Tag: conflict

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.

Daily Life

Mid Week Thoughts

I’m trying to avoid another long, rambling post inspired by my Norse ancestors that discusses in excruciating detail the world history of invasion and conquest. Therefore I’ll keep today’s post to some short random thoughts.

  • Mrs Troutdog and I have been in-transit, traveling, and otherwise had zero predictability in our schedules for at least a month now (if not longer). We came home to a refrigerator whose sole contents were half a bag of shredded cheese, mayonnaise, and two eggs. We didn’t want to shop because we’re heading out again and won’t be back until next week. I made a comment of something along the lines of “whew, it’ll be nice when we finally get back to a regular schedule”. This morning I remembered an older post I’d written addressing this false feeling. It’s a crutch to think that “as soon as things calm down” I’ll get back to my routine. I’ve been using that crutch all summer. The harsh truth is that I don’t have a routine to get back to. It’s past due time to fix that.
  • I have no idea who this politician is since I’m not Canadian. Doesn’t matter – take a moment and watch this exchange. It’s a masterclass on how to handle the press. Journalism is garbage today. This “journalist” exemplifies the media establishment. He throws out vague statements like “a lot of people would say” and “taking a page out of Trumps playbook”, yet can’t define or articulate what any of those things or people are. We need people who can call this garbage journalism out and push back on the standard narrative.
  • It’s an El Niño year and hard to tell what the snow is going to do in my part of the world. I’m torn. I want snow. We’re also in the desperate last stages of a hardscape project in the backyard that’s going to be down to the wire to complete before snowfall. I think I’ll selfishly wish for a delayed start to the season so my project can get done.
  • Speaking of ski season, I don’t know what to expect this year. I’m having surgery to repair torn abdominal muscles in a few weeks. The surgeon says I should be able to be back on the slopes in six weeks. That puts me at mid-December. In theory I should be good to go. This will be my first ever surgery. How I managed to not seriously hurt myself before this is a mystery. I have no idea what to expect. (note to self, go re-read my first point)
  • It’s fall in my part of the world and we have leaves. Lots and lots of leaves falling. I filled up six bags plus the garbage can a few days ago. There’s easily another six to eight bags worth of leaves that have fallen since then. Picking up leaves is not among my favorite yard work tasks.
  • I find it interesting that the Russia-Ukraine conflict has produced 600,000-800,000 wounded and dead. Nobody is calling for a cease-fire or pleading to protect innocent civilian life. Israel strikes back at Hamas after being brutally attacked and there’s near instantaneous wailing and gnashing of teeth to cease-fire and protect precious innocent civilians. Why is that?
  • Speaking of Hamas, the hospital being bombed story last night was the perfect representation of how the media covers the conflict. Something explodes at a hospital and Hamas instantly accuses Israel of intentionally targeting and bombing a hospital. 500 people killed! Oh, the humanity! What sort of butcher would do such a thing? The media ran with it. Members of congress condemned Israel for it. And this morning… oops, it was Hamas’ own rocket that landed in a parking lot with an unknown number of casualties, but certainly not 500. The retractions and apologies for the false story? Crickets…
  • This is our president making a statement in a pivotal moment for a potentially dangerous and escalating conflict. It’s embarrassing and frightening. I can only imagine what other world leaders are thinking. If you voted for Biden, can you now honestly say that you feel good about that choice? Was a protest vote against Trump worth having a dementia patient in charge? The curious thing is… who’s really calling the shots? We know it’s not Biden.
  • I’m going fly fishing this weekend on one of the hardest and trickiest rivers to fish. It’s world-renown. We’re going with a guide, so at least I have a tiny chance of landing something. My single goal is to not embarrass myself too badly. There’s a reason I haven’t attempted to fish this stretch before. Wish me luck.

And that’s that. Another week and a half of travel and non-routine. Then surgery and recovery. Interesting times. Go out and do something fun in the fall colors. Winter is just around the corner!

