Tag: War

Government, Politics

You Have A Plan, Right?

Whooo boy, the dust-up in the Oval Office the other day sure stirred up the hornets nest. This issue is what’s known as a “shibboleth.” It’s a biblical term for a password used to distinguish one group from another, it’s evolved to mean a belief, issue, or even a phrase that serves as a clear marker of someone’s ideological tribe or moral stance. It’s a signal that cuts through the noise. Ask someone what they thought of the Zelenskyy, Trump, Vance verbal sparring and you’ll have a pretty good idea of their ideological leaning.

For all those folks once again posting “Glory to Ukraine” (the meaning of Slava Ukraini) on their social media, I have a question… now what? What’s the plan? How EXACTLY is this war going to end? Because I don’t see anything from the leftist warmongers or the EU that resembles any sort of path to end the killing. Nobody knows what the real figure is but 300,000 to 400,000 killed and wounded Ukrainian soldiers is a good rough guess. How long should that go on? It’s noble and all that you want to support the brave Ukrainians fighting against the evil Russians, but it’s now WWI style trench warfare with the added upgrade of remotely operated killer drones. As VP Vance said, the Ukrainian military is snatching people off the street and throwing them into this meat grinder. Do you really want this to continue indefinitely?

Absolutely nothing has changed since Sept of ’23 when I first said this. What’s the plan? How do we end this? I know that the left recoils at the mere thought that the horrible orange Nazi might be trying to do a good thing – but it’s pretty hard to deny that he genuinely seems to want to end the killing, stop the billions of dollars we’re spending, and prevent an escalation to WW3. How can you possibly be against that? I honestly want to understand the logic.

I get it – you think if we don’t stop them, the Russians are going to march across the frozen plains of Ukraine and invade the EU first chance they get. That’s all good and wonderful. Again, what is the plan? Put US/NATO troops on the ground? A NATO led no-fly zone in Ukraine? NATO strikes into Russia? Please explain in detail how that doesn’t escalate to Russia sending hypersonic missiles into EU cities? And what would our response to that be?

As much as the world would like Russia to suddenly decide this was a huge mistake and to pull all their troops back to the original border… it’s not going to happen. Sorry to disappoint you. Russia isn’t going anywhere. Choices are initiate a WW3 style offensive to push them out, or negotiate a deal that makes them happy. I know you don’t want to hear that, but it’s the truth.

If the EU really wants to push continued resistance and fighting, then you go girl. More power to you. We’re out. Oh, and just an FYI – if you poke the bear enough that he starts lobbing missiles at you, don’t look to us for help. We tried to warn you. And all that money you saved by not meeting your NATO security commitments… I guess you’re going to have to pay up now ’cause we’re not funding this nonsense any longer.

I’ll end where I started – if you’re in the ‘Slava Ukraini’ camp, what’s your plan? How do you end this without much of Europe becoming a smoldering crater? What death count are you comfortable with before this is done? Because I’ve seen nothing resembling a realistic path forward from anyone other than a certain orange man who can’t be named without TDS induced hysteria.

And that’s a hard pill to swallow…

Government, Politics

Remember The Doomsday Clock?

I’m old enough to remember practicing ‘duck and cover’ drills in elementary school. I’m not sure how diving under my desk with my hands over my head was going to protect me from a nuclear blast, but I was ready. We all knew about the Doomsday Clock that had been created in 1947 in the aftermath of the manhattan project. The closer the hands got to midnight, the closer we were to all out nuclear war and global armageddon. The hands have been moved forward and backwards 25 times since its creation. The hands are currently the closest to midnight they’ve ever been. The clock was set to 90 seconds last year. That’s an even more dire risk assessment than during the Cold War. I don’t give the clock much credence (they now include global warming in the calculation), but it is a proxy for the current world-wide unrest. Thinking about the Doomsday Clock made me change my mind about our current political crisis.

