Tag: Russia

Government, Politics

You Have A Plan, Right?

Whooo boy, the dust-up in the Oval Office the other day sure stirred up the hornets nest. This issue is what’s known as a “shibboleth.” It’s a biblical term for a password used to distinguish one group from another, it’s evolved to mean a belief, issue, or even a phrase that serves as a clear marker of someone’s ideological tribe or moral stance. It’s a signal that cuts through the noise. Ask someone what they thought of the Zelenskyy, Trump, Vance verbal sparring and you’ll have a pretty good idea of their ideological leaning.

For all those folks once again posting “Glory to Ukraine” (the meaning of Slava Ukraini) on their social media, I have a question… now what? What’s the plan? How EXACTLY is this war going to end? Because I don’t see anything from the leftist warmongers or the EU that resembles any sort of path to end the killing. Nobody knows what the real figure is but 300,000 to 400,000 killed and wounded Ukrainian soldiers is a good rough guess. How long should that go on? It’s noble and all that you want to support the brave Ukrainians fighting against the evil Russians, but it’s now WWI style trench warfare with the added upgrade of remotely operated killer drones. As VP Vance said, the Ukrainian military is snatching people off the street and throwing them into this meat grinder. Do you really want this to continue indefinitely?

Absolutely nothing has changed since Sept of ’23 when I first said this. What’s the plan? How do we end this? I know that the left recoils at the mere thought that the horrible orange Nazi might be trying to do a good thing – but it’s pretty hard to deny that he genuinely seems to want to end the killing, stop the billions of dollars we’re spending, and prevent an escalation to WW3. How can you possibly be against that? I honestly want to understand the logic.

I get it – you think if we don’t stop them, the Russians are going to march across the frozen plains of Ukraine and invade the EU first chance they get. That’s all good and wonderful. Again, what is the plan? Put US/NATO troops on the ground? A NATO led no-fly zone in Ukraine? NATO strikes into Russia? Please explain in detail how that doesn’t escalate to Russia sending hypersonic missiles into EU cities? And what would our response to that be?

As much as the world would like Russia to suddenly decide this was a huge mistake and to pull all their troops back to the original border… it’s not going to happen. Sorry to disappoint you. Russia isn’t going anywhere. Choices are initiate a WW3 style offensive to push them out, or negotiate a deal that makes them happy. I know you don’t want to hear that, but it’s the truth.

If the EU really wants to push continued resistance and fighting, then you go girl. More power to you. We’re out. Oh, and just an FYI – if you poke the bear enough that he starts lobbing missiles at you, don’t look to us for help. We tried to warn you. And all that money you saved by not meeting your NATO security commitments… I guess you’re going to have to pay up now ’cause we’re not funding this nonsense any longer.

I’ll end where I started – if you’re in the ‘Slava Ukraini’ camp, what’s your plan? How do you end this without much of Europe becoming a smoldering crater? What death count are you comfortable with before this is done? Because I’ve seen nothing resembling a realistic path forward from anyone other than a certain orange man who can’t be named without TDS induced hysteria.

And that’s a hard pill to swallow…

Daily Life, Government, Politics

Who Has The Biscuit?

As I watched the President give an address from the Oval Office last night, I had a thought. Where is the biscuit? Hear me out… If you’re not aware, the president carries a laminated card with him at all times called the biscuit. The biscuit is a card that has all the authentication codes required for a nuclear response should we come under attack. As you can imagine, it’s kind of a big deal to ensure the president has that card with him always. There’s a military officer within physical reach of the president 24/7 who carries the nuclear “football”. The football is a briefcase containing laminated sheets of potential responses to an attack and the steps needed to carry it out. A menu of sorts. Clearly the most consequential action a president can take.

For the entirety of his presidency Biden’s detractors have made fun of, or at least made reference to, his age and lack of mental acuity. Captain Applesauce, Pudding Brain, the ice cream president, etc… Watching the Oval Office address last night it was abundantly clear that the man is in trouble from a health perspective. Mumbling, loud swallowing, difficulty reading the teleprompter, and a clear inability to modulate his voice. He drifts from low and hard to hear to loud with sudden verbal emphasis in odd places. There’s something wrong. Add to that his obvious moments of confusion when he’s out and about with every staff member holding their collective breath when he has to navigate stairs or cross a large open space – he’s an elderly adult with Parkinsons and some level of related dementia.

