Tag: leadership

Government, Politics, woke

Ahead Of The Curve

California is in trouble. The fires are simply awful. At this point it will take a generation to rebuild. I doubt it will happen, but if CA was ever to flip red now is the time. Why? Finally the lack of competence has been exposed in a way that can’t be brushed under the rug. Homelessness, crime, poor roads – all things that can be obfuscated with a bunch of McKinsey consultant gobbldey goop word salad in a press release issued by a newly graduated twenty something marketing student. But multiple fires that wipe out entire city areas? Nope, you’re not going to be able to blame an act of god like a tornado or hurricane for this one. How this was handled is a direct result of incompetent leadership.

Everyone knows what competence looks like. It doesn’t matter if it’s a politician, a department manager at your company, or a tradesperson. Competent people give off an aura. Deep down you just know who’s got it and who doesn’t. The scary scenario is when incompetent people rise to a position of power and start thinking their shit don’t stink because people are forced to defer to their position in the hierarchy.

There’s a phrase we use in nursing, “staying ahead of the curve”. It means anticipating worst case scenarios and proactively managing them. Recognizing that a patient is at risk of sepsis so you do extra vitals checks to catch a sudden rise in heart rate or a temp increase. Understanding that a patient fresh out of surgery is prone to urinary retention so you do frequent bladder scans. Staying ahead of the curve means aggressively managing your patients with the highest risks and not letting the rest of your 3,000 daily tasks distract you.

It’s a little inside baseball, but new nurses are scary. You’re overwhelmed and simply reacting to whatever is thrown in front of you minute by minute. It’s easy to get sucked in to spending large amounts of time with the patient who frequently, loudly, complains about everything. Or the little old lady who constantly tries to get out of bed, setting off the bed alarm. And you’re behind in all your medication administrations because you got a new admit from surgery. Meanwhile, you ignore the quiet old man who’s rapidly descending into SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome). He’s easy and never complains. The CNA charted that he’s running a temperature but you haven’t had time to look at the charts for a while. He’s probably going to code in the next few hours because you got behind the curve and didn’t recognize what was happening. It takes a new nurse at least a year before they stop being reactive and start seeing a glimpse of the curve.

“Getting behind the curve” is exactly what happened in LA (and California as a whole). Politicians and leaders who don’t recognize that they’re incompetent. Busy reacting to whatever the media issue of the day is. Focused on DEI and intra-party squabbles and power positioning. Enjoying taxpayer paid trips to Ghana. Nonstop whining about needing more money to fight climate change. So when the inevitable happened, they were caught flatfooted and the infrastructure collapsed.

A perfect example of staying ahead of the curve is the state of Florida. You may not like his politics, but it’s hard to deny that Gov DeSantis is extremely capable. Every hurricane you see the state prepositioning thousands of linemen, getting emergency services set up, and being very proactive about communication. It’s very clear who’s in charge and running the state.

California? Nobody’s in charge. Everyone points fingers and deflects blame. Nothing gets done. The Biden administration is exactly the same. Name one person in the cabinet who you’d confidently say is competent. Blinken? Buttigieg? Harris? Whew, we dodged a bullet with that one. She would have been the Presidential version of the LA mayor. I shudder to think what would have happened to the country had she been elected.

I don’t mean this to be a partisan rant. It’s a rant about incompetence. I want leaders who stay ahead of the curve. I don’t care what party you’re from. I want the trains to run on time, the roads to be maintained, the police and fire departments to be well run, an atmosphere of economic growth and stability, and I want my taxes to be well spent. Do those things well and I won’t care if there’s an R or a D after your name.

To the citizens of my former state of California – I hope you now see the consequences of incompetent leadership. It’s easy to celebrate that you have the first LGBTQ+ leader of the fire department. Or that you’re banning diesel trucks because you care about climate change. Symbolism over substance is easy.

Until you get too far behind the curve. Then things get real in a hurry. And FYI, you’re still behind the curve. It’s time to get ahead before things go really bad.

Government, Politics

What Comes Next?

I’ll admit, I’m a little worried at the current state of world affairs. My unease was made worse by a book I just finished. It’s called “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by investigative reporter Annie Jacobsen. I highly recommend it. It describes step by step exactly what happens in a nuclear exchange, from how the nuclear football works, to what the blast damage looks like. The TLDR is… your best bet is to be at ground zero and have it all over instantly. Anything else is just prolonged suffering. Nobody wins.

My bigger takeaway from the book is how fragile the entire system is. It’s truly frightening how little of a misjudgment it would take to kick the whole thing off. If we (or Russia or China) detect what we think is a nuclear warhead being launched, the president has six minutes to decide what to do. SIX MINUTES. And when you look at the shuffling dementia patient who currently holds the keys… I’m not filled with confidence at the decision making ability.

Now fast forward to today. Iran launched a massive strike against Israel. Fortunately all except seven of the missiles and drones were shot down. But now we face the million dollar question – now what?

Was this just stupid chest thumping by Iran so they can reclaim their manhood after their general was liquified by an Israeli missile in retaliation for Oct 7? It sort of looks like that since what they launched was old, slow, and we’ve known it was coming for a week now. If that was the case, shouldn’t both sides simply retreat back to their corners and maintain the status quo? Is it worth kicking off a full scale regional war that has the potential of escalating to something much worse?

But what if it was something else? What if it was a probe to judge the response? The US/UK/Israel basically just showed Iran (and anyone else watching) exactly what our response times are, how we respond, where each defensive launch point is, and how effective the anti-missile defense is. How many more iron dome and arrow missiles do we and Israel have remaining? Seems like a worthwhile exercise to go through if you don’t fear any real retaliation.

Let’s be real. The goal is to drive the Jews into the sea. Always has been, always will. The players may change, but the desire to eradicate Israel never ends. There is no amount of appeasement that is going to fix this. October 7th was a stark reminder. The moment Israel lets its guard down, even for a moment, the invading hoards will swarm intent on massacre. You know it, and I know it. If Iran thinks it can get away with an even bigger strike with minimal consequences, they’ll do it and you know it to be true. So what do we do?

My gut says it’s time to have a joint US/UK/Israel strike against Iran to completely devastate their infrastructure and economy. Ensure their nuclear weapon development programs are destroyed. Make sure they have zero economic power. It’s not like they’re going to hate us any more than they already do. While we’re at it, let’s wrest control back of the Red Sea shipping lanes. Oh, and how about we put some pressure on our “allies” like Qatar to stop harboring Hamas leadership? Help Israel finish cleaning out Hamas and start building bigger and better walls around Gaza and the West Bank. While we’re at it, southern Lebanon and Hezbollah should probably get a taste of real retribution. No more firing rockets into civilian homes with impunity.

Sometimes, a good ass kicking is the only way to stop a bully.

All fine and dandy, except… I’m not sure we can put that genie back in the bottle once it’s out. And color me skeptical, but I have zero faith in our “leaders” to make good decisions. Would Russia step in? Would China take this opportunity to take Taiwan? Do we really want to be mired in another forever war in the Middle East? What a mess.

It’s clear that our “experts”, both past and present, pretty much don’t know doodly-squat. Their ability to predict outcomes and consequences leave much to be desired. Like I said in the beginning, it wouldn’t take much for things to go horribly wrong. After all, WWI was started after some archduke was assassinated. The wrong missile flys over the wrong airspace and… boom. The end.

It’s a sobering thought. It’s a very scary time. Do we encourage everyone to step back, or do we go thump some heads before things get worse? Glad I’m not making the decisions. I just wish I had more faith in those who are.

Elections have consequences.