It hasn’t been a secret that Biden is not running the country. It’s not clear who the final decision maker is or even if there is one. Perhaps everything is run by committee. Realistically I don’t think it matters who the democratic candidate is. Biden, Harris, Newsom, etc… if they win nothing changes. The same committee will still be running the country. Up until yesterday’s NATO press conference I was content to keep Biden in the running as I think he’s the best chance Trump has to win. Not that I think Trump is a great choice, but he’d be lightyears better than the current administration. But listening to the NATO speeches about global expansion and Biden’s disastrous big boy press conference, I believe for the safety of the country the president needs to be removed from office.

As I have been saying for a long time, the president clearly has Parkinsons and some level of dementia. Up until the campaign started in ernest, they’ve managed to mostly keep him out of sight and the press was happy to play along. Watching the press conference it was even more clear for me that the man is unable to maintain a train of thought, forgets names, and is word searching. The disease is progressing rapidly and even if he were to win (which is not out of the question), I guarantee that he’d have to be removed from office within six months.

I was an RN on a neuro floor for years and spent plenty of time with Parkinson’s patients. Several of the lesser known side effects of the disease are paranoia and hallucinations. That’s a scary thought. The leader of the free world, the man with the nuclear codes, might be experiencing wild mood swings and paranoia stemming from an inability to distinguish between reality and hallucinations. If you watched the press conference, towards the end he had a weird shouting outburst after randomly talking about guns. That’s the Parkinsons in action. Who knows what else will set him off when he’s behind closed doors?

I’d like to believe there’s enough people and systems in place that Biden can’t just willy nilly start launching missiles, or order a carrier strike group to provoke China, but I don’t have a lot of faith in this administration. I think the real worry is that the rest of the world sees with crystal clear clarity that the president is incapacitated. That increases the odds of bad actors out there doing something serious in an already unstable world. I absolutely do not trust this administration to make smart decisions and keep from starting WWIII. I think everyone from Iran, China, North Korea, to Islamic sleeper cells in our country are currently evaluating making a move now prior to the election. We’re in a pretty vulnerable and frightening spot at the moment.

I never thought I’d say this, but at this moment I’d rather have Biden step down (or be removed) and have Harris as president for the next six months. I don’t think she’d be any more competent than the dementia patient, but at least she wouldn’t be suffering from hallucinations. As long as she can keep from cackling she’d at least be able to read the teleprompter and “look” semi-presidential. That might be enough to keep the world at status quo.

My god, how did we get to this place? The cabal, the committee, whoever’s been running things, are some truly evil people. People who are willing to put the country and the world at risk so they can maintain power and keep the military industrial complex running. They’ve been happy to keep an actual dementia patient propped up as a figurehead so they can achieve their goals. It’s insane when you think about it.

So even though removing Biden reduces Trumps chances to 50/50 at best, I still think it’s the right thing to do. We’re at a scary inflection point.

I think the Doomsday Clock is closer to 30 seconds now.

Government, Politics

What Comes Next?

I’ll admit, I’m a little worried at the current state of world affairs. My unease was made worse by a book I just finished. It’s called “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by investigative reporter Annie Jacobsen. I highly recommend it. It describes step by step exactly what happens in a nuclear exchange, from how the nuclear football works, to what the blast damage looks like. The TLDR is… your best bet is to be at ground zero and have it all over instantly. Anything else is just prolonged suffering. Nobody wins.

My bigger takeaway from the book is how fragile the entire system is. It’s truly frightening how little of a misjudgment it would take to kick the whole thing off. If we (or Russia or China) detect what we think is a nuclear warhead being launched, the president has six minutes to decide what to do. SIX MINUTES. And when you look at the shuffling dementia patient who currently holds the keys… I’m not filled with confidence at the decision making ability.

Now fast forward to today. Iran launched a massive strike against Israel. Fortunately all except seven of the missiles and drones were shot down. But now we face the million dollar question – now what?

Was this just stupid chest thumping by Iran so they can reclaim their manhood after their general was liquified by an Israeli missile in retaliation for Oct 7? It sort of looks like that since what they launched was old, slow, and we’ve known it was coming for a week now. If that was the case, shouldn’t both sides simply retreat back to their corners and maintain the status quo? Is it worth kicking off a full scale regional war that has the potential of escalating to something much worse?

