Tag: Elections

Confirmation bias, Government, Politics

Which Tribe Are You?

Quite a while ago I wrote a little missive on tribes. I remembered it this morning as I watched all the left-leaning talking heads desperately try to spin the latest videos of Captain Applesauce (our commander in chief) as nothing more than deceptive editing and fake news. The problem is that there’s a new video (or two) virtually every day. The leader of the free world has to be led around so he doesn’t get lost or wander off. His hands are often in some weird frozen state. He experiences frequent “statue” moments where he’s gazing off into space with a slack jawed vacant look on his face. He frequently falls asleep. He spouts unintelligible sentences and has random angry outbursts. It’s actually sad to see. The man has Parkinsons and onset dementia. It’s clear and obvious to everyone who chooses to be honest about what they’re seeing. This is what fascinates me – the liberal media as a whole chooses not to broadcast those images or discuss them. They’ll go out of their way to attack anyone who accuses the president of not being of sound mind. Why?

Remember when Trump was president and he walked gingerly down a ramp after giving a speech at West Point? There was an avalanche of press reports “raising new health concerns” at the time. Clearly the press can question the president’s health when they choose to. It’s not any surprise that the media is left-leaning. That’s the tribe they identify with. Politics are possibly the most tribal part of the human condition, even more so than sports. The confirmation bias that happens within political tribes is a spectacular thing to see.

Watching the left twist themselves into pretzels trying to ignore Biden’s health issues, inflation, or explain that the border really is shut down, is comical. But the right is just as bad. To the Trump crowd, the man walks on water. He made disastrous personnel choices, gave us Fauci and Birx, a vaccine that didn’t work, implemented nationwide lockdowns, didn’t build the wall, and added $8 trillion to the national debt. Mention any of those things and the MAGA crowd will shout you down like the Nancy Pelosi lover you must be. You don’t disparage the leader of the tribe.

So the question I have – is tribalism worse today? A number of people have floated the theory that the advent of social media, and especially X/Twitter, has fostered an environment of toxic tribalism that is the worst we’ve ever seen. We’re all so busy electronically shouting at each other, have we created a chasm so large that it can’t be crossed? Could the country come together and share some common ground if we had the right leadership? Or are we headed towards a civil war?

I’m not sure. Certainly X/Twitter has made it easier than ever to fling poo at the other side like a deranged howler monkey. And the advent of podcasts and alternative news/media options has made it easier for tribes to retreat to the information sources that feed their particular narrative. But does that mean we feel more allegiance to whatever tribe we belong to than people did in the past? I’m not sure about that. I suspect that you would have had a pretty hard time convincing an auto worker in the 70’s to listen to anything a Republican had to say and visa versa.

I’d like to think my conclusion from the piece I wrote years ago still holds true. Tribalism is magnified by economics. A middle class that is prosperous and expanding is less interested in tribes. You’ll be a lot more open to other ideas when your refrigerator is full, you can afford a home, jobs are plentiful, and you can take a vacation from time to time. Take those things away and people tend to withdraw to their tribe and get territorial.

I’m not sure I believe that any more. Economically the country was in demonstrably better shape during the previous administration (pre-pandemic). Everyone was benefiting. Yet the Trump derangement syndrome never dissipated for the left after the election. They hate that man with a white hot fury. The left spent his entire presidency doing everything in their power to destroy him, despite the country prospering. That’s a level of tribalism we haven’t seen before and it certainly hasn’t gone away. The idea that the bad orange man is the candidate again, and appears to be on a path to win, is making the left insane.

Sadly, I think we’re at a level of tribalism that’s dangerous. I suspect the left will do anything to prevent Trump from taking office again. And should he win… whoo boy, that’s going to make them big mad. The riots and protests we saw last go around will be nothing compared to what’s coming.

I’ve come to the conclusion that we’re asking the wrong question. It’s not, is tribalism worse. It’s who stands to benefit from increased tribalism? Of course, it’s our old friend the Deep State. The Enterprise. The Military Industrial Complex. Whatever you want to call it, I suspect years from now history will show that the intelligence agencies have had a hand in fomenting unrest here in the US. Creating a toxic environment in which neither party can be effective. Why? To maintain the status quo. To keep the spending going. To keep the forever wars going. As long as we’re busy bickering amongst ourselves, there’s little room to affect any meaningful change in Washington.

