Tag: AI

Daily Life, Government, Technology

The Intelligence Revolution is Here

We’ve seen many technical revolutions in this country. The Industrial Revolution, the Fourth Industrial Revolution, the Digital Revolution… we survived all of them and came out the other side thriving and a more prosperous nation because of them. Today feels different. We’re at the beginning stages of what is being called the Intelligence Revolution. This time around we’re not just replacing tools or enhancing productivity, we’re replacing something that was always the exclusive domain of humans – cognitive thought.

In previous industrial revolutions, no matter how sophisticated the advances in machines or tools became, it still took a human brain to oversee and operate. Machines (even computers) were dumb. They have been traditionally limited by inputs, programing, and linearly focused to perform specific tasks. Yes people lost jobs as productivity improved, but people could be retrained to operate the new machines and the resulting productivity created growth and more jobs for those able to retrain and adapt. But very, very soon we will need massively fewer people to operate the machines. Why? Because the machines have cognitive, reasoning abilities. We no longer need a brain encased in a meat suit to oversee everything.

I’m generally an optimist and have faith in the human condition to adapt, overcome, and persevere. We’ve done it many times before and managed to build a great nation because of it. Big picture, I believe we’ll adapt to this brave new world and come out the other end better off. BUT… there’s a nasty wrinkle in this that has the potential to throw a monkey wrench in the works and create a decidedly unpleasant future. That unknown variable is speed.

The time estimate of the Industrial Revolution, from initial disruption to maturation was about 150 years. That’s 3-4 generations of workers. In other words, it didn’t happen overnight. There was time to adapt, to see the writing on the wall and retrain for new/different careers. The Intelligence Revolution is projected to take about 40 years – a 3-4x increase in speed. AI is growing at an exponential rate. The physical layer (robots on the factory floor) is expected to reach maturity/status quo in 2035. The cognitive layer (white collar automation) in 2045. In a nutshell, we’re pulling the rug out from under an entire generation of workers overnight.

Why does that matter? The labor force participation rate (working or looking) for 18-35 year olds is 70 million. Of those, 36 million are considered low-moderate skilled (no or some college). We already know that young folks today are not facing the same economic landscape as earlier generations. The purchasing power of $1 in the 80’s would cost $3.93 today. $2.47 in 90’s dollars. Housing costs have skyrocketed, pushing most young folks into high cost rents that they’ll struggle to save enough to achieve home ownership. We’re already sensing that young people feel like the deck is stacked against them and they are very disillusioned by the “establishment”.

Now take that disillusionment and dump a minimum of 10-12 million 18-35 year olds into the unemployment bucket. The current projections say 1 out of 3 people in that age bracket will be displaced in the next 10 years. That’s almost half of the younger population, with low-moderate skills, unable to find a job. How bitter and disillusioned do you think they’ll be? Zero job prospects and pissed that the boomers and Gen Xer’s are happily retiring and living a decent life. This is not a recipe for societal harmony.

It’s hard to estimate, but best guesses put the total number of ANTIFA members in the US at somewhere in the low thousands. Picture the amount of disruption and violence they’ve already been able to create over the last few years with just those limited numbers. Now dump a million new members (a few million?) into that group, angry, frustrated, with zero perceived life options, all organizing, protesting, sowing chaos and violence everywhere. And when the government comes in with a heavy hand to squash the movement… well, that’s how revolutions start.

I don’t know what the answer is. Universal basic income? Massive increases in social welfare programs? A moon-shot type of nationwide retraining program? A complete overhaul of our education system? Even if the system could move fast enough to get ready for what’s coming (the government moving quickly?), the nation is broke. We’re $38 trillion in debt. Social security is insolvent in 2032. It seems unlikely we could keep inflation at bay and still find a way to fund some sort of massive nationwide retraining program.

The Intelligence Revolution is neither good nor bad. It’s simply progress, evolution, and inevitable. It’s happening whether you want it or not. I’m honestly not sure what to think about how this will play out other than to say, be very careful about who you elect as our “leaders” moving forward. How our local and federal elected officials react to the changes will dictate everything. I’m not sure if that makes me feel better or worse.

