Tag: Israel

Government, Politics

What Comes Next?

I’ll admit, I’m a little worried at the current state of world affairs. My unease was made worse by a book I just finished. It’s called “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by investigative reporter Annie Jacobsen. I highly recommend it. It describes step by step exactly what happens in a nuclear exchange, from how the nuclear football works, to what the blast damage looks like. The TLDR is… your best bet is to be at ground zero and have it all over instantly. Anything else is just prolonged suffering. Nobody wins.

My bigger takeaway from the book is how fragile the entire system is. It’s truly frightening how little of a misjudgment it would take to kick the whole thing off. If we (or Russia or China) detect what we think is a nuclear warhead being launched, the president has six minutes to decide what to do. SIX MINUTES. And when you look at the shuffling dementia patient who currently holds the keys… I’m not filled with confidence at the decision making ability.

Now fast forward to today. Iran launched a massive strike against Israel. Fortunately all except seven of the missiles and drones were shot down. But now we face the million dollar question – now what?

Was this just stupid chest thumping by Iran so they can reclaim their manhood after their general was liquified by an Israeli missile in retaliation for Oct 7? It sort of looks like that since what they launched was old, slow, and we’ve known it was coming for a week now. If that was the case, shouldn’t both sides simply retreat back to their corners and maintain the status quo? Is it worth kicking off a full scale regional war that has the potential of escalating to something much worse?

But what if it was something else? What if it was a probe to judge the response? The US/UK/Israel basically just showed Iran (and anyone else watching) exactly what our response times are, how we respond, where each defensive launch point is, and how effective the anti-missile defense is. How many more iron dome and arrow missiles do we and Israel have remaining? Seems like a worthwhile exercise to go through if you don’t fear any real retaliation.

Let’s be real. The goal is to drive the Jews into the sea. Always has been, always will. The players may change, but the desire to eradicate Israel never ends. There is no amount of appeasement that is going to fix this. October 7th was a stark reminder. The moment Israel lets its guard down, even for a moment, the invading hoards will swarm intent on massacre. You know it, and I know it. If Iran thinks it can get away with an even bigger strike with minimal consequences, they’ll do it and you know it to be true. So what do we do?

My gut says it’s time to have a joint US/UK/Israel strike against Iran to completely devastate their infrastructure and economy. Ensure their nuclear weapon development programs are destroyed. Make sure they have zero economic power. It’s not like they’re going to hate us any more than they already do. While we’re at it, let’s wrest control back of the Red Sea shipping lanes. Oh, and how about we put some pressure on our “allies” like Qatar to stop harboring Hamas leadership? Help Israel finish cleaning out Hamas and start building bigger and better walls around Gaza and the West Bank. While we’re at it, southern Lebanon and Hezbollah should probably get a taste of real retribution. No more firing rockets into civilian homes with impunity.

Sometimes, a good ass kicking is the only way to stop a bully.

All fine and dandy, except… I’m not sure we can put that genie back in the bottle once it’s out. And color me skeptical, but I have zero faith in our “leaders” to make good decisions. Would Russia step in? Would China take this opportunity to take Taiwan? Do we really want to be mired in another forever war in the Middle East? What a mess.

It’s clear that our “experts”, both past and present, pretty much don’t know doodly-squat. Their ability to predict outcomes and consequences leave much to be desired. Like I said in the beginning, it wouldn’t take much for things to go horribly wrong. After all, WWI was started after some archduke was assassinated. The wrong missile flys over the wrong airspace and… boom. The end.

It’s a sobering thought. It’s a very scary time. Do we encourage everyone to step back, or do we go thump some heads before things get worse? Glad I’m not making the decisions. I just wish I had more faith in those who are.

Elections have consequences.