The CIA and DIA have been fomenting revolutions and civil unrest in country after country from their inception. The FBI has been actively interfering in US politics for years. The intelligence agencies have had their hands all over the levers of US news censorship in the past and massively in the present day. You’d be foolish to not think they’d be trying to influence the direction of this country for their own self-interests (which is a scary topic all on its own).

So what can be done about it? I’m not sure we can do anything. The cynical side of me says that it’s too late. I fear that the spending and warmongering monster that is Washington has grown too powerful to limit, regardless of who we elect.

But if there is a chance, that inflection point is this election. If the evil orange man gets elected, AND he picks a powerful VP who can succeed him… maybe we can slow down the deep state. I’m not optimistic. There’s about a thousand things that can still derail Trump at this point, elected or not.

I keep repeating myself, I know… but I need to say it again. Regardless of the outcome of this election there’s going to be some spicy chaos going on. Neither side will be happy and they’re going to find someone to take it out on. I’m happy I live in a mountainous enclave that’s far away from big cities. If you’re unlucky enough to live in one of those big cities – now’s the time to prepare for the unrest that coming.

Government, Politics

Will There Be A Debate?

There’s some 3D chess going on over at the DNC right now that I can’t stop thinking about. I was genuinely surprised when the Biden campaign agreed to debate the bad orange man. The first debate, hosted by CNN, will be on June 27. The entire planet sees that Biden is not the same person he was four years ago. The man has rapidly advancing dementia and at this point struggles to read a teleprompter. He can barely form a coherent sentence and his handlers prevent him from answering any press questions. When he does interact with the press he has a pre-printed card with his answers to the carefully screened questions. I do not believe Biden is capable of standing up for an hour and speaking extemporaneously in response to debate questions – even if he has the questions in advance. The mans mental faculties are simply too far gone at this point to handle this sort of challenge. So the million dollar question… why would the DNC risk putting him on the stage? It makes no sense.

One possibility is that they want him to fail spectacularly and use that as the excuse to give his delegates to Gavin Newsom at the convention. Or, maybe the thought is that his stage performance will be so alarming, they’ll invoke the 25th amendment to make Kamala the first female president. If she was already the sitting president that would at least give her a chance at being reelected.

Maybe they never intended to actually debate? It could be that there was always a planned reason to reject the debate. Could Trump being found guilty yesterday be the reason? Biden can claim that he has no interest in debating a convicted felon and will therefore skip the debate.

Who knows – maybe all these trips to the beach in Delaware have actually been debate prep and Biden will come out and surprise us all. Maybe.

These are certainly strange times. I predicted long ago that Biden will not be the nominee. I still think that’s the case… but I’ll admit that I’m puzzled at what’s going on. I was sure Biden would have dropped out by now to give Gavin or Kamala plenty of time to campaign. I guess in reality people don’t actually pay attention until the last few months so changing candidates at the convention in August may not be that big of a deal.

It’s just hard to imagine that the DNC would risk the presidency by keeping Biden as the candidate. Unless all along the plan was to assume that at least one of the many Trump trials would either imprison him or so severely cripple his campaign he wouldn’t have a chance. Biden is reelected and steps down shortly after so Kamala can take the helm. The Obama regime can have their first woman president and another useful stooge to do their bidding.

This game of thrones is getting interesting for sure. No matter which way it turns out, I think things are going to get spicy for the country. Good for the oligarchs, not so good for the regular people.

Keep your head on a swivel my friends.

Government, Politics

What Comes Next?

I’ll admit, I’m a little worried at the current state of world affairs. My unease was made worse by a book I just finished. It’s called “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by investigative reporter Annie Jacobsen. I highly recommend it. It describes step by step exactly what happens in a nuclear exchange, from how the nuclear football works, to what the blast damage looks like. The TLDR is… your best bet is to be at ground zero and have it all over instantly. Anything else is just prolonged suffering. Nobody wins.

My bigger takeaway from the book is how fragile the entire system is. It’s truly frightening how little of a misjudgment it would take to kick the whole thing off. If we (or Russia or China) detect what we think is a nuclear warhead being launched, the president has six minutes to decide what to do. SIX MINUTES. And when you look at the shuffling dementia patient who currently holds the keys… I’m not filled with confidence at the decision making ability.

