Category: Politics

Government, Politics

The Rumors Are True

I know the rumor and gossip mill have been abuzz lately. I’m sorry I couldn’t be more public about this before, but certain preparations had to be in place first. Everything is now set – today is an exciting day! I’m proud to announce that that the rumors are true. I am declaring myself as a candidate for President of the United States. I will be running my campaign through the newly formed Contrarian Party.

I don’t take this responsibility lightly and I’m not doing this by choice. The feckless meat puppets who are currently running for office have left little choice. There is no single candidate who has both a vision for a future prosperous nation, AND the ability to win. Therefore I am willing to step in and fill the void.

Because I am not doing this by choice, and I am not a politician, I affirm that I will serve one term and one term only. The goal is to prime the pump and set the stage for future, more qualified leaders.

Four years is a very short time to make change on a national scale. I will not promise pithy feel-good platitudes that will never be achieved. My platform is very simple:

  1. The border is closed. Period. The United States will employ as many troops, walls, concertina wire, and surveillance methods as required to stop all illegal entry into the country. Force will be authorized, including deadly force, to arrest any individuals who manage to cross the border illegally. Individuals arrested will be immediately flow back to their country of origin.
  2. A five year moratorium on all work and student visas. The country needs time to figure out who’s here and what, if any, foreign skill sets are needed to enhance the American economy. Current, valid visas/green cards will be honored for the term of the visa.
  3. Current visa/green card holders who are caught demonstrating, protesting, or publishing anti-American statements will have their visas immediately canceled and will be deported. Immigrating to this country is a privilege, not a right. Citizens have the right to criticize their government, not guests.
  4. All cabinet agencies will reduce their budgets by 10% from a 2023 baseline in year one. Each successive year, an additional 5% reduction will be mandated, for a total reduction of 25% by the end of the term. The Department of Defense is excluded from this and will be reviewed individually.
  5. The federal student aid program will be canceled except for students attending local community colleges. The department of education’s budget will be further reduced by the equivalent amount. Individual States and Universities will have to fund student aid, if desired.
  6. The United States shall withhold all payments to the UN for the duration of my term.
  7. The United States will no longer be the largest funding source for NATO. The US contribution will be the average of all other contributors.
  8. All funding bills delivered to the Presidents desk will be vetoed unless they are single subject/item bills. The Executive branch will no longer support omnibus spending.
  9. A panel of primary non-commissioned military veterans will be formed to vet the current armed forces command structure and recommend changes in personnel and mission. Members of the panel must have served in a combat deployment. Former officers will be considered only with unanimous consent of the panel.
  10. The FBI Director, Deputy Director, and all department heads reporting to the Deputy or Associate Deputy directors will be terminated. All department heads below that level must re-interview for their jobs. A complete review of the departments mission will be conducted by an appropriate civilian panel, unaffiliated with the Justice Department.
  11. A panel of appropriate military, intelligence, and civilian experts will be formed to provide recommendations on disbanding the Department of Homeland Security. Those recommendations will be sent to congress.
  12. The Department of Energy will be tasked with creating a “moon-shot” program to implement nuclear energy facilities nationwide.
  13. Across all cabinet departments and agencies, any budgetary item associated with climate change or DEI will be canceled.
  14. In anticipation of future global disruption of trade routes, manufacturing, and supply, the Departments of Commerce, State, and Transportation shall submit a joint recommendation to protect and improve these areas to further strengthen our national economy and security.
  15. The US Immigration and Customs Enforcement, in partnership with the US border patrol shall be tasked with implementing a plan to deport persons in the country illegally and those who crossed illegally under asylum assertions. Asylum claims must be made from the country nearest to the refugee’s country of origin. Asylum seekers will not be granted entry into the US unless their claim is approved. The former funding contribution to the UN will be used to provide deported/displaced persons aid and shelter in their countries of origin or asylum.

I have no illusions – this will be difficult. The deep state will fight this with every tool they can find. There is a very real possibility that these changes will spark further division and chaos in this country. It is an unfortunate fact that we need to face this chaos if we hope to see a resurgence of the post-WWII American exceptionalism that built the economy that got us here. If we fail… well, I don’t think you’ll like where we’re headed.

So that’s it – that’s my campaign pitch. I’ll be putting together a GiveSendGo account if you’d like to contribute to my campaign.

A vote for Troutdog is a vote for a more prosperous future! (ok, I admit I need a better campaign slogan)

Government, Motivation, Politics

My Dog Hates Squirrels

Well, hate may be a strong word. Let’s just say he has a passion for trying to catch them. And technically it’s chipmunks, not squirrels. Here’s the thing – the odds of him actually getting one are extraordinarily low… but not zero. There’s always a chance that one chipmunk might be a little hung over from a huge chipmunk party the night before and be a little slow in making his escape. It is possible the hound might get one given the perfect circumstances. But what then? I don’t think the hound really knows why he chases them and he certainly doesn’t know what he’d do with it if he caught it.