Motivation, Solving the wrong problem

Uncomfortable Truths

As a forewarning, I’m ’bout to lay down some uncomfortable truths that might make you a little squeamish. Ready? The nature of man is violence. Always has been, always will be. I know you don’t want to hear that, but it’s true. The problem is that the “civilized” West has forgotten this and I fear we’re going to be reminded of it at some point.

I can already hear the pink haired liberal arts students and latte sipping soccer moms denouncing me as a Neanderthal who probably lives in one of those fly-over states (I bet he owns guns too, they whisper). To not think that violence is at the very core of our being, ignores history. I suppose it’s understandable. Roughly three quarters of the population is under 60. World War Two, Vietnam, Korea, the Ku Klux Klan… are already ancient issues in history books. Almost fifty percent of the population is under 40, which means they were likely brought up in the modern, woke education system. A system that tells children that our most pressing issue is climate change and that white colonizers are the most dangerous people on the planet.

I get it. We have been blessed with a level of security unimaginable in most of the world for the last fifty years. When you’re blessed with financial and physical security it’s easy to make the plight of the spotted owl your top priority. I don’t think that’s going to last much longer.

Man is a violent and brutal animal. The history of the world is built on conquest. From the Romans to the Vikings, and up to our own settlement of the nation – it was done through violent conquering of existing people. Mankind has always understood this and knew that violence was kept at bay by… violence. If you tolerate criminals, you’re going to get more crime. If you don’t prepare for invasion, you’re going to get invaded. These are not hard concepts to grasp.

But apparently they are. Somewhere along the line we decided that prioritizing clean energy electric buses was more important than having cops on the street. We decided that prosecuting criminals and keeping them in jail was bad for their self-esteem. And the results have been predictable. I guess we’re not allowed to talk about it because of race or DEI or something. But hey, if nothing else the New York City police department now has a killer new dance team. All cities should follow their lead. Just imagine, we can have a nationwide police dance-off!

And while police departments are dancing and criminals are looting stores at will, we have a literal invasion happening at our border. We don’t even pretend anymore. I guess as a nation we simply decided that everyone on the planet is welcome to come. No worries, we’ll just print more money to take care of all our wonderful new residents. What could possibly go wrong?

Well clearly there’s about a thousand things on the list that could go wrong, but number one… October 7th. You know, that little incident in Israel. The savage, barbaric nature of that attack IS the true nature of man. That is what historically happened when towns were invaded. Do you think the Romans took care to spare civilians when they conquered a city? What do you think the aftermath of the various crusades looked like? When one group hates another, or needs resources, all bets are off. Mankind will do some truly horrible things to one another.

I know that here in the West we don’t want to think of such things. We’re more civilized than that. We’ve evolved. Besides, those are problems for over there. We’re untouchable.

Lest we forget, 19 people carried out 9/11. We’re currently at 7.5 million people who have streamed across our border in the last three years. You don’t think out of all those people there are another 19, or a thousand, or ten thousand who wish us harm? You’re a fool if you don’t.

The Islamic Caliphate is real. They hate us and Israel with a passion. Do you think that went away when we left Afghanistan? Silly rabbit. October 7th? It’s going to happen here, mark my words. Meanwhile, there’s nothing to stop the cartels from simply moving in and taking over US cities mob-style.

Mankind hasn’t changed. Weakness begets violence. Israel got complacent and worried about left-wing public opinion. Hamas, prompted by the Islamic State, took advantage. And given a chance, they’ll do it again. And because of that, Israel is doing the right thing in their response.

Historically when you invaded a city, you killed all the fighting age males, kept the children, and sold off the women as slaves. Why? Because if you didn’t, they’d come back and invade you in retaliation. Do you really think things are different today? Wars and conflicts end when the enemy has lost the ability to continue. It’s not pretty, but if Israel doesn’t end Hamas completely… they’ll be right back at the same place in a few years.

And the same holds true for us. If we don’t end the nonsense at the border and sort out who’s here, we’ll be right back in the Global War on Terror. We’re going to suffer a 9/11 on steroids, we’ll respond with a bombardment of Iran, and then we’re off to the races.

