Tag: middle east

Government, Politics

What Comes Next?

I’ll admit, I’m a little worried at the current state of world affairs. My unease was made worse by a book I just finished. It’s called “Nuclear War: A Scenario” by investigative reporter Annie Jacobsen. I highly recommend it. It describes step by step exactly what happens in a nuclear exchange, from how the nuclear football works, to what the blast damage looks like. The TLDR is… your best bet is to be at ground zero and have it all over instantly. Anything else is just prolonged suffering. Nobody wins.

My bigger takeaway from the book is how fragile the entire system is. It’s truly frightening how little of a misjudgment it would take to kick the whole thing off. If we (or Russia or China) detect what we think is a nuclear warhead being launched, the president has six minutes to decide what to do. SIX MINUTES. And when you look at the shuffling dementia patient who currently holds the keys… I’m not filled with confidence at the decision making ability.

Now fast forward to today. Iran launched a massive strike against Israel. Fortunately all except seven of the missiles and drones were shot down. But now we face the million dollar question – now what?

Was this just stupid chest thumping by Iran so they can reclaim their manhood after their general was liquified by an Israeli missile in retaliation for Oct 7? It sort of looks like that since what they launched was old, slow, and we’ve known it was coming for a week now. If that was the case, shouldn’t both sides simply retreat back to their corners and maintain the status quo? Is it worth kicking off a full scale regional war that has the potential of escalating to something much worse?

But what if it was something else? What if it was a probe to judge the response? The US/UK/Israel basically just showed Iran (and anyone else watching) exactly what our response times are, how we respond, where each defensive launch point is, and how effective the anti-missile defense is. How many more iron dome and arrow missiles do we and Israel have remaining? Seems like a worthwhile exercise to go through if you don’t fear any real retaliation.

Let’s be real. The goal is to drive the Jews into the sea. Always has been, always will. The players may change, but the desire to eradicate Israel never ends. There is no amount of appeasement that is going to fix this. October 7th was a stark reminder. The moment Israel lets its guard down, even for a moment, the invading hoards will swarm intent on massacre. You know it, and I know it. If Iran thinks it can get away with an even bigger strike with minimal consequences, they’ll do it and you know it to be true. So what do we do?

My gut says it’s time to have a joint US/UK/Israel strike against Iran to completely devastate their infrastructure and economy. Ensure their nuclear weapon development programs are destroyed. Make sure they have zero economic power. It’s not like they’re going to hate us any more than they already do. While we’re at it, let’s wrest control back of the Red Sea shipping lanes. Oh, and how about we put some pressure on our “allies” like Qatar to stop harboring Hamas leadership? Help Israel finish cleaning out Hamas and start building bigger and better walls around Gaza and the West Bank. While we’re at it, southern Lebanon and Hezbollah should probably get a taste of real retribution. No more firing rockets into civilian homes with impunity.

Sometimes, a good ass kicking is the only way to stop a bully.

All fine and dandy, except… I’m not sure we can put that genie back in the bottle once it’s out. And color me skeptical, but I have zero faith in our “leaders” to make good decisions. Would Russia step in? Would China take this opportunity to take Taiwan? Do we really want to be mired in another forever war in the Middle East? What a mess.

It’s clear that our “experts”, both past and present, pretty much don’t know doodly-squat. Their ability to predict outcomes and consequences leave much to be desired. Like I said in the beginning, it wouldn’t take much for things to go horribly wrong. After all, WWI was started after some archduke was assassinated. The wrong missile flys over the wrong airspace and… boom. The end.

It’s a sobering thought. It’s a very scary time. Do we encourage everyone to step back, or do we go thump some heads before things get worse? Glad I’m not making the decisions. I just wish I had more faith in those who are.

Elections have consequences.

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.