But what if it was something else? What if it was a probe to judge the response? The US/UK/Israel basically just showed Iran (and anyone else watching) exactly what our response times are, how we respond, where each defensive launch point is, and how effective the anti-missile defense is. How many more iron dome and arrow missiles do we and Israel have remaining? Seems like a worthwhile exercise to go through if you don’t fear any real retaliation.

Let’s be real. The goal is to drive the Jews into the sea. Always has been, always will. The players may change, but the desire to eradicate Israel never ends. There is no amount of appeasement that is going to fix this. October 7th was a stark reminder. The moment Israel lets its guard down, even for a moment, the invading hoards will swarm intent on massacre. You know it, and I know it. If Iran thinks it can get away with an even bigger strike with minimal consequences, they’ll do it and you know it to be true. So what do we do?

My gut says it’s time to have a joint US/UK/Israel strike against Iran to completely devastate their infrastructure and economy. Ensure their nuclear weapon development programs are destroyed. Make sure they have zero economic power. It’s not like they’re going to hate us any more than they already do. While we’re at it, let’s wrest control back of the Red Sea shipping lanes. Oh, and how about we put some pressure on our “allies” like Qatar to stop harboring Hamas leadership? Help Israel finish cleaning out Hamas and start building bigger and better walls around Gaza and the West Bank. While we’re at it, southern Lebanon and Hezbollah should probably get a taste of real retribution. No more firing rockets into civilian homes with impunity.

Sometimes, a good ass kicking is the only way to stop a bully.

All fine and dandy, except… I’m not sure we can put that genie back in the bottle once it’s out. And color me skeptical, but I have zero faith in our “leaders” to make good decisions. Would Russia step in? Would China take this opportunity to take Taiwan? Do we really want to be mired in another forever war in the Middle East? What a mess.

It’s clear that our “experts”, both past and present, pretty much don’t know doodly-squat. Their ability to predict outcomes and consequences leave much to be desired. Like I said in the beginning, it wouldn’t take much for things to go horribly wrong. After all, WWI was started after some archduke was assassinated. The wrong missile flys over the wrong airspace and… boom. The end.

It’s a sobering thought. It’s a very scary time. Do we encourage everyone to step back, or do we go thump some heads before things get worse? Glad I’m not making the decisions. I just wish I had more faith in those who are.

Elections have consequences.

Government, Politics

The Adults Are Back In Charge

The level of incompetence found in this administration is breathtaking. Or it’s calculated evil. I can’t decide which. Before you start shouting about the Illuminati partnering with the WEF to create a new global world order… it’s not. This is a case of snotty, condescending, east coast elites who all went to the best Ivy League schools and are sure they’re the smartest kids in the class. Suddenly they find themselves in power and discover that the cockamamie ideas they bantered about in their dorm rooms when they were making fun of Dan Quayle spelling potato, aren’t working in real life. But just like Disney, rather than admit they were wrong, they decide to double down. And that scares the hell out of me.

Yesterday Secretary of State Antony Blinken reaffirmed that Ukraine will join NATO. National security advisor Jake Sullivan said the same thing last July. So not only are we doing everything humanly possible to prolong the war in Ukraine, we’ve decided that our foreign policy objective is to cross the red line that Putin specifically declared as a path to war. Why?

Why do we continue to push a war that Ukraine has no chance of winning? None. Zero. If you disagree, please explain how Ukraine is going to defeat the entire Russian army – and not just defeat them, but destroy them to the point that Russia will pull back to the original border and Putin will simply apologize and promise to never do it again. Do you really, honestly, think that’s going to happen? Of course not and you know it. So what exactly then is our objective?

