Tag: Fourth Turning

Government, Politics

I’ll Take Chaos For $200, Alex

I don’t know what the next couple of years will look like exactly, but I am sure of one thing. It’s going to be a bit… spicy. When the Deep State and DNC managed to secure the win during the last presidential election I was disappointed. Yes, I voted for the bad orange man over the dementia patient in the basement. What’s funny is that although I preferred team elephant, I honestly didn’t think it would make that much difference. It’s a uni-party after all. I figured a bit more spending on climate change, maybe a tax hike here and there. Bad, but not the end of the world. Never in a million years would I have thought things would go downhill so fast. We’re now a bit more than half a year away from the next election purchasing event and it feels like this one is going to be a doozy.

We are going to see some serious chaos no matter what the outcome is. At the moment the bad orange man looks to be the RNC nominee. That’s not a guarantee however – he has some serious fundraising and legal issues to overcome between now and then. If he’s taken out by some Trumped up charge (see what I did there?), expect the MAGA crowd to lose their mind. Nothing healthy for the country will come out of that.

Over on team donkey, the basement dwelling dementia patient now has full blow Alzheimer’s. It’s weekend at Bernies every day. I’m sure team Obama thought they’d be able to keep him propped up for another four years, but that looks unlikely now. So now the DNC needs to figure out how to replace him and not piss off the woke progressive crowd when they bypass Kamala. That ain’t gunna be pretty.

On November 6th, when the dust settles and the lawyers and consultants have all been paid off, we’ll see who was able to purchase the most votes. Regardless of who wins, 2025 is going to be challenging. If Trump wins, whoooo boy hold on to your hat. Trump was a walking, talking chaos factory his first term. The left hates him with the power of a thousand suns. Lest you not forget, there were riots in the streets when he won the first time. Women in pussy hats marched and Madonna talked about blowing up the White House. How do you think it’s going to go this time? You think the left was apoplectic when Trump asked why more people from “shithole countries” should be allowed into the U.S… just wait until he starts talking about mass deportations.

And if the left wins, MAGA going to be big time mad. I’m not sure they’ll take it very well this time ’round. The DNC will control the House, Senate, and the executive office. With slick Gavin Newsom as president (or better yet, Michelle), you’re going to see team Obama’s strategy for destroying America on steroids. I predict job one will be to pull a Jeffery Epstein on Elon and X in the name of preserving our democracy. The Bureau of Misinformation will be out in full force, ready to shut down the bank accounts of any of you silly rednecks who post unflattering comments about the regime.

And if all that wasn’t adventure enough, the experts and adults in the room have managed to foster a level of global instability that’s downright frightening. The odds of a world wide shooting war seem to go up daily. For reasons known only to the Military Industrial Complex, we seem hellbent on provoking a nuclear exchange with Russia. China is sitting by, licking its chops as it waits to see what stupidity we can demonstrate. Meanwhile, the Middle East is poised for even more instability (if that’s even possible). Fun times!

I’m not sure we’re in a position to step back from all this even if we wanted to. I’m not sure a presidential candidate exists that could mollify both the left and the right, while simultaneously being able to fight back against the Deep State and the war mongers. We find ourselves in a pickle. A sticky wicket. A circular firing squad of our own making.

It feels like the crisis portion of the Fourth Turning is going to come to a head next year one way or another.

So what to do about it? I’m inclined to say nothing. Get some popcorn, sit back, and wait for the fireworks. At this point the mechanisms are in motion and the train has left the station. Shit is going down one way or another. The Deep State. The Military Industrial Complex. The Enterprise. Whatever you want to call it, they’re in the drivers seat. You and I are just along for the ride.

Personally, I’d like to see President Orange Man along with VP Vivek doing some serious battle against the forces of evil. Trump is kinda of hilarious and if we’re going to witness Ragnarök, we might as well have some humor.

Only one thing is guaranteed… it’s going to get spicy.

Politics

I’m Worried

I’ve been worried before. Big world or national events happen and it’s natural to wonder what the fallout will be. But time moves on and things get back to normal. The worry dissipates. However, this moment in time feels different. There are so many things that have taken a turn for the worse, it’s hard to see a path back to stability. For the first time in my life, I’m actually concerned about where we’re headed. Not just a yell at the TV and vote the bums out concern, but an oh shit I can see things turning very dark kind of worry.

