California is in trouble. The fires are simply awful. At this point it will take a generation to rebuild. I doubt it will happen, but if CA was ever to flip red now is the time. Why? Finally the lack of competence has been exposed in a way that can’t be brushed under the rug. Homelessness, crime, poor roads – all things that can be obfuscated with a bunch of McKinsey consultant gobbldey goop word salad in a press release issued by a newly graduated twenty something marketing student. But multiple fires that wipe out entire city areas? Nope, you’re not going to be able to blame an act of god like a tornado or hurricane for this one. How this was handled is a direct result of incompetent leadership.

Everyone knows what competence looks like. It doesn’t matter if it’s a politician, a department manager at your company, or a tradesperson. Competent people give off an aura. Deep down you just know who’s got it and who doesn’t. The scary scenario is when incompetent people rise to a position of power and start thinking their shit don’t stink because people are forced to defer to their position in the hierarchy.

There’s a phrase we use in nursing, “staying ahead of the curve”. It means anticipating worst case scenarios and proactively managing them. Recognizing that a patient is at risk of sepsis so you do extra vitals checks to catch a sudden rise in heart rate or a temp increase. Understanding that a patient fresh out of surgery is prone to urinary retention so you do frequent bladder scans. Staying ahead of the curve means aggressively managing your patients with the highest risks and not letting the rest of your 3,000 daily tasks distract you.

It’s a little inside baseball, but new nurses are scary. You’re overwhelmed and simply reacting to whatever is thrown in front of you minute by minute. It’s easy to get sucked in to spending large amounts of time with the patient who frequently, loudly, complains about everything. Or the little old lady who constantly tries to get out of bed, setting off the bed alarm. And you’re behind in all your medication administrations because you got a new admit from surgery. Meanwhile, you ignore the quiet old man who’s rapidly descending into SIRS (Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome). He’s easy and never complains. The CNA charted that he’s running a temperature but you haven’t had time to look at the charts for a while. He’s probably going to code in the next few hours because you got behind the curve and didn’t recognize what was happening. It takes a new nurse at least a year before they stop being reactive and start seeing a glimpse of the curve.

“Getting behind the curve” is exactly what happened in LA (and California as a whole). Politicians and leaders who don’t recognize that they’re incompetent. Busy reacting to whatever the media issue of the day is. Focused on DEI and intra-party squabbles and power positioning. Enjoying taxpayer paid trips to Ghana. Nonstop whining about needing more money to fight climate change. So when the inevitable happened, they were caught flatfooted and the infrastructure collapsed.

A perfect example of staying ahead of the curve is the state of Florida. You may not like his politics, but it’s hard to deny that Gov DeSantis is extremely capable. Every hurricane you see the state prepositioning thousands of linemen, getting emergency services set up, and being very proactive about communication. It’s very clear who’s in charge and running the state.

California? Nobody’s in charge. Everyone points fingers and deflects blame. Nothing gets done. The Biden administration is exactly the same. Name one person in the cabinet who you’d confidently say is competent. Blinken? Buttigieg? Harris? Whew, we dodged a bullet with that one. She would have been the Presidential version of the LA mayor. I shudder to think what would have happened to the country had she been elected.

I don’t mean this to be a partisan rant. It’s a rant about incompetence. I want leaders who stay ahead of the curve. I don’t care what party you’re from. I want the trains to run on time, the roads to be maintained, the police and fire departments to be well run, an atmosphere of economic growth and stability, and I want my taxes to be well spent. Do those things well and I won’t care if there’s an R or a D after your name.

To the citizens of my former state of California – I hope you now see the consequences of incompetent leadership. It’s easy to celebrate that you have the first LGBTQ+ leader of the fire department. Or that you’re banning diesel trucks because you care about climate change. Symbolism over substance is easy.

Until you get too far behind the curve. Then things get real in a hurry. And FYI, you’re still behind the curve. It’s time to get ahead before things go really bad.