Does anyone remember the Boy Scouts? I know I’m dating myself, but I did the whole scouting thing. Eventually we moved to a different city so I never finished my Eagle Scout, but I was pretty involved as a kid. If you didn’t know, the scout motto is “Be Prepared”. When the scouting founder, Robert Baden-Powell, was asked “be prepared for what?” He replied, “Why, for any old thing”. This way of thinking was drilled into me even further when I was a member of a Search and Rescue team. I saw first hand what happened when people wandered into the woods without adequate preparation. (hint, it was never good)

A looooong time ago I lived in California, in the Bay Area. The possibility of the big earthquake was very real. Having a minor part in my cities emergency management system, I realized what a shit show things would be if the big quake really did hit. Trust me, your government is not ready. If a couple of overpasses came down, say goodbye to your food supply (grocery stores only have 2-3 days on hand at any given time). As a result, I had a fair amount of food and water stockpiled. I felt pretty good about my ability to ride out multiple weeks of no power, water, or food.

I no longer live in California (thank god). My little part of the world is reasonably immune from natural disaster. We have plenty of water sources, don’t suffer from droughts, don’t have earthquakes, floods, tornadoes, or hurricanes. We don’t have the civil unrest plaguing so many cities right now. While we’re starting to see some homeless and a bit of increased drug traffic… snowy winters tend to keep that somewhat in check. Basically our main threat is the Yellowstone super volcano blowing. If that happens, we’re all screwed so it’s not really worth worrying about.

So as you can probably guess, my “prepping” has gotten somewhat lax. I still stock quite a bit of food and things that go bang to defend the aforementioned food. Water is not an issue. So the question is, should I be preparing more?

It’s been a long time since I gave this question any thought. But lately… the political, social, and geopolitical situation has me more nervous. We’re closer to WWIII kicking off than we’ve ever been. An EMP strike is a very real possibility. Side note, read “One Second After” if you want a realistic picture of what that would look like. Complete South Africa-like social collapse is certainly in the realm of possibility. I’d like to think my part of the world is isolated enough to avoid much of it, but you never know. China is nearing a collapse. Inflation, fuel prices and fertilizer shortages are skyrocketing the price of food. The price of cattle futures has doubled. Supply chain interruptions and food scarcity generally lead to bad things. A terrorist attack on our power grid? Yeah, that would be bad. So far this year, 160 people on the terrorist watchlist have been stopped on the border. How many snuck through?

The point is, I think it’s time to starting thinking about worst case scenarios. I filter “prepping” down to the following:

• Does my family have enough food, water, and the ability to cook it for several months? Can we function without electricity for that length of time? Do I have the ability to defend it from people trying to take it?

That’s it. No more, no less. Nobody’s bugging out or going on the long march. We’re not setting up radio communications or coordinating neighborhood assault/patrol teams. I’m not digging a fallout shelter. None of that’s realistic. If something really bad happened, could we hunker down for sixty days and survive? If it’s still really bad beyond that… well, it’s probably end of days and Mad Max time. Nobody but the gangs and most brutal will survive that. I’m not sure I’d want to be around at that point.

My personal weak points are cooking, heating, and light. The hard part is that the solutions to those problems are somewhat expensive. It’s hard to spend money on something you hope to never use. Depending on what happens in the world this next year – it may be time to pony up and prepare.

How about you? Could your family survive a couple months without power or government infrastructure? One month? A week? It’s worth thinking about.

Whether contemplating the societal breakdown scenarios, or going backpacking, fishing, or riding a motorcycle into the backcountry, there’s a saying I like:

“Expect to self-rescue. No one is coming.”

Keep that in mind when planning stuff and you’ll be better off than most of the population.