At some point, Putin will tire of the stalemate and choose to take decisive action. And then what do we do? This brinksmanship is beyond frightening because of how fast it could escalate to something really bad. Meanwhile, we’re going to vote to send Ukraine another 60 billion dollars (that we don’t have) next week. And, as confirmed by representative Massie, not a single congressperson nor the state department even has the slightest idea how many Ukrainians have been killed in this war. It’s disgusting.

The disastrous Afghanistan withdrawal. The unintended consequences of the open border. Loss of the strategic petroleum reserve. Near total depletion of our military ammunition stockpiles. Nord Stream. China spy balloons. The fragile beginnings of Middle East peace are gone. Iran. Threatening Israel while Hamas still holds US hostages. Red Sea shipping shut down by the Houthis. The hits just keep on coming.

I’m not sure I can come up with anything that looks like foreign police success for this administration. It’s pretty bad when your track record is literally zero after almost four years. At this point, I think you could randomly pick people out of the phone book and they’d do a better job. This administration, and the “deep state” for that matter, has become the living embodiment of the Peter Principle – “people in a hierarchy tend to rise to a level of respective incompetence”. We’re living with a governmental bureaucracy ushered in by the Obama administration. Flotillas of idealistic “hope and change” Ivy League college kids who went straight from school to the Washington machine without any real world experience. Now years later, they’ve risen to the top and are leading us to disaster. At this point I think I’d prefer the evil Klaus Schwab Illuminati scenario – at least it’s explainable.

As Obama famously said, “elections have consequences”. He was more right than he could have imagined. We need to take the sharp objects away from the “adults in charge” soon, before things go really bad.

Motivation, Solving the wrong problem

Uncomfortable Truths

As a forewarning, I’m ’bout to lay down some uncomfortable truths that might make you a little squeamish. Ready? The nature of man is violence. Always has been, always will be. I know you don’t want to hear that, but it’s true. The problem is that the “civilized” West has forgotten this and I fear we’re going to be reminded of it at some point.

I can already hear the pink haired liberal arts students and latte sipping soccer moms denouncing me as a Neanderthal who probably lives in one of those fly-over states (I bet he owns guns too, they whisper). To not think that violence is at the very core of our being, ignores history. I suppose it’s understandable. Roughly three quarters of the population is under 60. World War Two, Vietnam, Korea, the Ku Klux Klan… are already ancient issues in history books. Almost fifty percent of the population is under 40, which means they were likely brought up in the modern, woke education system. A system that tells children that our most pressing issue is climate change and that white colonizers are the most dangerous people on the planet.

I get it. We have been blessed with a level of security unimaginable in most of the world for the last fifty years. When you’re blessed with financial and physical security it’s easy to make the plight of the spotted owl your top priority. I don’t think that’s going to last much longer.

Man is a violent and brutal animal. The history of the world is built on conquest. From the Romans to the Vikings, and up to our own settlement of the nation – it was done through violent conquering of existing people. Mankind has always understood this and knew that violence was kept at bay by… violence. If you tolerate criminals, you’re going to get more crime. If you don’t prepare for invasion, you’re going to get invaded. These are not hard concepts to grasp.

But apparently they are. Somewhere along the line we decided that prioritizing clean energy electric buses was more important than having cops on the street. We decided that prosecuting criminals and keeping them in jail was bad for their self-esteem. And the results have been predictable. I guess we’re not allowed to talk about it because of race or DEI or something. But hey, if nothing else the New York City police department now has a killer new dance team. All cities should follow their lead. Just imagine, we can have a nationwide police dance-off!

And while police departments are dancing and criminals are looting stores at will, we have a literal invasion happening at our border. We don’t even pretend anymore. I guess as a nation we simply decided that everyone on the planet is welcome to come. No worries, we’ll just print more money to take care of all our wonderful new residents. What could possibly go wrong?

Well clearly there’s about a thousand things on the list that could go wrong, but number one… October 7th. You know, that little incident in Israel. The savage, barbaric nature of that attack IS the true nature of man. That is what historically happened when towns were invaded. Do you think the Romans took care to spare civilians when they conquered a city? What do you think the aftermath of the various crusades looked like? When one group hates another, or needs resources, all bets are off. Mankind will do some truly horrible things to one another.