I know it’s not fashionable to say, but man is violent. Roman Emperor Hadrian first said “peace through strength or, failing that, peace through threat.” Reagan repeated it in the 1980’s. It was true then and it’s true today. It holds true for crime in the streets as well as keeping the Mongol hordes at bay. The latte sipping leftists are going to learn it one way or another.

History is a bitch, ’cause it just keeps repeating.

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.

Daily Life

Mid Week Thoughts

I’m trying to avoid another long, rambling post inspired by my Norse ancestors that discusses in excruciating detail the world history of invasion and conquest. Therefore I’ll keep today’s post to some short random thoughts.

  • Mrs Troutdog and I have been in-transit, traveling, and otherwise had zero predictability in our schedules for at least a month now (if not longer). We came home to a refrigerator whose sole contents were half a bag of shredded cheese, mayonnaise, and two eggs. We didn’t want to shop because we’re heading out again and won’t be back until next week. I made a comment of something along the lines of “whew, it’ll be nice when we finally get back to a regular schedule”. This morning I remembered an older post I’d written addressing this false feeling. It’s a crutch to think that “as soon as things calm down” I’ll get back to my routine. I’ve been using that crutch all summer. The harsh truth is that I don’t have a routine to get back to. It’s past due time to fix that.
  • I have no idea who this politician is since I’m not Canadian. Doesn’t matter – take a moment and watch this exchange. It’s a masterclass on how to handle the press. Journalism is garbage today. This “journalist” exemplifies the media establishment. He throws out vague statements like “a lot of people would say” and “taking a page out of Trumps playbook”, yet can’t define or articulate what any of those things or people are. We need people who can call this garbage journalism out and push back on the standard narrative.
  • It’s an El Niño year and hard to tell what the snow is going to do in my part of the world. I’m torn. I want snow. We’re also in the desperate last stages of a hardscape project in the backyard that’s going to be down to the wire to complete before snowfall. I think I’ll selfishly wish for a delayed start to the season so my project can get done.
  • Speaking of ski season, I don’t know what to expect this year. I’m having surgery to repair torn abdominal muscles in a few weeks. The surgeon says I should be able to be back on the slopes in six weeks. That puts me at mid-December. In theory I should be good to go. This will be my first ever surgery. How I managed to not seriously hurt myself before this is a mystery. I have no idea what to expect. (note to self, go re-read my first point)
  • It’s fall in my part of the world and we have leaves. Lots and lots of leaves falling. I filled up six bags plus the garbage can a few days ago. There’s easily another six to eight bags worth of leaves that have fallen since then. Picking up leaves is not among my favorite yard work tasks.
  • I find it interesting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has produced 600,000-800,000 wounded and dead. Nobody is calling for a cease-fire or pleading to protect innocent civilian life. Israel strikes back at Hamas after being brutally attacked and there’s near instantaneous wailing and gnashing of teeth to cease-fire and protect precious innocent civilians. Why is that?
  • Speaking of Hamas, the hospital being bombed story last night was the perfect representation of how the media covers the conflict. Something explodes at a hospital and Hamas instantly accuses Israel of intentionally targeting and bombing a hospital. 500 people killed! Oh, the humanity! What sort of butcher would do such a thing? The media ran with it. Members of congress condemned Israel for it. And this morning… oops, it was Hamas’ own rocket that landed in a parking lot with an unknown number of casualties, but certainly not 500. The retractions and apologies for the false story? Crickets…
  • This is our president making a statement in a pivotal moment for a potentially dangerous and escalating conflict. It’s embarrassing and frightening. I can only imagine what other world leaders are thinking. If you voted for Biden, can you now honestly say that you feel good about that choice? Was a protest vote against Trump worth having a dementia patient in charge? The curious thing is… who’s really calling the shots? We know it’s not Biden.
  • I’m going fly fishing this weekend on one of the hardest and trickiest rivers to fish. It’s world-renown. We’re going with a guide, so at least I have a tiny chance of landing something. My single goal is to not embarrass myself too badly. There’s a reason I haven’t attempted to fish this stretch before. Wish me luck.