Whatever. All we have to do is coast for six more months and someone with at least some level of mental acuity will be in charge, right? Here’s my thought experiment. There’s been a number of campaign activities lately in which staff members had to hand the president cash and instruct him how/who to tip during the staged visit. He has to be constantly redirected as to where he’s supposed to be looking and interacting with. What makes you think he’s able to dress each morning and ensure he has the biscuit with him before he leaves the private residence? What would happen if, god forbid, an incident happened and he needed to produce the biscuit and make launch decisions in response to an attack?

It’s happened before. Buzz Patterson carried the nuclear football for Clinton and wrote about that time in his book. He shared that during a routine check, it came out that Clinton had “misplaced” the launch codes. Obviously it’s a big deal as new codes need to be created and distributed to every nuclear launch platform – planes, submarines, and land based launchers. They never found the card with the codes. Clinton had all his mental faculties, he just had his mind on… well other things.

I wonder how often they check to see that the president has the biscuit? The person carrying the nuclear football is literally feet away from the president at all times. He/she sees everything that happens and clearly is the single best person to make a judgement call about the presidents fitness for office. I think there’s an interesting question around this. As a military officer (there’s one from each branch of service that rotate carrying the football) what legal obligation do they have to say something about the fitness of their superior officer to continue to serve? Who and how would they report that to?

It’s one thing from a political perspective for presidential aids and staff to ignore or cover for a president in decline. It’s entirely another thing for a group of senior military officers to ignore what they see. I wonder, do they feel the president is fully capable of continuing in his role or are they being quiet for career security? It would obviously be career suicide to say something. In reading Buzz Pattersons book it’s clear that these officers take their duty very seriously. I can’t imagine what goes through their minds each day they interact with the president.

It’s all terribly frightening if you think about it. The president has six minutes from a confirmed nuclear intercontinental ballistic missile launch towards the US to make a decision. I guess we’ll rely on Dr. Jill to fill in for the next six months.

Anyway, have a happy Thursday!

Government, Politics

The Adults Are Back In Charge

The level of incompetence found in this administration is breathtaking. Or it’s calculated evil. I can’t decide which. Before you start shouting about the Illuminati partnering with the WEF to create a new global world order… it’s not. This is a case of snotty, condescending, east coast elites who all went to the best Ivy League schools and are sure they’re the smartest kids in the class. Suddenly they find themselves in power and discover that the cockamamie ideas they bantered about in their dorm rooms when they were making fun of Dan Quayle spelling potato, aren’t working in real life. But just like Disney, rather than admit they were wrong, they decide to double down. And that scares the hell out of me.

Yesterday Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed that Ukraine will join NATO. National security advisor Jake Sullivan said the same thing last July. So not only are we doing everything humanly possible to prolong the war in Ukraine, we’ve decided that our foreign policy objective is to cross the red line that Putin specifically declared as a path to war. Why?

Why do we continue to push a war that Ukraine has no chance of winning? None. Zero. If you disagree, please explain how Ukraine is going to defeat the entire Russian army – and not just defeat them, but destroy them to the point that Russia will pull back to the original border and Putin will simply apologize and promise to never do it again. Do you really, honestly, think that’s going to happen? Of course not and you know it. So what exactly then is our objective?

At some point, Putin will tire of the stalemate and choose to take decisive action. And then what do we do? This brinksmanship is beyond frightening because of how fast it could escalate to something really bad. Meanwhile, we’re going to vote to send Ukraine another 60 billion dollars (that we don’t have) next week. And, as confirmed by representative Massie, not a single congressperson nor the state department even has the slightest idea how many Ukrainians have been killed in this war. It’s disgusting.

The disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. The unintended consequences of the open border. Loss of the strategic petroleum reserve. Near total depletion of our military ammunition stockpiles. Nord Stream. China spy balloons. The fragile beginnings of Middle East peace are gone. Iran. Threatening Israel while Hamas still holds US hostages. Red Sea shipping shut down by the Houthis. The hits just keep on coming.

I’m not sure I can come up with anything that looks like foreign police success for this administration. It’s pretty bad when your track record is literally zero after almost four years. At this point, I think you could randomly pick people out of the phone book and they’d do a better job. This administration, and the “deep state” for that matter, has become the living embodiment of the Peter Principle – “people in a hierarchy tend to rise to a level of respective incompetence”. We’re living with a governmental bureaucracy ushered in by the Obama administration. Flotillas of idealistic “hope and change” Ivy League college kids who went straight from school to the Washington machine without any real world experience. Now years later, they’ve risen to the top and are leading us to disaster. At this point I think I’d prefer the evil Klaus Schwab Illuminati scenario – at least it’s explainable.