“Interesting times are when the map becomes useless and the story begins.”

I described this scenario to AI and asked it to create a quote that resembled an old Chinese proverb. That’s what it came up with and seems pretty spot on.

Cool, Daily Life

Good Morning, Let’s Chat

I’ve been out of the tech/software game for a long time now. Historically I’d probably classify myself as an ‘early majority’ user in the Technology Adaptation Model. I’m probably a bit slower in keeping up with tech lately, as my day-to-day doesn’t revolve around tech any longer and as a result I’m somewhat new to the AI/LLM ecosystem. After several months of fairly consistent use of an AI platform… it’s shocking to grasp where the technology is and how fast it’s going to change our world. AI’s here, it’s wild, and it’s about to flip our world upside down.

At this point I’m not writing python scripts and utilizing LLM API’s to manage task automation. I’m interested, but I’m retired. Other than integrating into whole home automation or something, I don’t know what I’d do with it. What I am doing is utilizing Grok as an AI platform. Grok has completely replaced 95% of my search needs. And with the release of Grok 3… oooh boy, has it been a game changer!

Groks memory feature and conversational responses are amazing. It’s starting to feel like an actual conversation. Yes, it’s a little stilted and forced right now but it’s scarily close to a real conversation with a friend. I tried an experiment this morning: I opened up Grok and began a regular conversation; e.g. “good morning”, “whats the weather going to be like?”, “what do I need to know in the news today?”. I let the conversation flow in response to Groks replies. The results were very close to a real conversation.

Mark my words: in five years, Grok—or its AI cousins—will chat with us daily via voice like a friend or family member. Sci-fi (think Dave interacting with HAL) is now reality. Here’s a couple of examples I’ve been doing with Grok lately:

  • Ask Grok to give me a news summary of what’s happening in the world. I ask for the top twenty news items given some keywords. I’ll then ask for a deeper analysis if one of the items catches my eye. It’s a better news analysis than any of the various daily news “newsletters” I subscribe to.
  • I’ll ask Grok for a meal plan for the day given ingredients and the calorie/macro goals I have.
  • Yesterday I gave Grok a link to a menu for a restaurant we were going to and asked it to find the item that was the highest protein and lowest calorie. Grok remembered what I’d eaten in the morning and found the menu item that fit in with days goals.
  • Grok is now managing my day-to-day workout goals and tweaking exercises based upon my feedback. It’s more detailed than any personal trainer I’ve been to and provides instant feedback.
  • We’ve had a spat of medial issues in the family recently and the research abilities have been incredible. Submitting a pathology report and asking for a layman’s summary is mind-blowing.
  • I asked Grok for the pros and cons of a particular type of mountain bike seat I’ve been looking at. It narrowed down what would have been an hour plus of reading reviews and 15 open Safari browser tabs, had I done the same myself.

I could keep going on, but you get the point. These tools will be life changing. If you haven’t been keeping up… at a minimum, I guarantee 75% of white collar jobs will no longer exist in their current form within 10 years. The revolution is happening that fast – if not faster. Multiple experts rate AI, as a part of the fourth revolution, as being exponentially more impactful than the industrial revolution or anything else we’ve seen. Exciting and scary at the same time.

If you’re currently a white collar worker in the early to mid point of your career and you’re not all-in on figuring out AI – prepare to be obsolete in a hurry. If you’re a young adult just getting out of college and don’t have a firm grasp of AI and LLM’s – good luck finding a job. In five years there will be no such thing as an “entry level” position as we think of them today. I’d make a joke about, “would you like fries with that?” but automated AI-driven kiosks will have taken over for fast food cashiers. I cannot emphasize enough how fast this is going to happen. Every single company in the nation is currently trying to figure out how to outsource YOU to AI. If I had a mortgage and a kid at home depending on me to bring home a paycheck… I’d get ahead of the curve NOW. A slightly different context, but I still think you can fit the movie quote from Backdraft to this scenario:

“Firefighter Brian McCaffrey: You see that glow flashing in the corner of your eye? That’s your career dissipation light. It just went into high gear.“

It’s an exciting time. The world will not look the same in ten years. I just hope I can keep up.