Now fast forward to today. Iran launched a massive strike against Israel. Fortunately all except seven of the missiles and drones were shot down. But now we face the million dollar question – now what?

Was this just stupid chest thumping by Iran so they can reclaim their manhood after their general was liquified by an Israeli missile in retaliation for Oct 7? It sort of looks like that since what they launched was old, slow, and we’ve known it was coming for a week now. If that was the case, shouldn’t both sides simply retreat back to their corners and maintain the status quo? Is it worth kicking off a full scale regional war that has the potential of escalating to something much worse?

But what if it was something else? What if it was a probe to judge the response? The US/UK/Israel basically just showed Iran (and anyone else watching) exactly what our response times are, how we respond, where each defensive launch point is, and how effective the anti-missile defense is. How many more iron dome and arrow missiles do we and Israel have remaining? Seems like a worthwhile exercise to go through if you don’t fear any real retaliation.

Let’s be real. The goal is to drive the Jews into the sea. Always has been, always will. The players may change, but the desire to eradicate Israel never ends. There is no amount of appeasement that is going to fix this. October 7th was a stark reminder. The moment Israel lets its guard down, even for a moment, the invading hoards will swarm intent on massacre. You know it, and I know it. If Iran thinks it can get away with an even bigger strike with minimal consequences, they’ll do it and you know it to be true. So what do we do?

My gut says it’s time to have a joint US/UK/Israel strike against Iran to completely devastate their infrastructure and economy. Ensure their nuclear weapon development programs are destroyed. Make sure they have zero economic power. It’s not like they’re going to hate us any more than they already do. While we’re at it, let’s wrest control back of the Red Sea shipping lanes. Oh, and how about we put some pressure on our “allies” like Qatar to stop harboring Hamas leadership? Help Israel finish cleaning out Hamas and start building bigger and better walls around Gaza and the West Bank. While we’re at it, southern Lebanon and Hezbollah should probably get a taste of real retribution. No more firing rockets into civilian homes with impunity.

Sometimes, a good ass kicking is the only way to stop a bully.

All fine and dandy, except… I’m not sure we can put that genie back in the bottle once it’s out. And color me skeptical, but I have zero faith in our “leaders” to make good decisions. Would Russia step in? Would China take this opportunity to take Taiwan? Do we really want to be mired in another forever war in the Middle East? What a mess.

It’s clear that our “experts”, both past and present, pretty much don’t know doodly-squat. Their ability to predict outcomes and consequences leave much to be desired. Like I said in the beginning, it wouldn’t take much for things to go horribly wrong. After all, WWI was started after some archduke was assassinated. The wrong missile flys over the wrong airspace and… boom. The end.

It’s a sobering thought. It’s a very scary time. Do we encourage everyone to step back, or do we go thump some heads before things get worse? Glad I’m not making the decisions. I just wish I had more faith in those who are.

Elections have consequences.

Government, Politics

The Adults Are Back In Charge

The level of incompetence found in this administration is breathtaking. Or it’s calculated evil. I can’t decide which. Before you start shouting about the Illuminati partnering with the WEF to create a new global world order… it’s not. This is a case of snotty, condescending, east coast elites who all went to the best Ivy League schools and are sure they’re the smartest kids in the class. Suddenly they find themselves in power and discover that the cockamamie ideas they bantered about in their dorm rooms when they were making fun of Dan Quayle spelling potato, aren’t working in real life. But just like Disney, rather than admit they were wrong, they decide to double down. And that scares the hell out of me.

Yesterday Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed that Ukraine will join NATO. National security advisor Jake Sullivan said the same thing last July. So not only are we doing everything humanly possible to prolong the war in Ukraine, we’ve decided that our foreign policy objective is to cross the red line that Putin specifically declared as a path to war. Why?

Why do we continue to push a war that Ukraine has no chance of winning? None. Zero. If you disagree, please explain how Ukraine is going to defeat the entire Russian army – and not just defeat them, but destroy them to the point that Russia will pull back to the original border and Putin will simply apologize and promise to never do it again. Do you really, honestly, think that’s going to happen? Of course not and you know it. So what exactly then is our objective?