As Obama famously said, “elections have consequences”. He was more right than he could have imagined. We need to take the sharp objects away from the “adults in charge” soon, before things go really bad.

Cool, Daily Life

Lists And Things

Too many random thoughts buzzing around in my head this morning to think coherently. We shall purge them in an attempt to clear the mechanism.

  • I’m thinking of taking up a musical instrument. Guitar was my first thought (I very briefly played as a kid), and then I saw this clip. Stop what you’re doing and take a listen. Seriously. I am now contemplating the harmonica. Is there an electronic version of the harmonica that I can hear via headphones? I fear that Mrs Troutdog would divorce me if she had to listen to hours of amateur harmonica every day.
  • I was able to resist a donut (doughnut?) last night. It was an apple fritter, which is hands down my favorite deep fried treat. That level of discipline is hard to describe. Probably close to what it takes to get into Navy SEAL selection. Full disclosure, I did have an apple fritter the previous night. But in my defense, that was the first one in at least a year.
  • It doesn’t happen that often, but I’m back in a weird sleep cycle. I fall asleep in about 30 seconds, always have. But recently I’m waking up at 3-4am every day, regardless of what time I go to bed. Done, no chance of falling back asleep. Leaves me barely able to keep my eyes open in the afternoon. Started magnesium bisglycinate last night to see if it would help. Dr Huberman suggests magnesium threonate as it crosses the blood-brain barrier easier. May try that next.
  • Abdominal surgery went well, recovery is going ok (I think). Went for an easy bike ride the other day and probably overdid it. Don’t think I’m ready for ski season yet.
  • Speaking of ski season – we don’t have one. As in, no snow. And nothing on the horizon. Yay El Niño. Probably for the best. If we had great snow I’m not sure I’d be able to resist.
  • I caught myself getting sucked into the X/twitter morass this morning. Someone I followed for a while has been posting nonstop anti-Israel hate since Oct 7. Like at least 10 posts a day. I actually wanted to see what his latest post was this morning – specifically so I could be angry. It was a weird feeling realizing that I wanted to be angry at this guy. It’s probably a feeling that if he just reads my one brilliant comment, he’ll see I’m right and change his mind. I suspect that feeling describes 70% of X/twitter commenters. I took a deep breath and unfollowed. No need to encourage that level of negativity in my life.
  • Following up on my fashion post the other day, I am ordering a new pair of boots today. No it won’t fix the hot fashion mess that currently describes me, but it’s a start. At least it’s better than the $20 cheap Amazon shoes I wear most of the time (when I’m not wearing Crocs or flip flops). Fun side note, once upon a time in the ’90’s I had a trench coat. It was actually kind of a pain because it was so big, but I thought I looked good (narrator: he in fact, looked like a dork).
  • I learned from my nephews that there is such a thing as a professional Esports league. As in, professional gamers. AND you can get a collegiate gaming scholarship. We are finished as a society.
  • The Ukraine comedian/mafia boss is back in the US today looking for more money. Can anyone provide a plausible scenario in which Ukraine defeats the Russian army, pushes them back to the original border, and Russia just simply gives up? Anyone? Anyone? Please tell me why we need to borrow more money to give to a lost cause? Is it just to see another couple hundred thousand people die?
  • The holidays are my absolute least favorite time of the year. Always been that way. I do my best to not be a grinch, but sometimes I can’t help it. I am also not drinking right now to help the fashion/weight loss scenario. Please send prayers.
  • I’m reading a number of books right now. The Strange Death of Europe: Immigration, Identity, Islam and The Storm Before the Storm: The Beginning of the End of the Roman Republic. Recommend both. They’ve spawned a huge jumble of thoughts that I want to capture, but have been unable to. It’s like I have a sense of what I want to say, but it’s just out of reach and slightly foggy. I guess I’ll just have to keep contemplating. I’m always impressed by people who can articulate complex ideas. We clearly don’t teach that any longer. We’ve moved into the University of Tik Tok phase of the empire.
  • We started watching the older series, Vikings. A few thoughts… A) I wonder if I could sport the viking haircut at my age. B) I cannot sport that haircut at this age or any previous age. C) What a brutal time to have been alive. D) Fascinating that the Romans in England were a more advanced society than the feudal/tribal times that followed them. Anyway, a good series. No spoilers please.

