billion we just authorized to give to Ukraine. We have to borrow that money. Record setting inflation, gas prices, crumbling infrastructure, supply chain issues, and a 150,000 people a month streaming across our border. We have some issues. Please explain why spending billions to give to Ukraine is more important than any of those things? The best that I can tell, the EU has promised a whopping $450 million. Individually, EU countries are giving a smattering of weapons and other goods. If this was such a momentous issue on European soil, wouldn’t you think they’d have a bit more skin in the game? But why should they when they know we’ll pay for it.

As a side note, we give billions to the UN every year. Where are they? What actual purpose do they serve other than to write sternly worded letters? Perhaps we should divert our UN payments to Ukraine.

There are no good answers to any of this. This morning, Ukraine’s president Zelensky gave an impassioned speech to our congress. He invoked the memories of Pearl Harbor and 9/11. He received a standing ovation. I suspect out of fear of appearing to do nothing, our brave representatives will pour more money and aid to Ukraine, further provoking the conflict and increasing the potential of escalation. Do you really think Putin is going to say, “whoops, my bad. I’ll pull out.”? By further arming Ukraine, we’re forcing Putin to take more extreme measures. I fear we’re one mistake or misunderstanding away from another world conflict. Is that really what you want?

Look, I realize I’m sounding all Neville Chamberlain-ish this morning. But the US is not the superpower we once were. We’re broke, and that’s hard to admit. It’s time for US to step aside and let others shoulder the burden for a while. We shouldn’t let social media shame us into something that could rapidly get far worse than we can possibly imagine.

It’s hard to see human suffering. But I doubt any of you have been outraged at the war in the DRC. Why? Admit it, you couldn’t have found Ukraine on a map a month ago. Me either. And you certainly weren’t outraged at (or even know about) the 14,000 killed and 1.5 million people displaced in the Donbass region of Ukraine in 2014. There’s a lot of human suffering going on in the world at any given time and it’s awful to see. But just because CNN is breathlessly promoting this conflict 24×7 doesn’t mean we have to spring into action. It’s time for cooler heads to prevail and for us to sit this one out.

We have a massive economic war looming on the horizon with China. A war that will alter your standard of living. We may very well be wishing we had some of those billions we pissed away, trying to be the good guy, back.

Uncategorized

Don’t Make Me Tell You Again
  • Anyone else hear that as a kid growing up? I was never brave enough to find out what would happen if mom or dad had to say it again. Except one time in the car. I remember the “don’t make me pull this car over” as we were driving somewhere. I think my sister and I were horseplaying in the back seat. You know, the massive station wagon bench seat without seatbelts. Kids today have no idea. Anyway, whatever we were doing was the final straw and my dad stopped the car in the middle of the road. Tires screeching, horns honking, and drivers yelling at us. We were informed if we didn’t shape up right now, we were getting out right here and walking home. I believed him. This is what the mask mandate culture feels like. Nobody can really explain the science, just that masks are just supposed to magically work. Authorities are angerly stomping their feet and insisting we completely ignore common sense and just bend the knee. Meanwhile, back in the science and statistics department, this group did a data analysis of all fifty states and examined Covid case counts per day with and without mask mandates. During the days under mask mandates, states had 27 cases per 100k. Days without mask mandates? 17 cases per 100k. WTF? It’s almost like the mask mandates had no impact… or made things worse. How could this be? Again, there is a very good chance that a properly fitted mask, in the right circumstances, could lower viral load and thus reduce the severity of Covid if you catch it. This should be encouraged for people in high risk categories. That is NOT what we’re being told. Authorities are implying that masks will PREVENT Covid, which is utter nonsense. Think critically people.
  • This is a very well written article that looks at the idea of asymptomatic spread of Covid. Asymptomatic spread is the reason given for all the lockdowns. Well, that pesky science may be getting in the way and indicating that there isn’t asymptomatic spread. You’d think this would be great news. Maybe we should be looking into this further? We can end the lockdowns and try to rebuild our economy! Crickets. Science is supposed to be the ultimate contrarian intellectual activity. The very definition of science is that your peers should be trying to break your argument. It’s not until we’ve exhausted the attempts to disprove your hypothesis that something becomes accepted. We’ve moved into a frightening era in which to even question something today will get you labeled as a “denier”, in the same category as flat earthers.
  • I don’t know why anyone would be surprised, but reporters are getting frustrated that Biden and his team refuse to answer questions. He did not have a single open press conference during his “campaign”. Harris did not take a single question from the press. It’s starting to look like “A Weekend at Bernie’s”. Question is, who’s controlling things behind the scenes?
  • You know the world is upside down when Rachael Maddow is defending Tucker Carlson.
  • I’m a little cynical today, so bear with me. Let me get this straight. The (collective) government shuts down the economy. They killed hundred of thousands of small businesses. Politicians have twiddled their thumbs playing political games, all while happily collecting their paychecks. Finally they decide the optics are right and decided to print another trillion dollars we don’t have, to “help” those suffering the most from the problem they created in the first place. Congratulations! You get $600 dollars. See, we really care about you. Never mind that most of that trillion is going to programs other than direct payments to citizens. To give some perspective on how idiotic our federal spending priorities are, here’s a mind-blowing nugget from a nuclear power expert. “For $900 billion we could build enough AP1000 nuclear reactors to replace our entire power grid. Let that sink in. The average American would save thousands in electricity costs annually.” Why aren’t the green new deal people screaming about this? Where’s our new Climate Czar, Kerry?
  • Enough of the cynicism for the day, enjoy this guy talking to his dog. Yes, I totally talk to my dog this way.

Song of the day: VIOLENT FEMMES – Add it Up