Tag: Opinion

Confirmation bias

Have You Changed Your Mind?

Honest question. Have you changed your mind about something? I wonder what percentage of the population has actually changed their mind about an issue due to something they read or heard? I don’t mean silly little things like, I used to hate blueberry pop tarts but now realize they’re the bomb… but big important things. Religion, political issues, social issues, and other big ticket world events. I wonder how common that is?

If you’re not familiar with him, author Scott Adams has a quote from one of his books – “One screen, two movies”. We all see the same event, yet what our brain shows us is entirely dependent upon our cognitive bias. We want to see a world that fits our narrative and our brains will do everything possible to make that happen. Add the human desire for conformity and you get masses of people who suddenly start seeing the same movie.

But how common is it to change which movie someone is seeing? As you scroll through Twitter/X watching all the screeching monkeys flinging poo at each other, have you ever been swayed by someone’s 120 character tweet? Seen a meme that made you go hmmm? I would have said Facebook, but that platform’s been turned into a weird Instagram Reels for grandmas. How about blogs, Substack, or columnists on RealClearPolitics? Have you ever read something and thought that maybe you had it all wrong?

I was going to write something about the Middle East situation and then started thinking, what’s the point? I have strong opinions – am I ever going to convince someone to abandon their thinking about the conflict? Doubtful. Therefore I’m simply writing for the handful of people who already agree with me. What’s the fun in that?

It’s kinda funny if you think about it. There’s an entire industry out there of columnists and bloggers who make a living by writing for the 90% who already agree with them and then getting further traffic from people who read them solely to get angry because they already know they disagree. It’s an odd scenario.

Have I changed my opinions on things? Sure, but I think it was more due to age and lived experience than anything I read or heard. I do like to think I do a good job of listening and reading things that I probably don’t agree with. While it doesn’t really change my mind, I think it helps take the edge off of my entrenched positions on things. I think that’s important.

So at the end of the day in this weird media environment we live in, it’s important to at least recognize that you have cognitive bias when you interpret what you see. It doesn’t mean you’ll change your mind, but it may allow the idea that what you thought doesn’t necessarily have to be black and white. And that, my friends, is how you start down the road to being a Contrarian.

Now if you’ll excuse me, I’m going to go shout at Twitter/X for a few hours. Because I’m right and you’re wrong and if you’ll just look at the meme I created – you’ll change your mind.

Politics

Polar Opposites

I ran into some commentary yesterday that I thought was interesting. Two people I follow and whose opinions I respect. For the first time (that I noticed) their opinion of the situation in Ukraine were completely opposite.

First up is Peter Zeihan. He’s a geopolitical analyst who always seems to have good inside sources and provides comprehensive, behind the scenes analysis of world events. He put out a couple of videos the other day about events in Ukraine. Russia launched a handful of hypersonic missiles at Kiev. Zeihan believes Ukraine shot down some/all of them and this represents a key moment in Ukrainian air defense against Russia.

He also thinks that Russia’s campaign is severely faltering due to a lack of troops and incompetent leadership. The fighting around Bakhmut have devastated Russian troop numbers and depleted ammo and supplies. Ukraine’s spring offensive is about to start, and they will probably conduct several feints to draw the limited Russian troops away from whatever the Ukrainian intended targets are. He seems to be fairly bullish on Ukraine’s chances at the moment, given the material support they’re getting from the US/NATO.

Next is Col Douglas Macgregor. He’s a retired US Army colonel who is a consultant and television commentator. He has consistently provided insight that indicates Ukraine is losing badly. He talks frequently about the devastating loss of Ukrainian troops and that they have run out of enough men to backfill the losses. He has shown video of fighting age males being forcibly abducted and sent to the front. He comments frequently about Ukraine’s battle losses that the mainstream media never seem to cover.

On the subject of the missiles, he said that no country currently has the technology to shoot down a hypersonic missile. He thinks the Russian targeting intelligence is quite good and that they’ve been very successful destroying any new equipment/ammo the west and NATO is sending as fast as it’s staged in-country. He scoffed at mainstream media for accepting Ukraine’s claims that they shot down most of the missiles.

So, what am I supposed to think? Two people whose commentary and analysis has seemed to be pretty spot-on. Now they have polar opposite views. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. When it’s all said and done, who had the better geopolitical analysis? I’m getting my popcorn ready for this one.

Daily Life, Government, Politics

Are You Better Off?

I’ve noticed an interesting phenomenon on Facebook. I had to put up with about five plus years of non-stop wailing and gnashing of teeth when the bad orange man was running, in office, and immediately post-election (INSURRECTION!). Virtually every day one of the liberal/democratic folks on my feed would post something about how horrible Trump was and/or how ashamed of the country they were. Day after day. Every word he uttered or tweeted was mocked and pointed to as an example of disaster and impending doom. If you engaged with or disagreed with these folks, you were quickly shouted down as a MAGA loving, xenophobic, right-wing extremist.

But the last year… radio silence. Crickets chirping. Oh, there were a few things posted after the Roe decision and the start of the Ukraine war but for the most part very little political content shows up. Why is that? Inflation hit 9.1% today (probably more like 12%-15% realistically). Not a single mention of it from the left leaning side of my feed. Isn’t that curious? Did the entire left suddenly decide they were no longer interested in politics?

Let me ask an honest question. If you trend more towards the left side of the spectrum, can you point to something the current administration has done that you’d consider a success? What have they done that’s gone well? Are you better off now than you were during the previous administration?

I’m doing my best to be objective, but I can’t point to one thing the administration has done that has moved the country in a better direction. Not one. Literally every single thing that affects the average person in this country has gotten worse. The economy, prices, supply chain, the border… it’s all bad. And don’t get me started on global/foreign engagements. This administration is, to be blunt, a clusterfuck of epic proportions.

Mrs. Troutdog actually asked the other day if we should stock up on food due to the looming food shortages. It now costs me $130 bucks to fill up my truck. Replacement parts for the motorcycle and some construction materials either can’t be found or are on indefinite backorder. The market and our retirement account have taken a hit that will take years to crawl back from. Is this really Build Back Better?

My point is not to claim the right side of the isle is better. 90% of them are as useless as tits on a bull. The bulk of the left and right are a giant uni-party. While I liked many of the things the bad orange man “said”, he was a horrible judge of character whose massive ego led him to spending most of his time in petty twitter spats rather than following through with campaign promises (see, border wall). When the R’s take back congress, I have little faith anything of substance will change. More arranging deck chairs on the Titanic.

So, the point… if you were one of the left-leaning folks shit posting bad orange man memes as fast as you could go, why the silence now? Why aren’t you publicly praising the daily actions of the President? Is it that you’re now embarrassed by your political choice? There must be something you can point to and say, “whew, thank God Biden is President”. Isn’t there?

Maybe, just maybe, the takeaway from this period will be a realization that blind partisanship is stupid. Following your party like a lemming leads to… well, where we are today. A barely functioning grandpa propped up and controlled by unknown and unseen forces behind the curtains. But hey, no mean tweets right?

Now, more than ever, it’s time to join the church of Contrarianism. Become a Contrarian. Question everything. Dump your party loyalties. Trust me, they don’t care about you. It’s a hard thing to really examine your opinions, do some actual research, and admit you’ve been duped. It’s a little painful, but just ripping off the Band-Aid is really the best medicine.

Because if we don’t become an army of Contrarians soon… I fear the lemmings are going to reach the edge of the cliff sooner rather than later.