At some point, Putin will tire of the stalemate and choose to take decisive action. And then what do we do? This brinksmanship is beyond frightening because of how fast it could escalate to something really bad. Meanwhile, we’re going to vote to send Ukraine another 60 billion dollars (that we don’t have) next week. And, as confirmed by representative Massie, not a single congressperson nor the state department even has the slightest idea how many Ukrainians have been killed in this war. It’s disgusting.

The disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. The unintended consequences of the open border. Loss of the strategic petroleum reserve. Near total depletion of our military ammunition stockpiles. Nord Stream. China spy balloons. The fragile beginnings of Middle East peace are gone. Iran. Threatening Israel while Hamas still holds US hostages. Red Sea shipping shut down by the Houthis. The hits just keep on coming.

I’m not sure I can come up with anything that looks like foreign police success for this administration. It’s pretty bad when your track record is literally zero after almost four years. At this point, I think you could randomly pick people out of the phone book and they’d do a better job. This administration, and the “deep state” for that matter, has become the living embodiment of the Peter Principle – “people in a hierarchy tend to rise to a level of respective incompetence”. We’re living with a governmental bureaucracy ushered in by the Obama administration. Flotillas of idealistic “hope and change” Ivy League college kids who went straight from school to the Washington machine without any real world experience. Now years later, they’ve risen to the top and are leading us to disaster. At this point I think I’d prefer the evil Klaus Schwab Illuminati scenario – at least it’s explainable.

As Obama famously said, “elections have consequences”. He was more right than he could have imagined. We need to take the sharp objects away from the “adults in charge” soon, before things go really bad.

Government, Politics

Does Iowa Even Matter?

I’m happy I don’t live in Iowa right now. I can’t imagine having 24×7 campaign crap going on for months. Non-stop door knockers, rallies, photo ops, and every commercial a political ad. No thanks. And the funny thing is… in the last twenty years, whomever Iowa chose as their candidate in the primary did not go on to become the actual GOP nominee. They chose Ted Cruz in ’16. Rick Santorum in ’12 and Mike Huckabee in ’08. Even the polling has been wrong. All polls indicated Trump would win the caucus nomination in ’16. So if Iowa is wrong every single time, why is such a big deal made of it?

I also live in a state that, for different reasons, does not matter in presidential elections. I suppose fortunately we barely exist politically, so we see a tiny fraction of the campaigning other states experience. We are a red state and will remain solidly so – at least for a while longer. The tide is turning and I can see us turning purple in the next ten years or so. Trump never bothered to visit in ’16 (actually I don’t think he’s ever been here). Ted Cruz visited and had a resounding primary win over Trump. Clearly it didn’t matter in the end.

So Iowa is wrong every time and the polling about Iowa is wrong every time. Meanwhile the press, as usual, has vehemently declared the ascendency and demise of every candidate in the running at some point. It’s all pretty silly.

Politics are in a weird place right now. Nothing seems normal.

Trump is the apparent favorite for the nomination, yet he doesn’t debate, answer questions, or interact with voters. He only holds mega rallies for fawning fans and spews one-liners for applause.

DeSantis was the favorite and then dropped off the press radar despite knocking on more doors and holding more events than any other candidate. Did he really fizzle with the population, or did only the press declare him dead?

Haley is the new media darling. She’s clearly the deep state choice. There’s even a big push for democrats to switch and vote for her in an apparent attempt to block Trump. She’s definitely Jeb! in high heels.

Vivek is hands down the most interesting candidate. The smartest, most articulate, and the only one with actual plans rather than campaign slogans. He also has zero chance. He is so dangerous to the establishment, there is no possibility they’d let him get anywhere near the nomination. They’d Bobby Kennedy him long before he got near the win.

And Biden… I don’t even know what to say about him. He campaigned in ’20 on Zoom from his basement. At this point they’re simply trying to keep him from falling off stairs or getting lost. I’m honestly shocked he’s still running. I was sure they’d have him drop out by now.

So conventional wisdom and polling says that Trump will be the eventual GOP nominee. Will that hold up? I think it’s a coin toss at this point. Reading the tea leaves, what the Enterprise/deep state is trying to engineer is a Haley v Biden or Newsom match up. They win no matter what in that scenario.

Anyhoo, Iowa will be the talk of the town – for about 72 more hours, before once again sliding into obscurity. Last day before ’24 voting officially starts… cards on the table, what’s your prediction as to how this all plays out on November 5th?