Ok, that’s enough purging. Time to move on to something more productive. Like arguing with people on X.

Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

Lesser Of Two Evils

I get it. Everyone thinks Russia is evil. Putin is a monster that launched a war that has resulted in massive loss of life. I think the reasons he did it are complicated and will be debated for years, but implementing a blitzkrieg march straight through to the Netherlands is not one of the reasons. You’re quite naïve if you think that was the ultimate goal. You can debate all you want about good vs. evil, ulterior motives, blah, blah, blah… What’s important is – here we are. Now what?

How does this play out? The war hawks claim we’ll support Ukraine to the end. So what does that look like? Russia is not going to suddenly say sorry and pull back to pre-war borders. Therefore, the only way to force Russia back East is to inflict the complete and total annihilation of the Russian military.

Given that, I have an honest question:

Can anyone give a plausible scenario in which that happens? I’m honestly interested in hearing from someone who believes that’s possible.

Ukrainian losses are in the ~300,000 range, with another 100,000 or so wounded. Kill ratios are 8-15:1 depending on the region. Russia has decimated Ukrainian equipment and artillery. Ukraine has run out of fighting age males. They are snatching people off the streets and conscripting them into the military. They’re now taking women and old men. They’re threatening anyone who fled the country with arrest and forfeiture of their passport/citizenship if they don’t come back to fight.

Russia currently has about 750,000 men in theater, with plans to ramp up to 1.2 million. They have complete air superiority. They have very sophisticated aerial/drone and artillery targeting capability. They’ve ramped up their wartime production of shells, missiles, and ammo to the point they can fire many hundreds per day without fear of running out. They’ve built three rings of massive concrete defensive positions. There are hundreds of thousands of mines to cross before you even get to their defensive lines.

Please tell me how Ukraine defeats that?

The answer is they can’t. It would take the entirety of the US military plus NATO forces to attempt to defeat them. That would be literal world war three. The problem with that scenario is that Russia will not go quietly. I guarantee they’ll use tactical nuclear strikes along the western border of Ukraine before they allow NATO forces to advance further towards Russia. And we can all guess where that would lead.

So now what? Please, someone give me a scenario in which this plays out different if we keep going down our current path.

At this point it doesn’t matter any more if you think what Russia did was right or wrong. It has to stop, and soon. The longer this goes the closer we get to the nightmare scenario. I see our administration and virtually the entire congress gleefully speeding down this path with zero plausible ideas on how it ends.

I don’t know how we convince our leaders that what they’re doing is madness. They don’t listen to the citizenry and the press is in lockstep with these fools. How do we stop this?

I get it. Russia bad, Ukraine good. I don’t like what happened any more than the next guy, but I’m starting to think that if you have any interest in visiting Europe you may want to do it soon. It may be a smoldering crater before too long.

Government

I Don’t Understand

I am not a student of history, geopolitics, or economics. I confess that I have about a 7th grade grasp of world events most of the time. Therefore, I am being sincere when I say that I need someone to explain something to me like I was a child. Speak slowly and in simple language. No platitudes, vague historical references, or moral right vs. wrong inferences. I’m looking for a clear, fact-based argument. Ready?

Why is it in the United States strategic interest to fully fund, arm, and (eventually) defend Ukraine?

What I find when I search on this subject is mostly vague arm waving and teeth gnashing about “we can’t let naked aggression like this go unchecked”, or “if we don’t stop Russia here and push them back, they’ll soon be rolling into Poland”. There’s plenty of moral justifications thrown out – “we can’t stand by and let innocent civilians be slaughtered”, or the WWII reference of “we stood by when Germany began occupying other countries, we can’t let that happen again”. All of those things may be true. But none of them are an argument for why the US needs to be the one to solve it.

This is not a defense of Russia’s actions. For a variety of reasons, Russia made the strategic choice to invade another country. War is awful and never leads to a good outcome for anyone involved. Period. You can hate Russia all you want for their decision… but it doesn’t change the fact that they did it. So, now what?

The US has committed upwards of $60 billion dollars, with future pledges bringing the total to over $100 billion. We’ve depleted our own stockpiles of military hardware so we can send it to Ukraine. We have troops on the ground in-country, we’re providing training, intelligence, targeting, and continue to push the envelope with more and more advanced military technology. We seem to be doing everything possible to poke the Russian bear and provoke an escalation. Why? Why is all this in our interest?