I know that here in the West we don’t want to think of such things. We’re more civilized than that. We’ve evolved. Besides, those are problems for over there. We’re untouchable.

Lest we forget, 19 people carried out 9/11. We’re currently at 7.5 million people who have streamed across our border in the last three years. You don’t think out of all those people there are another 19, or a thousand, or ten thousand who wish us harm? You’re a fool if you don’t.

The Islamic Caliphate is real. They hate us and Israel with a passion. Do you think that went away when we left Afghanistan? Silly rabbit. October 7th? It’s going to happen here, mark my words. Meanwhile, there’s nothing to stop the cartels from simply moving in and taking over US cities mob-style.

Mankind hasn’t changed. Weakness begets violence. Israel got complacent and worried about left-wing public opinion. Hamas, prompted by the Islamic State, took advantage. And given a chance, they’ll do it again. And because of that, Israel is doing the right thing in their response.

Historically when you invaded a city, you killed all the fighting age males, kept the children, and sold off the women as slaves. Why? Because if you didn’t, they’d come back and invade you in retaliation. Do you really think things are different today? Wars and conflicts end when the enemy has lost the ability to continue. It’s not pretty, but if Israel doesn’t end Hamas completely… they’ll be right back at the same place in a few years.

And the same holds true for us. If we don’t end the nonsense at the border and sort out who’s here, we’ll be right back in the Global War on Terror. We’re going to suffer a 9/11 on steroids, we’ll respond with a bombardment of Iran, and then we’re off to the races.

I know it’s not fashionable to say, but man is violent. Roman Emperor Hadrian first said “peace through strength or, failing that, peace through threat.” Reagan repeated it in the 1980’s. It was true then and it’s true today. It holds true for crime in the streets as well as keeping the Mongol hordes at bay. The latte sipping leftists are going to learn it one way or another.

History is a bitch, ’cause it just keeps repeating.

Government, Politics

I’ll Take Chaos For $200, Alex

I don’t know what the next couple of years will look like exactly, but I am sure of one thing. It’s going to be a bit… spicy. When the Deep State and DNC managed to secure the win during the last presidential election I was disappointed. Yes, I voted for the bad orange man over the dementia patient in the basement. What’s funny is that although I preferred team elephant, I honestly didn’t think it would make that much difference. It’s a uni-party after all. I figured a bit more spending on climate change, maybe a tax hike here and there. Bad, but not the end of the world. Never in a million years would I have thought things would go downhill so fast. We’re now a bit more than half a year away from the next election purchasing event and it feels like this one is going to be a doozy.

We are going to see some serious chaos no matter what the outcome is. At the moment the bad orange man looks to be the RNC nominee. That’s not a guarantee however – he has some serious fundraising and legal issues to overcome between now and then. If he’s taken out by some Trumped up charge (see what I did there?), expect the MAGA crowd to lose their mind. Nothing healthy for the country will come out of that.

Over on team donkey, the basement dwelling dementia patient now has full blow Alzheimer’s. It’s weekend at Bernies every day. I’m sure team Obama thought they’d be able to keep him propped up for another four years, but that looks unlikely now. So now the DNC needs to figure out how to replace him and not piss off the woke progressive crowd when they bypass Kamala. That ain’t gunna be pretty.

On November 6th, when the dust settles and the lawyers and consultants have all been paid off, we’ll see who was able to purchase the most votes. Regardless of who wins, 2025 is going to be challenging. If Trump wins, whoooo boy hold on to your hat. Trump was a walking, talking chaos factory his first term. The left hates him with the power of a thousand suns. Lest you not forget, there were riots in the streets when he won the first time. Women in pussy hats marched and Madonna talked about blowing up the White House. How do you think it’s going to go this time? You think the left was apoplectic when Trump asked why more people from “shithole countries” should be allowed into the U.S… just wait until he starts talking about mass deportations.