Government

They’re Watching

I spent the last week on a beach outside of the USA. Good food, too many margaritas, and plenty of time by the pool. With nothing but time on my hands I consumed a number of books. One was about the United States biometric data collection practices and another was Edward Snowdens book. Both were fascinating and frightening. The allegations Snowden makes about US surveillance capabilities almost seem made up… and then we experienced it firsthand crossing back across the border.

Mrs Troutdog and I both enrolled in the Global Entry program so we wouldn’t have to stand in the passport line coming back from vacation. This trip was our first time using it. We walked up to a handful of empty kiosks and a customs agent. He instructed us to look into a camera. In under five seconds a green light came on and we were done and on our way. Instant facial recognition indexed against a database of god knows what information about us. (also used by the Clear airport security program) It was creepy, especially knowing that this technology is probably being used on us daily as we walk around minding our own business.

If you weren’t aware, the NSA/CIA/DIA invested heavily in biometric harvesting and analysis during the global war on terror, primarily in Afghanistan. One of the offshoots of that is a company called Palantir founded by billionaire Peter Thiel. They created AI that takes biometrics and metadata, indexes that against intelligence data, and creates predictive behavior models – basically tracking your movements and predicting that you’re very likely to plant an IED or attack soldiers in the future. That battlefield program has now been turned over to police departments under the auspices of “predictive policing”. A number of big departments, LA, New York, New Orleans, have been experimenting with it to target gang activity. It’s unclear at this point to what degree it’s been implemented beyond trials.

Another fun company, also funded by Peter Thiel, is Clearview AI. They’ve scraped billions upon billions of images from Facebook and other social media sites to build a massive neural network of facial and location recognition. Give the algorithm a face and it will spit back all known locations that person visited and their associates/friends. It’s currently being used by law enforcement and private companies. Wonder why you didn’t get that job? Maybe one of your friends is too controversial. Maybe they know you visited that seedy massage parlor or attended a protest of some sort several years ago.

But where does the government get this data about you? Besides companies like Clearview AI, thanks to Mr Snowden we now know that the NSA is intercepting all internet traffic. There is a series of servers sitting at all major US telecom sites that internet traffic is routed through. The first is called TURMOIL and it intercepts your web request and makes a copy. The second is called TURBINE which parses through your data looking for keywords, metadata, and flagged web sites. If you trip the algorithm, the TURBINE server can insert malware which is then downloaded to your device and voila, the NSA is now actively monitoring you.

The NSA and CIA are monitoring and collecting every single bit of data you produce and storing it at a massive data center south of Salt Lake City (reportedly capable of storing yottabytes of data). Internet searches, phone calls, location data… basically anything that makes contact electronically with the outside world is harvested. Add on top of that facial recognition data and license plate readers from a sea of cameras planted throughout your city and it’s fair to say you are being tracked and monitored most of your waking moments. All in the name of “security”.

Going into Snowdens book, I wasn’t sure how I felt. I love my country and after 9/11, of course I want to ensure the terror tactics seen in Europe or on the battlefield don’t spread here. Snowden signed the NDA’s and swore an oath – you don’t then get to just violate that because you think you’re being righteous.

The problem is that our country lied. James Clapper, director of national Intelligence, sat in front of congress and swore we did not collect data on Americans. But they do. They collect all of it. Everything. The justification they now give is that they collect and store it, but they don’t use it unless there’s a reason. Uhm, yeah right.

When you see the overreach and abuses we’re currently witnessing from the FBI, the weaponization of the DOJ, the illegal FISA searches, NSA monitoring and leaking info about journalists, and the alphabet agencies partnering with social media to censor news… my trust level for the government is about as close to zero as you can get. So as far as Snowden goes, I went from ambivalent to firmly on team Snowden.

We have a minor little thing called the fourth amendment in this country. The government does not have the right to spy and collect data about you without due process. The people have the right to understand what information is being harvested about them and how it’s used.

