Tag: prepping

Government

You’re On Your Own

As of today we’re still reading about the devastating impacts of hurricane Helene. Tonight another monster hurricane, Milton, is going to slam into Florida. It’s the annual reminder that no matter where you live, those who prepare are generally better off than those who don’t. It turns out, almost exactly a year ago I wrote down a few thoughts on preparedness. Nothing life changing… just encouragement to be ready. As I re-read what I wrote, I was reminded of a saying I like.

Expect to self rescue. No one is coming.

What I like about that saying is that it applies to virtually everything – not just natural disasters. Unless you are very fortunate in life, nobody is coming to save you. It’s up to you to figure out your path to success. Perhaps there’s a metaphor somewhere in there about our current generation? Assumption that there’s always a safety net (mommy and daddy?) has made us soft.

Anyway, what got me started down this train of thought is a podcast I listened to yesterday. The guest asserted that for the most part, the federal government has collapsed. Not will collapse or might collapse – it has collapsed.

Americans of the modern era have been conditioned to blindly believe in “the experts”. Of course the scientists are right – they’re scientists for gods sake. The economists and the fed know best how to manage the economy. The foreign policy experts at the state department know best how to manage diplomacy and conflict management. The EPA, the NIH, department of education, FEMA, DOE, and on and on and on… Stay in your lane plebeian and let the experts manage things.

Except that for the last 30+ years the experts have demonstrated nothing but a cascading series of incompetent fuck ups. Immigration policy, foreign policy, Afghanistan, Iraq, the ’08 financial crisis, Covid, energy policy, our current inflation, the sad state of our military, the collapse of our education system, the green energy boondoggle… it goes on indefinitely. Please – I defy you to name anything the federal government does exceedingly well and under budget.

Hurricane Helene was the icing on the cake. The federal governments response has been so pathetic it’s embarrassing. FEMA has one job. And they’ve completely failed. Yesterday people were posting that the government helpfully sent them a pallet of electric chainsaws – to an area with no power. That is the perfect representation of our federal government.

With the avalanche of evidence available today that is flashing in giant red neon lights DANGER, DANGER, DANGER – if you still have any faith in our current federal government I’m honestly speechless. I suppose every society needs a certain number of sheep and cannon fodder.

Is it too late to change course? Can the impending collapse be stopped? I don’t know. There is a movement brewing. People are sick of the bullshit. Tired of the lies. Exhausted by the nonstop woke and politically correct crap. Mainstream media is failing. Twitter/X, alternative news sources, and long form podcasts are becoming the dominant information source. Even low viewership podcasts nobody has heard of have more viewers than the average CNN hour.

I hope that people are waking up to the fact that this election is about trying to jam a stick into the spinning spokes of a massive federal government intent on consuming everything in its path. The image consultants and media manipulators (of both parties) want you to think it’s about whatever pet social cause is the flavor of the month. Don’t take the bait.

If we don’t get some sort of disruptor into the executive office soon, it’s game over. Read up on the end of the Roman Empire. Is Trump the great disruptor? Doubtful based upon his first go-round. But… if he can resist all the bad personnel advice this time and get a few good people in place, maybe he can set the stage for whoever the next/real disruptor might be. If the machine has its way and manages to insert Kamala as the next mindless puppet… well, I’m not sure things are recoverable without pitchforks, tar and feathers. Do a little peruse through history to see how that unfolds.

Expect to self rescue. No one is coming. Deep down, you know it’s true. The sooner you acknowledge it and prepare, both in physical preparedness and mental acceptance of how dangerous the federal government has become, the better chance we all have of saving the republic for future generations.

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.

Daily Life

I Wasn’t Prepared

Waaaay back, in another life, I was on a search and rescue team. I’m pretty sure every rescue we went out on was for hikers who were completely unprepared. They didn’t tell anyone where they were going. They didn’t bring any gear or clothing appropriate to the situation. They didn’t have a map. 98% of the time these folks would have been just fine. But every once in a while, the stars lined up and the gods decided to mix things up. A sprained ankle. Ran out of water. Took the wrong trail. The weather took a nasty turn. Nightfall came faster than expected. Suddenly these hapless hikers would be facing a cold overnight stay and cell phones that were dead or out of range. Being better prepared doesn’t guarantee you’ll stay out of trouble. But when trouble comes knocking, you’ll have a better chance of a good outcome.

As you can imagine, I’d generally go a bit overboard with my survival prep back in those days. It would have been a tad embarrassing for a search and rescue guy to get lost and have to be rescued. The team had plenty of gear standards and constantly did pack inspections to ensure everyone was squared away. As the training officer, I had to lead by example so even a simple hour-long hike somewhere required taking a ridiculous amount of gear.

Now that I’m back in the real world and many years removed from those days, my survival prep is considerably scaled back. My approach is to think about the worst possible scenario and make sure I can survive that. I probably get a bit too casual about it at times, much to Mrs Troutdog’s consternation, but I generally believe I’m a pretty safe outdoorsman. (knock on wood)

Yesterday I pulled my smaller dual-sport motorcycle out of winter hibernation and got ready for its first ride of the season. I had to put the battery back in and decided it would be wise to use the tools I carry on the bike, just to be sure I could do it in the field if I had to. Look at how smart I am!