And that is my weird roundabout way of describing what the Trump presidency was. Trump was a First Gen Disrupter. He had great instincts for stirring the pot and calling out the swamp. But I don’t think he actually thought he’d win. And just like the hound… when he caught that chipmunk he had no idea what to actually do with it.

And the results were predictable. Horrible personnel and hiring. He failed to implement most of his campaign promises. And very quickly he descended into pointless fighting with the swamp, the media, his own staff, etc… He started his campaign with the right ideas and a vision to be a Disrupter, then devolved into three years of petty name calling and personal grievances at the slings and arrows launched his way. He wasn’t ready when he actually caught the squirrel.

But that’s the nature of First Gen Disrupters. The system will resist at all costs. The system wants equilibrium. It takes that first Disrupter to start making waves. To his credit, Trump did that in a way that probably nobody else could.

Next came Elon Musk and Twitter/X. He’s a true Disrupter who severely shook up the status quo. I don’t think people appreciate yet the magnitude of what he did for free speech. How he exposed the massive governmental and corporate attempts at censorship. He’s a Disrupter who was willing to risk his personal fortune to unmask the swamp.

You’re now starting to see more mini-Disrupters appear. Matt Gatez and his unseating of the Speaker of the House. Vivek Ramasawmy at last nights debate calling out the GOP Chairwomen, GOP party as a whole, and the corrupt media. Will it make a difference? Doubtful. But it was the first time seeing bold alternative thoughts being expressed on a national stage. We need more mini-Disrupters questioning the swamp.

But what we really need is a Next-Gen Disrupter. Someone who will overturn the tables and start attacking the swamp in earnest. But most importantly, we need someone with the political experience and smarts to do it right. Someone who can’t be cancelled. Someone who doesn’t give a fuck and is willing to go full honey badger despite the personal attacks that will come.

I don’t know who that is. I don’t see it in any of our current batch of politicians. There doesn’t appear to be anyone sitting in the wings who can be that Disrupter.

If we don’t find that person soon… I fear for our republic. The swamp is doing everything possible to get back to equilibrium. The military industrial complex is in full swing and does not want to be interrupted. We no longer have a middle class. The elite ruling class is doing everything possible to rig the game.

If we don’t disrupt soon, the empire will fall. The elites will ride out the crash just fine. It’s the middle that will suffer. No chance at buying a home. Wages won’t remotely keep up with inflation. Skyrocketing fuel and food prices. Unchecked crime. Zero cohesion as Americans – just islands of tribal allegiances, divided on race and ethnicity. Scarcity of goods. A failed empire made up of kings and peasants.

Disruption isn’t fun. It’s messy. But as the saying goes, you need to break a few eggs to make an omelette.

If anyone knows of a Benevolent Disrupter, now is the time to give ’em a call. We don’t have much time left.

Politics

Nobody Wins

At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.

If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.

Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.

We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.

If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.

Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.

We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.

So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.

It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.

Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.

Maybe.

Government, Politics, Solving the wrong problem

Lesser Of Two Evils

I get it. Everyone thinks Russia is evil. Putin is a monster that launched a war that has resulted in massive loss of life. I think the reasons he did it are complicated and will be debated for years, but implementing a blitzkrieg march straight through to the Netherlands is not one of the reasons. You’re quite naïve if you think that was the ultimate goal. You can debate all you want about good vs. evil, ulterior motives, blah, blah, blah… What’s important is – here we are. Now what?

How does this play out? The war hawks claim we’ll support Ukraine to the end. So what does that look like? Russia is not going to suddenly say sorry and pull back to pre-war borders. Therefore, the only way to force Russia back East is to inflict the complete and total annihilation of the Russian military.

Given that, I have an honest question:

Can anyone give a plausible scenario in which that happens? I’m honestly interested in hearing from someone who believes that’s possible.

Ukrainian losses are in the ~300,000 range, with another 100,000 or so wounded. Kill ratios are 8-15:1 depending on the region. Russia has decimated Ukrainian equipment and artillery. Ukraine has run out of fighting age males. They are snatching people off the streets and conscripting them into the military. They’re now taking women and old men. They’re threatening anyone who fled the country with arrest and forfeiture of their passport/citizenship if they don’t come back to fight.

Russia currently has about 750,000 men in theater, with plans to ramp up to 1.2 million. They have complete air superiority. They have very sophisticated aerial/drone and artillery targeting capability. They’ve ramped up their wartime production of shells, missiles, and ammo to the point they can fire many hundreds per day without fear of running out. They’ve built three rings of massive concrete defensive positions. There are hundreds of thousands of mines to cross before you even get to their defensive lines.

Please tell me how Ukraine defeats that?

The answer is they can’t. It would take the entirety of the US military plus NATO forces to attempt to defeat them. That would be literal world war three. The problem with that scenario is that Russia will not go quietly. I guarantee they’ll use tactical nuclear strikes along the western border of Ukraine before they allow NATO forces to advance further towards Russia. And we can all guess where that would lead.

So now what? Please, someone give me a scenario in which this plays out different if we keep going down our current path.