I’d been thinking about this in an abstract way as we’ve watched the events of the last few years unfold. But I just recently finished a book that really made me think. It’s called “The Fourth Turning“. It’s not new – it was published in 1997. I don’t remember how I stumbled upon it, but I devoured it. I read it on a Kindle, but wish I’d had a paperback version. It’s the kind of book you write in the margins, go back and re-read tables and charts, and place copious post-it notes.

In a nutshell, the premise is that human history runs in 80-year cycles that are broken up into roughly 20-year blocks, or “turnings”. What’s fascinating, and prophetic, is that the four turnings have repeated consistently from the beginning of human history. The four turnings are as follows:

  • High – A period of stability, growth, prosperity, and conformity
  • Awakening – a period of spiritual awakening and rebellion against conformity
  • Unraveling – a period in which individualism triumphs over crumbling institutions
  • Crisis – This is the fourth turning. War, revolution, and a profound loss of trust in institutions

The three recent crises in recent American history are the revolutionary war (1776), the civil war (1861), and WWII (1941). The last High period was the post WWII boom, the Awakening was the ’60’s to the early 80’s, and the Unraveling was 90’s to the 20’s. It certainly feels like we’re currently in or at the cusp of a new Crisis.

This was the author’s prediction in 1997:

“History is seasonal and winter is coming. The very survival of the nation will feel at stake. Sometime before the year 2025, America will pass through a great gate in history, commensurate with the American Revolution, Civil War, and the twin emergencies of the Great Depression in World War II. The risk of catastrophe will be high. The nation could erupt into insurrection or civil violence, crack up geographically or succumb to authoritarian rule. If there is a war, it is likely to be one of maximum risk and effort – in other words, a total war. Every Fourth Turning has registered an upward ratchet in the technology of destruction, and in mankind’s willingness to use it.”

(The Fourth Turning, Strauss & Howe, 1997)

It’s not hard to see that our ruling class has led us to an abyss – financially, politically, and culturally. Bonds, treasuries, and stocks are in free-fall. We’re $31 trillion dollars in debt. The debt service alone will soon be eating into any entitlement or discretionary spending. And yet, we keep printing and spending money like drunken sailors. Inflation is quickly wiping out any savings and wage growth for most of the population. We’re clearly in a recessionary period, probably heading towards stagflation.

Politically, the world is extremely dangerous right now. World powers are jockeying for position, power, and control over global resources. We’re probably the closest we’ve ever been to a tactical nuclear engagement. Meanwhile, the public face of our own government is an inept octogenarian with dementia. It’s unclear who’s actually running our government, but that cabal has mismanaged (either via utter incompetence or on purpose) virtually every aspect of the American fabric. While I wasn’t thrilled with the election of the current administration, never in a million years would I have thought things could unravel as fast as they have.

And finally, we’ve lost the culture that maintains a society. I honestly believe we’ve abandoned any sense of ourselves as “Americans“. We’ve been driven into loose groups separated by race, gender, and political ideology. Wokeness and the onslaught of Diversity, Inclusion, and Equity has driven a wedge into society that I don’t think we’ll recover from. There is no common ground anymore. Pick your camp and defend at all costs (via mean tweets and cancel culture).

We’re at the end of the Unraveling period. Society is divided, we’re at the brink of a financial collapse, and weak leadership invites global power shifts. The scope and scale of government overreach and authoritarianism we’ve seen the last few years really frightened me. Not so much that government would do it, but how willing many in society accepted it. The loss of trust in law enforcement, health services, and public officials is not recoverable.

So, what will the trigger be for the fourth turning? A nuclear move by Putin in Ukraine? The sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines? A new “George Floyd” moment that spawns civil unrest? A resurgence of Covid and new lockdowns? The next 2008 financial crisis? Food or energy shortages? All seem possible right now.

This country, and the world, just doesn’t feel stable right now. I honestly don’t remember feeling that before. I don’t know what the answer is. I’m not sure if there is one. History sure seems to be good at repeating itself. We’re just not very good at recognizing it. But maybe that book is hogwash? There’s no doubt that the danger of pattern matching is that it’s very easy to start seeing patterns everywhere to reinforce your desired outcome.

I just don’t know. But I’m worried.