So back to my child-like questions:

  • Ukraine is not a NATO member, nor has it been a historical ally. Why does the US need to be the one to defend them?
  • Russia has not attacked a fellow NATO member, so you can’t claim we’re fulfilling our article 5 duties. Why are we there?
  • If the European countries are feeling threatened… shouldn’t that be primarily a European problem to solve?
  • Given that any future threat is to Europe, shouldn’t the vast majority of aid be coming from European countries?
  • Given that we’re $32+ trillion in debt and have a whole host of issues of our own to solve, we do we need to be sending $100 billion to Ukraine?
  • We just ended (badly) a 20-year war that cost us $5+ trillion. Why do we need to engage in another war?
  • And finally… how is it in our strategic interests to provoke Russia to the brink of a nuclear exchange?

Here’s something nobody wants to talk about. Without US support, Russia would have pretty quickly taken a large portion of Ukrainian territory. Whether that is good or bad is subject for another discussion. Regardless, we enabled Ukraine to push back sufficiently enough that this war will now go on for a very long time. No matter who wins, the end outcome will be that Ukraine will be left a smoking heap of ash. There will be nothing left. Its infrastructure will be completely destroyed. Its agricultural, drilling, and mining exports are already gone. As we approach spring, Russia will accelerate its targeting of all power infrastructure, water, sewer, and industrial capacity. They will turn Ukraine into a wasteland and force a mass exodus of refugees. Whatever is left of the population will be facing actual famine. That’s reality.

Do you really think Russia is suddenly going to say, “whoops, my bad. Sorry about that”. Is Russia going to decide tomorrow to just pull back with its tail between its legs? Doubtful. The US has done everything possible to accelerate and prolong this war. Now what? When Russia sends 300,000 troops over the border this summer, what are we going to do? Ukraine is rapidly running out of fighting age males to throw at the problem. This is why they need more and more advanced battlefield tools – they can no longer win with just infantry. Are US ground troops and air cover next?

If Russia loses a couple hundred thousand troops by next fall, don’t you think battlefield nukes are a realistic option for them? Then what do we do?

None of this makes sense to me. I really need someone to explain to me in simple terms, why it is in the United States strategic interest to own this mess?

P.S. The actual answer to all of this of course, is the military industrial complex. We want to sell weapons. That’s it. It’s that simple. Sorry.

Politics

We Have A Bear

There’s a bear that frequently circulates our neighborhood. Several actually. As the berries in the higher elevations disappear and the cold winter months loom, the bears roam in search of picnic baskets and garbage cans. I don’t like keeping my garbage can in the garage for odorous reasons. So, the bears and I play a game. I catch the bears on the security camera dragging my can down the driveway and I resolve to keep the can in the garage. After a while I don’t see any sign of the bear and I start leaving the can outside again. Mr. bear reappears, and the cycle repeats.

It’s usually a harmless game, with no casualties other than the bear-proof garbage can, which is decidedly not bear-proof. But every once in a while, one of the bears gets habitually aggressive and Fish and Game ends up euthanizing it. It’s sad because it wasn’t the bears fault. It’s my fault. And my neighbors. It would be easy to be mad at the bear and blame him for scattering garbage down my driveway. To be scared for kids and pets with an apex predator roaming the property in the dark. To demand that the authorities do something for the safety of the neighborhood. But we pushed the bear to be… well, a bear. We created a scenario where the bear had no choice – foraging in the woods or a grocery store of easy access scraps. He’ll go for easy every time.

It’s a parable for where we are today. The United States, virtually single-handedly, drove Russia into action. We’ve done everything possible to provoke the current conflict. And now, we’re at war. Oh, they didn’t tell you? We are in a full-scale proxy war with Russia. One that escalates every day. Biden’s energy secretary said the quiet part out loud this week: “releasing 15 million more barrels from the strategic oil reserves is required for the current “wartime footing.” Hmm. The national security council spokesman declared unlimited support for Ukraine for as long as it takes.

Funny, I don’t remember voting for war with Russia. The defense industry certainly voted for it – and clearly their vote counts more. All well and good, except this thing is rapidly spiraling out of control. NATO expansion is one of the big drivers of Putin’s actions. So, what do we do? Vote to expand NATO further. We directly, or via proxy, blow up Russia’s gas pipeline. Every month we further ramp up the billions of dollars of weapons we supply Ukraine. We have direct military assets on the ground advising Ukraine (you’re naive if you don’t think so). Daily the administration blames Russia for everything from high gas prices to climate change. We flat out refuse to negotiate with Russia. Not only have we left the garbage can out, but we’ve also left the lid open and scattered food scraps all around it.