“Elections belong to the people. It’s their decision. If they decide to turn their back on the fire and burn their behinds, then they will just have to sit on their blisters.”
– Abraham Lincoln

Government, Politics

It’s Chaos, Baby!

In case you missed it, which would be difficult to do, the state of Colorado removed the bad orange man from their ballot. The CO state Supreme Court ruled that due to insurrection, mean tweets, something or other, he is ineligible because of the 14th amendment. Odds are that the federal Supreme Court will overturn it, but you never know. It doesn’t really matter, because the actual point is chaos. Now, I’m going to say some things that the Trump diehards don’t want to hear. Buckle up, buttercup.

So let’s imagine for a second that Trump has managed to somehow beat or delay the 92 felony counts pending against him. And he’s prevailed in his, now, three Supreme Court filings and whatever future lawsuits will be filed between now and GOP convention. Assume the current polling is actually accurate and he manages to secure the GOP nomination. Now what?

Are you really going to delude yourself into thinking that the bulk of the Haley/DeSantis voters will happily turn out and vote for him in the general election? The never-Trump wing of the Republican Party is substantial. The big money machine of the enterprise is not going to support Trump (they want Haley). So in an era in which we know the GOP needs to eclipse 80+ million votes to beat the DNC candidate… in an environment in which the GOP has done NOTHING to combat the mail-in/absentee/Zuckerbucks issues that plagued the last election – you’re going to tell me that an absolute crushing avalanche of republican voters in swing states are going to turn out on Election Day and vote Trump in? Hmmm, ok.

I guess it might happen. I’ve been wrong before. Let’s say the bad orange man actually does manage to win. What next? Trump is a walking ego-driven chaos factory. You thought the deep state/media machine conspired against him at every turn last go ’round? You ain’t seen nothing yet baby. He will be steamrolled and blocked at every possible turn. In all likelihood the GOP will have lost both the house and senate, so he’s not going to get anything done there.

All the things he’s currently saying he’ll get done during his ego stroking rallies today… he didn’t get them done last time. What makes you think he’d get them done this time when the deep state opposition will be 100x greater than it was his last term?

One of his greatest failings last time was poor personnel choices. The end result was that virtually all major players in the Trump White House either turned against him and/or are now mired in legal actions brought by the DOJ. What sane, competent person would agree to serve Trump this time – knowing that most likely they’ll be facing millions of dollars in legal fees before the term is over?

Trump absolutely gets credit for not screwing up an already accelerating economy and unemployment rate (yes, really). But at the same time he didn’t build the wall and didn’t make Mexico pay for anything (despite controlling the house and senate), he gave us Fauci, Birx, the untested vaccine, mandatory jabs, lockdowns, he didn’t clean out the FBI or the DOJ, and added $7.8 Trillion to the national debt. Oh, and a lot of mean tweets.

Outside of the Trump rallies, people remember these things. They remember the chaos. I don’t think the average GOP voter wants another four years of the bad orange man sucking all the oxygen out of the room 24×7, for little effect. But I could be wrong.

All that aside, here’s the key issue. I suspect the deep state/DNC is salivating at the idea of Trump losing either the GOP nomination or the presidency due to court actions (as opposed to simply losing early in the primaries to another candidate). Why? Because the Right will lose their collective minds. If Trump is blocked from wining the GOP nomination I think we’ll see actual violence. Trump is the symptom of a bigger problem. The Right feels that they’re losing the country. The far left, woke, open borders, DEI policies are crushing what’s left of the American identity. Trump being quashed by the machine is going to send some folks over the edge – even the never-Trumpers would be angry (relieved, but still furious at the injustice).

And THAT is what the deep state is waiting for. Any excuse to come down like a ton of bricks with enhanced security, monitoring, and control. Federal misinformation departments, a supercharged DOJ and FBI, unending FISA warrantless searches… they’ll have their rational. We can’t have an angry right-wing marching in the streets. Leaked DHS memos already show they consider nationalist/white supremacist domestic terror to be one of the top security concerns. J6 and arrests for posting memes will seem like child’s play. Speak out against anything in the government approved lexicon and you’re toast. And President Newsom, with Democratic control of the house and senate, will happily usher in this new era of the Orwellian/American empire.