I pulled the tool roll out, unfolded it and… there was almost nothing in it. The wrenches I had were the wrong size for the bike. No Allen keys. The butt of a screwdriver but no bits. What the hell? I have no idea what happened. I honestly couldn’t remember if I’d had everything in there at one time and then cannibalized it for something else? Maybe I’d started putting a tool kit together and then forgot it wasn’t done? Perhaps the sock stealing gremlin snuck into the garage and stole my tools?

Regardless, I’ve been riding around without the ability to fix anything. Had something happened out on the trail I couldn’t have done anything other than hike out. I couldn’t even have changed a tube if I got a puncture. I got lucky.

So now I’m putting together a proper tool kit for that bike. Seeing that it’s spring, it’s a perfect time to go through all my gear and make sure everything is dialed in. Bikes, motorcycles, hiking gear, trail running, fishing stuff. I should probably also go through my vehicle survival bag and repair kit.

How crazy do you need to go with prepping? I think it depends on your skillset for that activity. But generally, I think the right attitude to adopt is: Assume no one is coming. Expect to self-rescue and prepare accordingly.

We all need a reminder from time to time that mechanical things can and do break down. Shit happens. Fortunately my reminder came while I was still in the garage.

Just sit right back and you’ll hear a tale,
A tale of a fateful trip
That started from this tropic port
Aboard this tiny ship.

The mate was a mighty sailing man,
The skipper brave and sure.
Five passengers set sail that day
For a three hour tour, a three hour tour.

The weather started getting rough,
The tiny ship was tossed,
If not for the courage of the fearless crew
The Minnow would be lost, the Minnow would be lost.

The ship set ground on the shore of this uncharted desert isle
With Gilligan
The Skipper too,
The millionaire and his wife,
The movie star
The Professor and Mary Ann,*
Here on Gilligan’s Isle.

Cool, Daily Life, Health

I Don’t Know The Answer
  • The one thing that stands out for me about this moment in history is that nobody knows who to listen to. There’s approximately 1.27 million opinions, from experts to hucksters, on every single subject. How is the average person supposed to figure out the right answer about anything? For example, based upon some random crap I read on the internet I decided it wouldn’t be a bad thing to start adding vitamin D3 and Zinc to my system. But how much? The dosage on the bottle says 2,000 iu a day. One doctor I read says you need at least 20,000 a day. Another says start with 10,000 a day for two weeks and then 5,000 iu daily as maintenance. How are you supposed to know? I think this quote from Eric Weinstein says it all. He’s probably one of the smartest humans on the planet. PhD in mathematical physics, managing director of Thiel Capital, and founder of the intellectual dark web… “I have not been able to understand our experts explaining what is going on with either the virus, its origins, our masks, our vaccines, or vaccine alternatives. I admit it: I totally can’t grasp our experts on COVID.” If he can’t figure it out, how are the rest of us supposed to? What a mess.

  • Our supply chain is in crisis mode. I’m not sure people fully grasp how bad the current scenario is. Literally every product and component we consume is at risk. Car dealership lots are empty. Appliances can’t be found. Bike shops are out of bike tubes and tires. A local pizza shop owner is wrapping to-go pizza in foil because he can’t get cardboard boxes. He *thinks* he’ll survive the winter because he pre-purchased flour and other baking supplies. The LA and Long Beach ports are seeing record congestion. Currently there are 97 massive cargo ships anchored offshore, waiting for a slot to unload. Retailers are panicking about the Christmas shopping season, as they may have empty shelves. If manufacturing components aren’t available, layoffs start and businesses go under. Will things straighten themselves out eventually? Hopefully. But it wouldn’t take much to knock down this house of cards. Meanwhile, I went to Costco the other day. Every single cart I saw was loaded up with the ginormous package of toilet paper and paper towels. They are now back to limiting purchase to one per customer. I still don’t understand what it is about hoarding toilet paper… but better go get you some.

  • I have an acquaintance who knows I briefly contemplated buying a drone. He frequently sends me drone related info and shares stories of how much he enjoys his. I still don’t know that I could justify buying one. I worry that it will be one of those purchases that you use a bunch for a while and then it would never come out of the case again. I think I’d have to be seriously making videos before I’d consider it again. What struck me the other day is that it turns out he uses his drone for still photography, not the standard flying videos. Beautiful landscape photos, just from a much different angle/perspective. I like that sort of thinking out of the box. It shows that just when you think everything in photography (or any other art form) has been done, someone comes along and thinks about things differently.


  • Semi related to the supply chain crisis, but for different reasons… If you are not into shooting sports you may not realize this, but guns and ammo are currently non-existent. Ammo that I used to buy for $300 a case is now $1,500 a case in the rare occasion you can actually find it. I was at a large sporting goods store the other day and their gun cases were empty. The manager said that they get 5-7 guns in a day, and they sell them the same day. The population is worried. Gun and ammo sales spike with unrest and uncertainty. I’ve never seen this level of shortages before. I’m not entirely sure what it means… but it’s probably not a good sign.

  • I recently watched a MasterClass by Tom Morello, the guitarist for Rage Against the Machine. I’m not a guitar player, but I thoroughly enjoyed the behind the scenes look at how the songs were created, his influences, and what it’s like to be a performer. I’d encourage giving it watch, even if that sort of music isn’t your cup ‘o tea.

Song of the day: Knife Party & Tom Morello – Battle Sirens (Live Version)