And now with fiscal disaster and a new (to be determined) prime minister, the UK may start getting squeamish about sending more aid to Ukraine. And the US is looking at a red wave in November that might not be so excited to keep the Ukrainian money faucet fully open. This administration is so eager to continue stoking the war fires… do you really think some sort of false flag operation is out of the question? Some event that will justify the continued war and the need to pump additional billions into the defense industry coffers? We’ve certainly done it before. I think the next month will be an extraordinarily dangerous time period.

I know, I know. Tinfoil hat conspiracy theory. But if it’s even remotely true… we’re provoking a dangerous bear. We’re creating a scenario where he’ll have to respond. And this bear has nuclear weapons. Lots and lots of ’em. And don’t forget, there’s a Chinese bear looming out there as well. Waiting. Watching. And we happily keep poking that bear as well.

The caviler nature of this administration, and the bulk of the national press, is frightening. I honestly think we are at the very precipice of the next world war. I don’t think it would take much to spark it off right now. And yet domestically, we spend our time arguing if drag queen stripper shows are appropriate for six year olds and if highway bridges are racist.

It’s long overdue we had some serious people in charge. It was all fun and games mocking the bad orange man for mean tweets, but now we need something more than an old dementia patient eating ice cream, and pretending to be in charge (and no, it’s not the orange man again). Weekend At Bernie’s at least had lighthearted hijinks as a plot. I’m not sure the current crop of puppeteers behind the scenes realizes (or care) what a cornered bear is capable of.

Hard times create strong men
Strong men create good times
Good times create weak men
Weak men create hard times

Government, Politics

Selective Outrage

I apologize. I don’t check my email that often, so I must have missed the memo about Ukraine being one of our oldest and most trusted allies. I confess that a month or so ago I couldn’t have found Ukraine on the map. Suddenly it’s somehow now in our national interest to pour (more) billions of dollars into this country and potentially risk another world war in Europe. I’m sure they’re lovely people (aside from that pesky actual Nazi problem they have). And it’s absolutely heart wrenching to see the apparent indiscriminate bombing and killing of civilians. War is awful. Period. Full stop.

But guess what campers, this isn’t the only active war currently going on. Let’s pick one like, hmmm, the Congo. The current hostilities in the Democratic Republic of Congo have produced 4.5 million internally displaced persons, 800,000 refugees in other countries, and an estimated death toll of at least three million. Let me repeat that. THREE MILLION DEATHS. This is a country rich in natural resources, which we need. Our greatest real threat, China, is pulling out all stops to control those resources. And the United States does… [crickets chirping].

My point is that it’s odd what conflicts and crisis of the moment reach our attention span. Why is Ukraine any more or less important than the DRC? I don’t pretend to understand either conflict, and neither should you. I do not trust the narrative we’re being fed. Ukraine is a massively corrupt country full of coups, separatists factions, and a puppet regime installed by the United States. The US has been using Ukraine as a stick to keep poking Russia for years. Well… now you’ve woken up the bear. Maybe that’s what we wanted all along? I have no idea and I doubt you do either.

You should ask yourself some questions. Number one, why is paying for and solving this crisis a problem the US needs to manage? This is primarily a European issue. They’re the ones who are dependent on Russian energy supplies. The EU countries have massive GDP’s, economies, and have huge numbers of weapons, planes, and all types of fancy missiles and missile defense stuff. Our European allies need to be front and center in managing and paying for this crisis. If and when they need our help, we can be there. But the US does not need to be the worlds pocketbook and policeman. If you disagree, please explain why we need to take the lead in solving this?

Similar to the first question, why should the US taxpayers fund this war? You do realize we’re now thirty trillion dollars in debt, right? Our economy is poised to crater. There are literally no more checks in the checkbook. Every dollar we give to Ukraine and every weapon system we hand them, was first money we borrowed from China. WE DO NOT HAVE the 14 billion we just authorized to give to Ukraine. We have to borrow that money. Record setting inflation, gas prices, crumbling infrastructure, supply chain issues, and a 150,000 people a month streaming across our border. We have some issues. Please explain why spending billions to give to Ukraine is more important than any of those things? The best that I can tell, the EU has promised a whopping $450 million. Individually, EU countries are giving a smattering of weapons and other goods. If this was such a momentous issue on European soil, wouldn’t you think they’d have a bit more skin in the game? But why should they when they know we’ll pay for it.