Daily Life, Motivation, woke

Mr Rogers Neighborhood

As we sit back and watch the various wars kicking off across the globe, it’s tempting to wonder how we got here? The best summary I’ve seen so far was from a meme on Twitter (X). It said in reference to the Hamas attack – all of this could have been prevented if Israel had just put “Gun Free Zone” signs up near the border. I’ll pause a minute while you ponder that.

Normal people want to live in a Mr Rogers idealistic neighborhood. Prosperity helps foster that dream. What people don’t want to talk about is the other side of the coin – A polite society can only exist with the threat of consequences for bad behavior. We’d like to think we can achieve a kumbaya, crunchy granola world if everyone would just practice being nice. That unfortunately ignores the entirety of human existence.

Until very recently, a polite society existed only because of the threat of having your skull split was the consequence of bad behavior. Nowadays we worry more about harming peoples self-esteem than deterring them from crime. I think of this every time I see the ridiculous climate protestors who block streets and glue themselves to paintings in museums. The only thing that will happen to them is they’ll be peacefully arrested and immediately released, thus achieving their protester merit badge. They make the news and get their idiotic message out.

Now, if angry mobs of blocked motorists started dragging them by their hair to the curb and giving them a bit of a pummeling… they might start thinking twice about how to get their message across. Now I’m not advocating for violence, but without consequences for your actions you can do whatever you want.

Take Israel for example. They are surrounded by nations that openly declare the desire to wipe them off the map. They have been attacked on the regular, from all sides, for 70+ years. And every time they punch back the collective world screeches for a “proportional response”. Uhm, if you haven’t been much of a student of history, here’s a dirty little secret – a disproportionate response is how you end wars. Otherwise your enemy simply regroups and attacks again. see Gaza for the last 20 years

Hamas, PLO, Hezbollah, et al., have chosen time and time and time again to be feral animals. They have decided that the destruction of Israel is more important than trying to normalize relations and build some sort of society for their people. I suspect Hamas finally pushed the envelope a bit too far this time. As the old saying goes, if ye fuckith around, ye shall findith out. If Israel doesn’t end them, it’s only going to happen again as soon as they regroup. Let’s just hope their neighbors to the north sit this one out. I’m not sure we can put the genie back in the bottle if that conflict pops off.

My point? Much of “civilized” society today has decided that worrying about hurting someone’s feelings is more important than maintaining a functional community. As you watch brazen, unchecked looting and stealing from your local Walmart, ask yourself “how’s that working out?” When glitzy Hollywood has to be told don’t risk wearing jewelry when walking around because the police can’t/won’t do anything about crime… that’s a sign things have gone sideways. Much of Europe probably secretly regrets allowing unchecked migration. Sweden now has 20+ areas that are classified by the police as “no go” areas due to crime and rape. The US is just barely starting to wake up to the consequences of allowing the cartels to control our border. It’s hard not to laugh at the Mayor of New York realizing that his sanctuary city policies aren’t working out so well.

We’re living in some strange times. Everything seems a bit upside down and opposite. I sometimes wonder how far off we are from retreating back to tribal villages that band together to protect themselves and maintain their own customs and beliefs. ’cause that whole one world globalist thing isn’t panning out so well. But that’s a little Mad Max apocalyptic I suppose. I blame it on my blocked eardrums from a dive trip last week. I can’t hear anything and it’s making me grumpy.

But then again any society, when pushed hard enough, will eventually lash out. As H.L. Mencken once wrote:

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

Daily Life

No More News

Decade after decade without a natural predator to trim the deadwood has turned Americans into herd animals. All they want to do is chew their cud and watch television.

Clay Martin, Wrath of the Wendigo

It used to be a routine. Read the paper in the morning. Sundays were the best. A full three pounds of newsprint (I still remember delivering those big boys on my bike as a little kid). Hours of reading. Plenty of longer form content, opinion pieces, the comics, Parade magazine, sports. Evenings was a half hour of local news (mostly watched for the weather), followed by an hour of a “serious” evening news program so you’d know what happened in the world. If you were a real news junkie, you’d subscribe to at least a few other national newspapers as well as some monthly magazines. Throw in a few publications like Esquire, Rolling Stone, and Powder Magazine (Ski Magazine wasn’t cool enough) so you could be hip, and boom – you’re reasonably in touch with the world.