Or maybe not. Maybe the DNC is stupid enough to keep Biden as the candidate. Maybe Haley will win and our only issue will be war with the greater Middle East and Russia.

Either way, 2024 is going to be interesting times.

Welcome to the Jungle, Guns ‘N Roses

Welcome to the jungle it gets worse here everyday
You learn to live like an animal in the jungle where we play
If you got a hunger for what you see, you’ll take it eventually
You can have anything you want but you better not take it from me

In the jungle, welcome to the jungle
Watch it bring you to your kn-kn-knees, knees
I’m gonna watch you bleed

Government, Politics

Shuffle The Deck

Enjoying the clown show? It might almost be funny to sit back and watch this administration flail about if the consequences weren’t so dire. I do not underestimate the ability of these clowns to blunder us into an actual, serious armed conflict involving U.S. forces. Now don’t think I’m just blaming the democrats for where we’re at. It’s taken decades of incompetence, grift, and arrogance from both parties to get to this point. And along the way, we’ve managed to create a fourth branch of government that is unelected, unsupervised, and unchecked – the Federal Bureaucracy. a.k.a. the deep state.

As the old saying goes, while Putin and Xi are playing 3D chess, we’re playing checkers. Well, to be fair this administration is playing tic-tac-toe. Russia and China plan the long game. We plan for the latest news cycle. The EU worshiped at the Church of Climate Change. They now need Russia’s oil and gas. Germany is fully in bed with Russia. You’ll notice that Europe is doing virtually nothing about all this. Putin correctly judged that our economy is in trouble and we’re too busy arguing over pronouns and which bridges are the most racist. In all likelihood the sanctions will end up hurting us more than Russia. We’ll do nothing (hopefully), and he knew it. Game, set, match. Russia will now have a heavily defended buffer zone against NATO. Meanwhile, the US spent billions trying to set up yet another puppet state in the name of “democracy” that failed. Sound familiar? It’s like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. How come we never learn? Since WWII, we have failed at every single foreign policy intervention we’ve attempted. All at the cost of trillions and thousands upon thousands of lives. And yet we continue to listen to the same foreign policy “experts”.

And now we’re at the brink of a serious inflection point. I’m honestly surprised that China hasn’t moved on Taiwan yet. That’s the big test. What would we do? Are we going to get into a shooting war with China? I’m pretty sure that won’t go well. I’m sorry if I sound skeptical, but the same people who planned the Afghan withdraw, fired SOF folks for refusing the jab, and seem more worried about white rage and DEI in the military, are still in charge. It’s ok though, just like with every conflict, the UN will write a strongly worded letter.

So, what are we to do? Create a new, third party like Andrew Yang thinks? Term limits? I think term limits absolutely needs to be a part of any change. The corruption and self-interest in Washington (and state politics) is endemic. These people are dug in like ticks on a hound. If we have any hope of staving off our total demise, we need to start getting rid of the political establishment. But how do you get someone to vote for something that’s not in their self-interest?

It’s time to shuffle the deck. How? VOTE THEM OUT. Who? ALL OF THEM. Every single one of them. Both parties. Regardless of party, choose someone new. Do not re-elect the same clown. Everyone gets primaried. Even if the same clown gets re-elected, make them fight for it. Demand accountability. And next election cycle – do it again. We need to keep shuffling the deck until we get the hand we want.

Is that realistic? Nope. Is it going to happen? Nope. As negative as that sounds, I do see a tiny sliver of hope. There is a sense of frustration in the country. People are getting tired of the authoritarians. They’re pushing back against CRT and mask mandates, and censorship. At the moment, it looks like the next election cycle will be a bloodbath for the left. Will the right do something with it, or revert to politics as usual? If the new congress starts behaving like representatives of the people, AND, if we elect an actual leader (no, not Trump) with the next presidential cycle… there’s a small chance we can start to right the ship.

I give it a 10% chance. I fear that it’s probably already too late. History shows that once you start that downslide, it’s pretty hard to fight momentum. Realistically it’s not an issue for my generation – this will be for the next generation to live with. Unfortunately, this new generation aren’t much for learning from history. Because, like, you know, history is all racist or something.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

 Upton Sinclair

Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

A Case For Universal Basic Income

I should start out by saying that I do not agree with implementing a Universal Basic Income (UBI). However I recently listened to a podcast with Andrew Yang, a 2020 presidential candidate, and he made the most compelling case yet for it. I think the alarm bell he’s ringing is true… I’m just am not convinced UBI is the right solution.