And if the left wins, MAGA going to be big time mad. I’m not sure they’ll take it very well this time ’round. The DNC will control the House, Senate, and the executive office. With slick Gavin Newsom as president (or better yet, Michelle), you’re going to see team Obama’s strategy for destroying America on steroids. I predict job one will be to pull a Jeffery Epstein on Elon and X in the name of preserving our democracy. The Bureau of Misinformation will be out in full force, ready to shut down the bank accounts of any of you silly rednecks who post unflattering comments about the regime.

And if all that wasn’t adventure enough, the experts and adults in the room have managed to foster a level of global instability that’s downright frightening. The odds of a world wide shooting war seem to go up daily. For reasons known only to the Military Industrial Complex, we seem hellbent on provoking a nuclear exchange with Russia. China is sitting by, licking its chops as it waits to see what stupidity we can demonstrate. Meanwhile, the Middle East is poised for even more instability (if that’s even possible). Fun times!

I’m not sure we’re in a position to step back from all this even if we wanted to. I’m not sure a presidential candidate exists that could mollify both the left and the right, while simultaneously being able to fight back against the Deep State and the war mongers. We find ourselves in a pickle. A sticky wicket. A circular firing squad of our own making.

It feels like the crisis portion of the Fourth Turning is going to come to a head next year one way or another.

So what to do about it? I’m inclined to say nothing. Get some popcorn, sit back, and wait for the fireworks. At this point the mechanisms are in motion and the train has left the station. Shit is going down one way or another. The Deep State. The Military Industrial Complex. The Enterprise. Whatever you want to call it, they’re in the drivers seat. You and I are just along for the ride.

Personally, I’d like to see President Orange Man along with VP Vivek doing some serious battle against the forces of evil. Trump is kinda of hilarious and if we’re going to witness Ragnarök, we might as well have some humor.

Only one thing is guaranteed… it’s going to get spicy.

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.

Daily Life, Motivation, woke

Mr Rogers Neighborhood

As we sit back and watch the various wars kicking off across the globe, it’s tempting to wonder how we got here? The best summary I’ve seen so far was from a meme on Twitter (X). It said in reference to the Hamas attack – all of this could have been prevented if Israel had just put “Gun Free Zone” signs up near the border. I’ll pause a minute while you ponder that.

Normal people want to live in a Mr Rogers idealistic neighborhood. Prosperity helps foster that dream. What people don’t want to talk about is the other side of the coin – A polite society can only exist with the threat of consequences for bad behavior. We’d like to think we can achieve a kumbaya, crunchy granola world if everyone would just practice being nice. That unfortunately ignores the entirety of human existence.

Until very recently, a polite society existed only because of the threat of having your skull split was the consequence of bad behavior. Nowadays we worry more about harming peoples self-esteem than deterring them from crime. I think of this every time I see the ridiculous climate protestors who block streets and glue themselves to paintings in museums. The only thing that will happen to them is they’ll be peacefully arrested and immediately released, thus achieving their protester merit badge. They make the news and get their idiotic message out.

Now, if angry mobs of blocked motorists started dragging them by their hair to the curb and giving them a bit of a pummeling… they might start thinking twice about how to get their message across. Now I’m not advocating for violence, but without consequences for your actions you can do whatever you want.

Take Israel for example. They are surrounded by nations that openly declare the desire to wipe them off the map. They have been attacked on the regular, from all sides, for 70+ years. And every time they punch back the collective world screeches for a “proportional response”. Uhm, if you haven’t been much of a student of history, here’s a dirty little secret – a disproportionate response is how you end wars. Otherwise your enemy simply regroups and attacks again. see Gaza for the last 20 years

Hamas, PLO, Hezbollah, et al., have chosen time and time and time again to be feral animals. They have decided that the destruction of Israel is more important than trying to normalize relations and build some sort of society for their people. I suspect Hamas finally pushed the envelope a bit too far this time. As the old saying goes, if ye fuckith around, ye shall findith out. If Israel doesn’t end them, it’s only going to happen again as soon as they regroup. Let’s just hope their neighbors to the north sit this one out. I’m not sure we can put the genie back in the bottle if that conflict pops off.