And that’s that. Another week and a half of travel and non-routine. Then surgery and recovery. Interesting times. Go out and do something fun in the fall colors. Winter is just around the corner!

Daily Life, Motivation, woke

Mr Rogers Neighborhood

As we sit back and watch the various wars kicking off across the globe, it’s tempting to wonder how we got here? The best summary I’ve seen so far was from a meme on Twitter (X). It said in reference to the Hamas attack – all of this could have been prevented if Israel had just put “Gun Free Zone” signs up near the border. I’ll pause a minute while you ponder that.

Normal people want to live in a Mr Rogers idealistic neighborhood. Prosperity helps foster that dream. What people don’t want to talk about is the other side of the coin – A polite society can only exist with the threat of consequences for bad behavior. We’d like to think we can achieve a kumbaya, crunchy granola world if everyone would just practice being nice. That unfortunately ignores the entirety of human existence.

Until very recently, a polite society existed only because of the threat of having your skull split was the consequence of bad behavior. Nowadays we worry more about harming peoples self-esteem than deterring them from crime. I think of this every time I see the ridiculous climate protestors who block streets and glue themselves to paintings in museums. The only thing that will happen to them is they’ll be peacefully arrested and immediately released, thus achieving their protester merit badge. They make the news and get their idiotic message out.

Now, if angry mobs of blocked motorists started dragging them by their hair to the curb and giving them a bit of a pummeling… they might start thinking twice about how to get their message across. Now I’m not advocating for violence, but without consequences for your actions you can do whatever you want.

Take Israel for example. They are surrounded by nations that openly declare the desire to wipe them off the map. They have been attacked on the regular, from all sides, for 70+ years. And every time they punch back the collective world screeches for a “proportional response”. Uhm, if you haven’t been much of a student of history, here’s a dirty little secret – a disproportionate response is how you end wars. Otherwise your enemy simply regroups and attacks again. see Gaza for the last 20 years

Hamas, PLO, Hezbollah, et al., have chosen time and time and time again to be feral animals. They have decided that the destruction of Israel is more important than trying to normalize relations and build some sort of society for their people. I suspect Hamas finally pushed the envelope a bit too far this time. As the old saying goes, if ye fuckith around, ye shall findith out. If Israel doesn’t end them, it’s only going to happen again as soon as they regroup. Let’s just hope their neighbors to the north sit this one out. I’m not sure we can put the genie back in the bottle if that conflict pops off.

My point? Much of “civilized” society today has decided that worrying about hurting someone’s feelings is more important than maintaining a functional community. As you watch brazen, unchecked looting and stealing from your local Walmart, ask yourself “how’s that working out?” When glitzy Hollywood has to be told don’t risk wearing jewelry when walking around because the police can’t/won’t do anything about crime… that’s a sign things have gone sideways. Much of Europe probably secretly regrets allowing unchecked migration. Sweden now has 20+ areas that are classified by the police as “no go” areas due to crime and rape. The US is just barely starting to wake up to the consequences of allowing the cartels to control our border. It’s hard not to laugh at the Mayor of New York realizing that his sanctuary city policies aren’t working out so well.

We’re living in some strange times. Everything seems a bit upside down and opposite. I sometimes wonder how far off we are from retreating back to tribal villages that band together to protect themselves and maintain their own customs and beliefs. ’cause that whole one world globalist thing isn’t panning out so well. But that’s a little Mad Max apocalyptic I suppose. I blame it on my blocked eardrums from a dive trip last week. I can’t hear anything and it’s making me grumpy.

But then again any society, when pushed hard enough, will eventually lash out. As H.L. Mencken once wrote:

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”