As a side note, we give billions to the UN every year. Where are they? What actual purpose do they serve other than to write sternly worded letters? Perhaps we should divert our UN payments to Ukraine.

There are no good answers to any of this. This morning, Ukraine’s president Zelensky gave an impassioned speech to our congress. He invoked the memories of Pearl Harbor and 9/11. He received a standing ovation. I suspect out of fear of appearing to do nothing, our brave representatives will pour more money and aid to Ukraine, further provoking the conflict and increasing the potential of escalation. Do you really think Putin is going to say, “whoops, my bad. I’ll pull out.”? By further arming Ukraine, we’re forcing Putin to take more extreme measures. I fear we’re one mistake or misunderstanding away from another world conflict. Is that really what you want?

Look, I realize I’m sounding all Neville Chamberlain-ish this morning. But the US is not the superpower we once were. We’re broke, and that’s hard to admit. It’s time for US to step aside and let others shoulder the burden for a while. We shouldn’t let social media shame us into something that could rapidly get far worse than we can possibly imagine.

It’s hard to see human suffering. But I doubt any of you have been outraged at the war in the DRC. Why? Admit it, you couldn’t have found Ukraine on a map a month ago. Me either. And you certainly weren’t outraged at (or even know about) the 14,000 killed and 1.5 million people displaced in the Donbass region of Ukraine in 2014. There’s a lot of human suffering going on in the world at any given time and it’s awful to see. But just because CNN is breathlessly promoting this conflict 24×7 doesn’t mean we have to spring into action. It’s time for cooler heads to prevail and for us to sit this one out.

We have a massive economic war looming on the horizon with China. A war that will alter your standard of living. We may very well be wishing we had some of those billions we pissed away, trying to be the good guy, back.

Confirmation bias

Why Is Everything So Complicated?

We are the generation of the soundbite. The Tweet. The meme. We consume our information in tiny little pieces. And most of the time, that’s probably just fine. I don’t need to have a deep understanding of the cattle futures market to decide if I can afford the rib-eye this week or only cube steak. The price is the price and I either have the quan or I don’t.

But every once in a while, big events happen that raise questions. Politicians and pundits jump on these events and start spewing one-liners and soundbites that reinforce their echo chambers. Pretty soon we’re in a full-scale soundbite and meme war that leaves everyone confused and angry. What’s the truth?

I was thinking about this as I read snarky Twitter comments about energy independence, buying Russian oil, and gas prices. Everyone has an answer. Because I’m a dork, I decided to do some light reading on the energy sector and politics. Whew – there is no such thing as “light reading” about this subject! It is a deep, deep rabbit hole. It is hard to describe how many moving parts and global players there are in the energy world.

There are a whole variety of types of crude oil, all coming from different places in the world, all used for different things. Much of the recent increases in our purchase of Russian crude are due to fallout from previous sanctions on other countries like Venezuela, hurricanes in the gulf, and African countries not being able to ramp up production after Covid. We import foreign crude to the East and West coast because we lack the domestic infrastructure to transport our own oil. It’s actually cheaper to purchase non-US crude, than it is to send US crude to the East and West coast from the Midwest or gulf. We often purchase Russian (and other) crude because it has a higher sulfur content than US crude, which is needed for some specific refining processes. The worldwide crude oil market is a very interdependent and complex system. Even when we declared we were “energy independent”, that is a fuzzy interpretation with many moving parts that changed from month to month. We’d offset US products produced from crude and sold, against crude imports and for some quarters and depending upon what the meaning of “is”, is, we’d declare we had greater net exports vs. imports.

This led me to the issue of the current administration shutting down oil and gas leases. Come on, man – drill baby, drill! Well, they did attempt to put a moratorium on new leases in some areas. The courts shut that down. And currently… the Biden administration has outpaced the Trump administration in issuing drilling permits on public lands. Wait, wut? For example, just last fall the Biden admin completed the largest oil and gas lease in US history – 80 million acres in the Gulf of Mexico. Sigh, I’m so confused.