My point? Much of “civilized” society today has decided that worrying about hurting someone’s feelings is more important than maintaining a functional community. As you watch brazen, unchecked looting and stealing from your local Walmart, ask yourself “how’s that working out?” When glitzy Hollywood has to be told don’t risk wearing jewelry when walking around because the police can’t/won’t do anything about crime… that’s a sign things have gone sideways. Much of Europe probably secretly regrets allowing unchecked migration. Sweden now has 20+ areas that are classified by the police as “no go” areas due to crime and rape. The US is just barely starting to wake up to the consequences of allowing the cartels to control our border. It’s hard not to laugh at the Mayor of New York realizing that his sanctuary city policies aren’t working out so well.

We’re living in some strange times. Everything seems a bit upside down and opposite. I sometimes wonder how far off we are from retreating back to tribal villages that band together to protect themselves and maintain their own customs and beliefs. ’cause that whole one world globalist thing isn’t panning out so well. But that’s a little Mad Max apocalyptic I suppose. I blame it on my blocked eardrums from a dive trip last week. I can’t hear anything and it’s making me grumpy.

But then again any society, when pushed hard enough, will eventually lash out. As H.L. Mencken once wrote:

“Every normal man must be tempted, at times, to spit on his hands, hoist the black flag, and begin slitting throats.”

Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

Lesser Of Two Evils

I get it. Everyone thinks Russia is evil. Putin is a monster that launched a war that has resulted in massive loss of life. I think the reasons he did it are complicated and will be debated for years, but implementing a blitzkrieg march straight through to the Netherlands is not one of the reasons. You’re quite naïve if you think that was the ultimate goal. You can debate all you want about good vs. evil, ulterior motives, blah, blah, blah… What’s important is – here we are. Now what?

How does this play out? The war hawks claim we’ll support Ukraine to the end. So what does that look like? Russia is not going to suddenly say sorry and pull back to pre-war borders. Therefore, the only way to force Russia back East is to inflict the complete and total annihilation of the Russian military.

Given that, I have an honest question:

Can anyone give a plausible scenario in which that happens? I’m honestly interested in hearing from someone who believes that’s possible.

Ukrainian losses are in the ~300,000 range, with another 100,000 or so wounded. Kill ratios are 8-15:1 depending on the region. Russia has decimated Ukrainian equipment and artillery. Ukraine has run out of fighting age males. They are snatching people off the streets and conscripting them into the military. They’re now taking women and old men. They’re threatening anyone who fled the country with arrest and forfeiture of their passport/citizenship if they don’t come back to fight.

Russia currently has about 750,000 men in theater, with plans to ramp up to 1.2 million. They have complete air superiority. They have very sophisticated aerial/drone and artillery targeting capability. They’ve ramped up their wartime production of shells, missiles, and ammo to the point they can fire many hundreds per day without fear of running out. They’ve built three rings of massive concrete defensive positions. There are hundreds of thousands of mines to cross before you even get to their defensive lines.

Please tell me how Ukraine defeats that?

The answer is they can’t. It would take the entirety of the US military plus NATO forces to attempt to defeat them. That would be literal world war three. The problem with that scenario is that Russia will not go quietly. I guarantee they’ll use tactical nuclear strikes along the western border of Ukraine before they allow NATO forces to advance further towards Russia. And we can all guess where that would lead.

So now what? Please, someone give me a scenario in which this plays out different if we keep going down our current path.

At this point it doesn’t matter any more if you think what Russia did was right or wrong. It has to stop, and soon. The longer this goes the closer we get to the nightmare scenario. I see our administration and virtually the entire congress gleefully speeding down this path with zero plausible ideas on how it ends.

I don’t know how we convince our leaders that what they’re doing is madness. They don’t listen to the citizenry and the press is in lockstep with these fools. How do we stop this?

I get it. Russia bad, Ukraine good. I don’t like what happened any more than the next guy, but I’m starting to think that if you have any interest in visiting Europe you may want to do it soon. It may be a smoldering crater before too long.