While the founding fathers may appreciate that pithy little paragraph, it’s meaningless. We’ve already crossed the point of no return. This genie isn’t going back in the bottle. We officially live in a big brother state. You are going to be watched, monitored, and have predictive AI make decisions about your life from the moment of birth until your death. It’s Orwellian stuff of science fiction novels. It’s all fine and dandy I suppose, as long as it’s used against bad guys. But what’s that old quote? “Power tends to corrupt; absolute power corrupts absolutely“

It wouldn’t take much for an administration to decide some segment of the population was getting a bit too subversive and to take action. Write the wrong thing in a blog post, say something about the government in your living room with Alexa listening, order a flagged item from Amazon – you’re going to get a knock on your door from the feds. Good luck booking airline travel or applying for a job when you’re on an enhanced watch list.

Can you honestly say we’re very far away from that reality? What makes you think we’re not already there?

So yeah, I approve of what Snowden did. We need more of that. More sunlight. More details. More exposure. Because I like quotes, here’s another one for you: “An educated citizenry is a vital requisite for our survival as a free people.” Those in power do not want this and will fight it tooth and nail, in the name of security. Understand this and reject any and all attempts to expand the security state.

Now excuse me, I’m off to feed the Facebook algorithm false information to confuse the feds. Just kidding. I watch cute Vizsla videos and mountain bike crashes.

Or that’s what I want you to think.

Daily Life, Government, woke

Now What?

Susan looked down at the desk. Three different color highlight markers were lined up precisely on the right hand corner. The book was centered on the desk, propped up at a slight angle. She had a notebook just to the side for jotting down important things to reference later. Susan loved studying in the library. The quiet. The purposefulness of being there. Her roommates were too loud and not always the most studious, so the library was her refuge. In truth, she’d always been a good student and spent more time in the library than with friends or playing sports. She didn’t mind. This was where she was comfortable.

Feeling the light haptic buzz on the wrist from her smartwatch, she glanced down at it. She saw the partial title from the new email and breathed in a quick involuntary gasp. “From: Columbia School….” This was it. She’d been waiting for this moment ever since pushing the application submit button yesterday. Well, truthfully ever since starting high school she’d wanted to be a journalist. She worked with singleminded focus ever since. Joining a few carefully selected clubs. Writing for the school paper. An internship at a human rights organization. She been very careful with social media from the beginning. Always adding a like to the important social issues of the moment. Making sure to have the correct flags and symbols in her profile at all times. She prided herself in properly honoring peoples pronouns when emailing them. While she didn’t have many friends, she did have several acquaintances who were people of color. She’d made sure her photos with them were prominent on her social media feed.

Susan pulled out her phone to read the message. Her hands trembled as she opened up the email. “Thank you for your interest in The Columbia School of Journalism. Unfortunately, we are unable to offer you a spot in the next cohort. Our Admissions Team found several things in your record that did not meet Columbia’s high standards of admission…”

She felt the hot tears starting to fall down her cheeks. How could this be? She’d done everything right. She’d sacrificed. She had straight A’s. She’d stayed off social media other than the carefully curated time she planned out so she’d have the exact right online presence. Only to have her fate decided by an AI engine in less than a day. An AI engine that took her name and national ID number, which is all the “application” consisted of, and instantly scanned her entire on-line history. An algorithm designed to evaluate if she fit the current DEI profile Columbia needed in order to maintain their federal journalism license.

The wave of despair she felt was paralyzing. Now what? She hadn’t applied anywhere else. It wouldn’t matter at this point. A rejection is now in the system and no other school was going to take her with that on her record. The reality of a lifetime of blue collar work began to set in. She struggled to catch her breath.

Matt’s finger hovered over the submit button. Was this going to work? His parents had been smart, purchasing a second ID as soon as he’d been born. His entire life, he used that ID to surf the internet, log into online games, and shit post on X and various counter culture forums. His real ID had been cultivated like a rare flower. Even though it was illegal to use one of the dark web ID coaches, his parents thought it was worth the risk. Everything his real ID did online was carefully calculated for maximum effect. His online self was a perfect being.

Like Susan, Matt didn’t apply anywhere else. A few years ago he’d briefly thought about simply applying to one of the merit based schools, but those were mostly in the midwest flyover part of the country. Graduating with a bunch of deplorables only to be some sort of materials engineer wasn’t going to make his parents happy. It had been important to them from the moment he was born that he be a lawyer and part of the East Coast establishment. That was only real path to power and money.