What’s my point? I don’t care what the Fox, CNN, or Twitter pundit says… virtually every issue you’d like to discuss is infinitely more complex than you think it is. Nothing is black and white, yes or no. It takes years for industry and policy experts to develop a real understanding of their domain. I did a tiny bit of reading this morning beyond Twitter, and quickly realized I know absolutely zero about the energy sector. It has tentacles in transportation, logistics, commodity markets, politics, money supply, production, jobs, and on and on. I think it would take at least a semester equivalent class to have at least a beginners grasp on the entirety of the market. And I think that holds true for most things in life. Geopolitics, military strategy, history, everything…

All of which is to reinforce my standard saying… Question everything. Be a Contrarian. It’s ok to endorse the Left or Right’s approach to the world. Just don’t do it blindly. They’re both equal manipulators of the narrative. And under the surface, things are often more complex than you realize.

The truth is rarely pure and never simple

Oscar Wilde
Government, Politics

Shuffle The Deck

Enjoying the clown show? It might almost be funny to sit back and watch this administration flail about if the consequences weren’t so dire. I do not underestimate the ability of these clowns to blunder us into an actual, serious armed conflict involving U.S. forces. Now don’t think I’m just blaming the democrats for where we’re at. It’s taken decades of incompetence, grift, and arrogance from both parties to get to this point. And along the way, we’ve managed to create a fourth branch of government that is unelected, unsupervised, and unchecked – the Federal Bureaucracy. a.k.a. the deep state.

As the old saying goes, while Putin and Xi are playing 3D chess, we’re playing checkers. Well, to be fair this administration is playing tic-tac-toe. Russia and China plan the long game. We plan for the latest news cycle. The EU worshiped at the Church of Climate Change. They now need Russia’s oil and gas. Germany is fully in bed with Russia. You’ll notice that Europe is doing virtually nothing about all this. Putin correctly judged that our economy is in trouble and we’re too busy arguing over pronouns and which bridges are the most racist. In all likelihood the sanctions will end up hurting us more than Russia. We’ll do nothing (hopefully), and he knew it. Game, set, match. Russia will now have a heavily defended buffer zone against NATO. Meanwhile, the US spent billions trying to set up yet another puppet state in the name of “democracy” that failed. Sound familiar? It’s like Lucy pulling the football away from Charlie Brown. How come we never learn? Since WWII, we have failed at every single foreign policy intervention we’ve attempted. All at the cost of trillions and thousands upon thousands of lives. And yet we continue to listen to the same foreign policy “experts”.

And now we’re at the brink of a serious inflection point. I’m honestly surprised that China hasn’t moved on Taiwan yet. That’s the big test. What would we do? Are we going to get into a shooting war with China? I’m pretty sure that won’t go well. I’m sorry if I sound skeptical, but the same people who planned the Afghan withdraw, fired SOF folks for refusing the jab, and seem more worried about white rage and DEI in the military, are still in charge. It’s ok though, just like with every conflict, the UN will write a strongly worded letter.

So, what are we to do? Create a new, third party like Andrew Yang thinks? Term limits? I think term limits absolutely needs to be a part of any change. The corruption and self-interest in Washington (and state politics) is endemic. These people are dug in like ticks on a hound. If we have any hope of staving off our total demise, we need to start getting rid of the political establishment. But how do you get someone to vote for something that’s not in their self-interest?

It’s time to shuffle the deck. How? VOTE THEM OUT. Who? ALL OF THEM. Every single one of them. Both parties. Regardless of party, choose someone new. Do not re-elect the same clown. Everyone gets primaried. Even if the same clown gets re-elected, make them fight for it. Demand accountability. And next election cycle – do it again. We need to keep shuffling the deck until we get the hand we want.

Is that realistic? Nope. Is it going to happen? Nope. As negative as that sounds, I do see a tiny sliver of hope. There is a sense of frustration in the country. People are getting tired of the authoritarians. They’re pushing back against CRT and mask mandates, and censorship. At the moment, it looks like the next election cycle will be a bloodbath for the left. Will the right do something with it, or revert to politics as usual? If the new congress starts behaving like representatives of the people, AND, if we elect an actual leader (no, not Trump) with the next presidential cycle… there’s a small chance we can start to right the ship.

I give it a 10% chance. I fear that it’s probably already too late. History shows that once you start that downslide, it’s pretty hard to fight momentum. Realistically it’s not an issue for my generation – this will be for the next generation to live with. Unfortunately, this new generation aren’t much for learning from history. Because, like, you know, history is all racist or something.

It is difficult to get a man to understand something when his salary depends on his not understanding it.

 Upton Sinclair