Government

I Don’t Understand

I am not a student of history, geopolitics, or economics. I confess that I have about a 7th grade grasp of world events most of the time. Therefore, I am being sincere when I say that I need someone to explain something to me like I was a child. Speak slowly and in simple language. No platitudes, vague historical references, or moral right vs. wrong inferences. I’m looking for a clear, fact-based argument. Ready?

Why is it in the United States strategic interest to fully fund, arm, and (eventually) defend Ukraine?

What I find when I search on this subject is mostly vague arm waving and teeth gnashing about “we can’t let naked aggression like this go unchecked”, or “if we don’t stop Russia here and push them back, they’ll soon be rolling into Poland”. There’s plenty of moral justifications thrown out – “we can’t stand by and let innocent civilians be slaughtered”, or the WWII reference of “we stood by when Germany began occupying other countries, we can’t let that happen again”. All of those things may be true. But none of them are an argument for why the US needs to be the one to solve it.

This is not a defense of Russia’s actions. For a variety of reasons, Russia made the strategic choice to invade another country. War is awful and never leads to a good outcome for anyone involved. Period. You can hate Russia all you want for their decision… but it doesn’t change the fact that they did it. So, now what?

The US has committed upwards of $60 billion dollars, with future pledges bringing the total to over $100 billion. We’ve depleted our own stockpiles of military hardware so we can send it to Ukraine. We have troops on the ground in-country, we’re providing training, intelligence, targeting, and continue to push the envelope with more and more advanced military technology. We seem to be doing everything possible to poke the Russian bear and provoke an escalation. Why? Why is all this in our interest?

So back to my child-like questions:

  • Ukraine is not a NATO member, nor has it been a historical ally. Why does the US need to be the one to defend them?
  • Russia has not attacked a fellow NATO member, so you can’t claim we’re fulfilling our article 5 duties. Why are we there?
  • If the European countries are feeling threatened… shouldn’t that be primarily a European problem to solve?
  • Given that any future threat is to Europe, shouldn’t the vast majority of aid be coming from European countries?
  • Given that we’re $32+ trillion in debt and have a whole host of issues of our own to solve, we do we need to be sending $100 billion to Ukraine?
  • We just ended (badly) a 20-year war that cost us $5+ trillion. Why do we need to engage in another war?
  • And finally… how is it in our strategic interests to provoke Russia to the brink of a nuclear exchange?

Here’s something nobody wants to talk about. Without US support, Russia would have pretty quickly taken a large portion of Ukrainian territory. Whether that is good or bad is subject for another discussion. Regardless, we enabled Ukraine to push back sufficiently enough that this war will now go on for a very long time. No matter who wins, the end outcome will be that Ukraine will be left a smoking heap of ash. There will be nothing left. Its infrastructure will be completely destroyed. Its agricultural, drilling, and mining exports are already gone. As we approach spring, Russia will accelerate its targeting of all power infrastructure, water, sewer, and industrial capacity. They will turn Ukraine into a wasteland and force a mass exodus of refugees. Whatever is left of the population will be facing actual famine. That’s reality.

Do you really think Russia is suddenly going to say, “whoops, my bad. Sorry about that”. Is Russia going to decide tomorrow to just pull back with its tail between its legs? Doubtful. The US has done everything possible to accelerate and prolong this war. Now what? When Russia sends 300,000 troops over the border this summer, what are we going to do? Ukraine is rapidly running out of fighting age males to throw at the problem. This is why they need more and more advanced battlefield tools – they can no longer win with just infantry. Are US ground troops and air cover next?

If Russia loses a couple hundred thousand troops by next fall, don’t you think battlefield nukes are a realistic option for them? Then what do we do?

None of this makes sense to me. I really need someone to explain to me in simple terms, why it is in the United States strategic interest to own this mess?

P.S. The actual answer to all of this of course, is the military industrial complex. We want to sell weapons. That’s it. It’s that simple. Sorry.