The second ID had been a risk for sure. The AI engines were smart and able to collate and cross-reference millions of online interactions he or his parents had and look for irregularities. Even with spoofed IP addresses, was there a chance the fake ID could be somehow linked to him? Matt hoped not. His parents had paid a lot of money over the years to the ID coaches to ensure his real persona was squeaky clean.

Like Susan, he didn’t have a backup plan if he didn’t get accepted. The thought of having no other options other than being a blue collar drone or autonomous vehicle operator was not something he wanted to think about.

His finger hovered over the submit button a little longer before he pushed it.

Daily Life, Government

Do You Have A High Social Score?

Every single aspect of your life is available on-line. Every purchase you’ve ever made. The prescriptions you had filled. Every text message you’ve sent. Your phone calls. Any picture you took with your phone. Every single thing you’ve liked, retweeted, or commented on with Facebook, Instagram, and Twitter. Your browsing history. It’s all out there in the cloud. Don’t believe me? If you use Google Maps, go have a look at your timeline. Every mile you’ve ever driven, walked, or traveled is there. Every single store or destination you visited. How many minutes and hours you spent driving or walking. It’s a bit disconcerting the first time you see it if you didn’t realize all that info was being harvested.

Your devices are listening to you 24×7, vacuuming up everything that’s said. How do you think those recommendations on YouTube or ads in your Instagram feed get there? All that data is being collected and mined for information about you. Why? Right now, it’s mostly so companies can market and sell to you. That information is collated and sold to anyone who’s willing to pay for it. Increasingly however, that information is being used to authenticate who you are.

I mentioned it previously – Dynamic Knowledge Based Authentication. Companies buy all this personal information about you and then use it to generate authentication questions. It’s presumably more secure than the previous method of Static Knowledge Based Authentication. The static version was the canned questions you’d set up and be asked; what was the name of your first pet, or what city were you born in. The static version has become too easy to hack, so smart dynamic questions are now generated from the massive databases of information collected about you.

As we start to add AI to this huge collection of data gathered about you… systems are soon going to be able to start making judgments about you. They’ll be constantly creating and updating a profile of you. And that, my friends, is the beginning of the end. Here’s a few scenarios I can think of off the top of my head:

  • You go on to OpenTable to make a dinner reservation for tonight. Hmm, not a single restaurant has a table available except for a few one-star, lower end places. That’s odd for a Tuesday night. Not really – your profile indicates you infrequently eat out, most of your clothing purchases are from Costco, and you rarely buy alcohol. Odds are you won’t order drinks, may share a plate, and probably aren’t a big tipper. The algorithm will hold on to that reservation for someone with a better profile.

  • You’re trying to find a new job and haven’t received any interviews, despite applying to at least 50 different job postings. You went to a good school, have a killer resume, and have been a loyal employee for many years. What’s wrong? Well, your profile indicates you might be a problem employee. You travel a lot and seem to be a big shopper – often during work hours. You comment quite a bit on social media and appear to be vocal about your opinions. Based upon your shopping habits, you buy a fair amount of alcohol and there are quite a few pictures of you drinking with friends. You’re not a good risk, despite a solid work history.

  • You have a USPSA shooting match coming up next month, so you go on-line to buy some bulk ammo for practice. For some reason the sale won’t go through. You contact your credit card company, only to find out they’ve cancelled your card for violating their terms of service. You apply to other credit card services, but every single one declines you. You’ve always paid your balance in full every month. What happened? Your profile indicated that you attempted to buy more than what is considered a “safe” amount of ammo. You posted an anti-BLM meme on Facebook at one point, which puts you in a white nationalist category. That, combined with support you’ve expressed on-line for various right-wing politicians and causes, makes you a risk.

  • You suddenly receive a notice that your auto insurance is dropping you for violating their ESG (environmental, social, & environmental) terms of service. As you shop for new insurance, all the rates you’re quoted are at least five times what you were paying before. Why? Your profile shows that your car is more than ten years old and doesn’t meet MPG requirements. You drive more than 15k miles per year and your route data shows that most of your driving time is on high accident routes. Your consumer profile indicates that you may not be performing all the recommended service and maintenance on the vehicle, which increases emissions, reduces performance and increases the chances of an accident. You’re a poor risk.