Then came CNN. 24 hours of news? Who in the world would watch that? I distinctly remember watching Bernard Shaw reporting from Iraq at the start of the first gulf war. Wow. We were seeing war in real-time. What the news industry could morph into was mind-blowing and exciting. Fast forward to today and 95% of all news media, video and print, is now basically a news version of the early Maury Povich or Morton Downey Jr. trash TV shows.

The point of “news” today is to generate clicks, likes, and engagement. Like Maury Povich’s “who’s the daddy” segments, the point is to get that gasp or cheer from the audience. It doesn’t matter if it’s true or not as long as you capture the eyeballs. Turn on any of the alphabet news channels and you’ll see one of two formats. The most popular is to give a twenty second intro, to a hopefully controversial topic, and then turn to a panel of media personalities that yell at each other. Your other option is a thirty second description of a story, then bring on an “expert” calling in via Zoom from their living room and give them twenty seconds to babble before cutting them off. Whoo hoo, journalism bitches!

It is becoming exceedingly rare for me to watch any sort of news channel. It’s pointless. Not only for the aforementioned trash TV format, but because I’ve already read or watched anything news related that day via Twitter. Twitter, as Elon has said, truly has become the public square for information. Anything that happens in the world shows up on Twitter long before the mainstream media outlets begin reporting on it. Want long form opinion? It seems everyone with a pulse now has a Substack or podcast. I can read opinions on any subject under the sun.

The beauty of Twitter? I get to curate what I see and have the freedom to decide what I think is truth, opinion, or tin-foil-hat conspiracy. If you are sad enough to only consume CNN… you get a slick used car salesman, Joy Behar version of the news.

So, here’s the million-dollar question. Is the media doing it because that’s what they think we want, or have we truly become that dumb? Have we reached the start of the Idiocracy era? I’m not naive enough to think the early versions of the news I grew up with didn’t have an agenda. Government absolutely attempted to influence the nightly narrative we were fed by Walter Cronkrite. But at least back then, they had to tread somewhat lightly… people still practiced journalism from time to time. Today, the government has an actual private pipeline to all the social media platforms (as revealed by the Twitter file dumps).

My gut feeling? We (the US) have become that dumb. We all want nothing more than to be Instagram influencers, buy cheap shit from Amazon, and binge the latest celebrity expose series on Netflix. If the government tells us we all need to subscribe to a national digital ID, well super! It will make everyday life so much easier. Just make sure I know what the latest thing is, so I can post my solidarity flag on Facebook.

Clearly, I’m feeling a bit cynical today. But for good reason. The crash is coming. Deglobalization is happening, and the Ukraine conflict will produce ripple effects in oil prices, energy scarcity, fertilizer supply, and food prices that are going to hurt. Very quickly, everything that comes from someplace else… is going to be harder to get and more expensive. Oh, Don Lemon isn’t talking about this on CNN? Hmm. The gap between the haves and have-nots in this country is going to accelerate rapidly. Throw in a non-stop media barrage of racial division and, well, you get unrest. People who can’t afford to buy eggs or fill up their cars will want to vent their anger towards someone. And when you split the country like we are now… whoever the other side is a perfect target.

Or maybe not. Maybe we’ll defeat Putin (whatever that means). Everyone will have an electric vehicle. Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion rules will solve all those pesky social issues. We’ll tax the rich enough to solve our budget and inflation problems. We’ll finally get around to replacing the police with conflict therapists. AI will free us from the mundane of day-to-day jobs. Peace. Love. Harmony.

Maybe.

Or, become a Contrarian. Question everything. Become ungovernable. Oh, and prepare. You’ve been forewarned.