Mr. Yang’s premise is that due to AI and automation one-third of all working Americans are going to lose their job in the next 12 years. Most of these workers are going to have a very hard time finding new employment. He makes the case that it’s not realistic to think that you’re going to re-train a truck driver from rural Iowa to write code. By giving every working age American $1000 a month you provide a safety net that will be put back into the economy in the form of gas, groceries, fuel, etc… A UBI paid for by a VAT tax. You have a choice of taking the UBI or social services (e.g. food stamps) but not both.

I agree that the coming AI boom is going to displace mass numbers of people. The Mckinsey research group estimates between 400 and 800 million people will be replaced by automation by 2030 worldwide. In the US, the top ten professions are mostly all lower wage jobs. The top five are:

  • #1 for males – truck driver
  • Retail sales
  • cashier
  • office clerk
  • food prep
  • customer service

The mean annual income in the US is $46,000. Every single one of those most common jobs listed is replaceable by automation. A third of the country out of work is a recipe for a real economic crisis that I’m not sure we can survive. The taxpayers are going to pay one way or another – in the form of food stamps, medical, etc…

There are folks who claim we’ve always had revolutions in technology that displace workers – let them #learntocode (don’t put that on Twitter!) The difference between the first and second industrial revolutions and today’s displaced workers is twofold; first the scale of displaced workers was much smaller and second, those revolutions actually spawned a middle class. An uneducated displaced farm worker could move to the city, work in a factory and support a family. Today it’s actually those lower-middle class jobs we’re removing.

So what’s my solution? I don’t know. As a libertarian-ish person I have a very hard time seizing taxpayer money and giving it to others because they made poor decisions and aren’t busting their ass to improve themselves. I also recognize that a mob of hungry, desperate people rioting with pitchforks isn’t in societies interest either.

Most politicians will push for ungodly expensive government boondoggle spending programs to “re-train” workers. Those are usually bottomless money pits with little positive outcome. I applaud Mr. Yang for at least being brave enough to raise the issue and give a plausible solution.

Is UBI the right solution? The more I think about it, the more I’m on the fence. It’s not often I stumble upon an issue where I don’t have a clear opinion. What do we do with 100 million people in this country out of work and no skills to bridge the gap? I’m curious what you think? What’s the right answer? Is this even a problem? Maybe the revolution will happen slower than we think. It’s certainly worth having a discussion… but I suspect we’ll ignore it until too late.

Cool, Daily Life, Lists

Notions Of Cool V.008

A random list of things and shower thoughts that an old guy (who still thinks he’s 20) finds cool or worth pondering.

  • Wrapping up... So weather isn’t getting more extreme, the models are wildly inaccurate, Tuvalu isn’t sinking, the troposphere isn’t warming, and we had a 19 year pause in warming. The business of science is to be skeptical. At minimum all this should make folks think hmmm, maybe there’s more factors here than we originally thought. I’m open – please change my mind. What exactly is the crisis?
  • Was listening to an older podcast with Tim Kennedy. The obesity epidemic in this country has gotten so bad the military doesn’t have a large enough pool of people to select from for special units. This seems like sort of an issue, no?
  • Same podcast I learned that Josef Mengele, the angel of death Nazi, died of old age and a stroke on the beach in Brazil. That’s disconcerting. I’m going to have to watch his show now – Hunting Hitler. I had no idea that we actually don’t know if Hitler died in that bunker as we’ve been taught.
  • I sincerely hope the current North Korea summit goes well. The last thing we need right now is to get in a pissing match with a nutcase.
  • Some interesting thoughts from Tim Pool. There are more people and states in the country that identify as conservative. However there are more registered democrats than republicans. Trumps approval ratings are up and the view people have of America is up. I don’t see AOC’s rantings, the open borders thing, or Bernie being a positive thing for securing Michigan, Ohio, or New Mexico. Very early still.
  • A friend introduced me to this game – Geoguessr. Be careful, it’s addictive.

Song of the day: Sugar Ray “Fly”