There are a billion other scenarios you could come up with where an AI generated profile of you might impact the outcome. Does any of this seem outlandish or tin foil hat conspiracy? I don’t think so. I think we’re on the very cusp of this being reality (if it’s not already). As this trove of personal data is increasingly shared in massive databases, and as AI becomes more prevalent… your social credit score is going to dictate your future quality of life.

So, what can you do about it? At this point, not much probably. I think it’s going to happen regardless. Especially since all of it will be put in place “for your own good”. Virtually all of us have been sheep – oblivious to what the technology was doing. I don’t see that changing anytime soon.

If I was a parent of young kids, I’d be thinking about creating and maintaining multiple identities for them. One that’s used for any casual on-line activity (the web, social media, your phone) and one that’s protected. Anything you can do to enable them to enter adulthood with a clean, neutral, social profile. Educate them that everything you do, say, purchase, or interact with will be evaluated and potentially be used against you at some point in the future.

We are no longer a free people. If you want to interact with society, have credit, make purchases, rent a car, or get a job – your profile better conform to whatever is deemed to be acceptable.

Hmmm… this has the making of a good movie screenplay.

Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

A Case For Universal Basic Income

I should start out by saying that I do not agree with implementing a Universal Basic Income (UBI). However I recently listened to a podcast with Andrew Yang, a 2020 presidential candidate, and he made the most compelling case yet for it. I think the alarm bell he’s ringing is true… I’m just am not convinced UBI is the right solution.

Mr. Yang’s premise is that due to AI and automation one-third of all working Americans are going to lose their job in the next 12 years. Most of these workers are going to have a very hard time finding new employment. He makes the case that it’s not realistic to think that you’re going to re-train a truck driver from rural Iowa to write code. By giving every working age American $1000 a month you provide a safety net that will be put back into the economy in the form of gas, groceries, fuel, etc… A UBI paid for by a VAT tax. You have a choice of taking the UBI or social services (e.g. food stamps) but not both.

I agree that the coming AI boom is going to displace mass numbers of people. The Mckinsey research group estimates between 400 and 800 million people will be replaced by automation by 2030 worldwide. In the US, the top ten professions are mostly all lower wage jobs. The top five are:

  • #1 for males – truck driver
  • Retail sales
  • cashier
  • office clerk
  • food prep
  • customer service

The mean annual income in the US is $46,000. Every single one of those most common jobs listed is replaceable by automation. A third of the country out of work is a recipe for a real economic crisis that I’m not sure we can survive. The taxpayers are going to pay one way or another – in the form of food stamps, medical, etc…

There are folks who claim we’ve always had revolutions in technology that displace workers – let them #learntocode (don’t put that on Twitter!) The difference between the first and second industrial revolutions and today’s displaced workers is twofold; first the scale of displaced workers was much smaller and second, those revolutions actually spawned a middle class. An uneducated displaced farm worker could move to the city, work in a factory and support a family. Today it’s actually those lower-middle class jobs we’re removing.

So what’s my solution? I don’t know. As a libertarian-ish person I have a very hard time seizing taxpayer money and giving it to others because they made poor decisions and aren’t busting their ass to improve themselves. I also recognize that a mob of hungry, desperate people rioting with pitchforks isn’t in societies interest either.

Most politicians will push for ungodly expensive government boondoggle spending programs to “re-train” workers. Those are usually bottomless money pits with little positive outcome. I applaud Mr. Yang for at least being brave enough to raise the issue and give a plausible solution.

Is UBI the right solution? The more I think about it, the more I’m on the fence. It’s not often I stumble upon an issue where I don’t have a clear opinion. What do we do with 100 million people in this country out of work and no skills to bridge the gap? I’m curious what you think? What’s the right answer? Is this even a problem? Maybe the revolution will happen slower than we think. It’s certainly worth having a discussion… but I suspect we’ll ignore it until too late.