At this point it doesn’t matter any more if you think what Russia did was right or wrong. It has to stop, and soon. The longer this goes the closer we get to the nightmare scenario. I see our administration and virtually the entire congress gleefully speeding down this path with zero plausible ideas on how it ends.

I don’t know how we convince our leaders that what they’re doing is madness. They don’t listen to the citizenry and the press is in lockstep with these fools. How do we stop this?

I get it. Russia bad, Ukraine good. I don’t like what happened any more than the next guy, but I’m starting to think that if you have any interest in visiting Europe you may want to do it soon. It may be a smoldering crater before too long.

Government, Politics

Same Story, Different Day

I’m pretty sure I write the same thing every four years. What happened last night was not a debate. A debate is someone putting forth their ideas/opinions and allowing others to present counter arguments in a way that allows the audience to judge who has the better argument. Last night was a real housewives screech-fest, where the goal is to be the best at shouting over everyone and having the best cutting one-liner moment.

According to Twitter/X, whoever your candidate is was the winner. Every pundit has declared that candidate X DESTROYED candidate Y. So the end result is that whoever you supported going in… is still who you support today. What a pointless waste of oxygen.

Here are my takeaways from the little bit I watched last night, combined with reading the “news/analysis” this morning:

  • Everyone except Vivek and DeSantis are Bush era neocon clones who will bumble us into WWIII.
  • Vivek is a Trump clone desperately trying to capture the Trump base.
  • DeSantis seemed the most “presidential”, but had a bad moment with the hand raising thing.
  • Christy is an unlikable anti-trump plant who needs to give up and go back to the buffet.
  • Pence loves the baby Jesus. Did I mention that he really really likes Jesus?
  • Haley is Jeb! Bush reincarnated.
  • I think there were two other guys there, who’s names I don’t know.
  • Trump is still the nominee.

It’s a sad state of affairs. We are at the end stage of the republic, given our current trajectory. And what is the focus the GOP thinks we need to hear about? Some viral song, abortion, and loyalty pledges to Trump. It’s not a winning combination.

The republican house will continue writing sternly worded letters. The senate is already a complete uni-party. The GOP will put forth a nominee who has zero chance of winning. President Newsom will transform this country in eight years to something truly unrecognizable.

All empires eventually come to an end. Fingers crossed ours simply slowly fades away rather than a more violent undoing. I still have some travel plans and landscaping to finish.

Government, Politics

Shoot At The King

As the old saying goes – if you take a shot at the king, you better not miss. Trump took his shot at the deep state and the DNC and missed badly. He thought his name, self-declared fame, and his money would protect him. He was wrong. Trump is done. This is not some MAGA rally where he can throw out pithy statements to thousands of fawning fans. There is a very real possibility he sees prison time. At the very least he’s tied up in very expensive legal quicksand for the next decade.

For all the Trump fanboys who disagree… where’s the judge who’s going to dismiss the indictments? Where’s the RNC who’s going to go to the mattresses to fight this? Trump has burned every bridge possible. What politician or businessman is going to commit their future to the Trump train at this point?

No, the sad reality is that Trump will spend whatever remains of his campaign time fundraising and then siphoning off most of that to his legal defense (he’s already doing that if you haven’t been paying attention. He has the money to repaint his private jet but not for legal fees apparently). He’s too much of a narcissist to admit he can’t win. He’d rather torpedo the rest of the party and play the martyr when Gov Newsom takes the oath of office.

Normally this would be a who cares moment. A politician overplayed his hand and is regulated to the ash heap of history. Happens all the time. But this feels different. This feels dangerous.

The near unchecked power of the deep state and the DNC is frightening. The RNC continues to demonstrate we have a Defacto uni-party. Oh sure, there’s a few republicans that write sternly worded letters but that’s simply throwing spitballs at the castle walls. Currently the power of the federal government is unchecked and is being wielded to fundamentally alter this country.

When this election is over, there will be millions of very angry voters. A MAGA crowd that will feel disenfranchised and betrayed by their country. And that anger is going to be stoked by quite a few people looking to use that anger to their advantage. Odds are that most of that anger will be shouted into the Twitter (sorry, X) void. But… if the right personality comes along… someone with charisma and persuasion ability… someone who can organize and channel that anger into action – bad things could happen.

And President Newsom has already demonstrated as governor that he does not tolerate dissent. Lockdowns and curbing of rights in the name of safety are a given. And that my friends, is a recipe for a real coup. Not a silly J6 coup, but actual violent attempts to overthrow the government. Who knows what happens at that point?

Maybe I’m wrong. Perhaps the angry right is all bark and no bite. Generally speaking, Americans have been turned into herd animals. All we want to do is chew our cud and watch TV. Odds are that we wake up a decade from now and wonder where our country went.

We’ll have given up our freedom and national identity for the promise of safety from mean words, climate change, and science deniers.

Maybe. Who knows? The future is hard to predict. Besides, there’s that minor little WWIII thing developing that could alter everything. Regardless, the next few years are going to be an interesting soap opera to watch.

Government, Politics

Fair And Balanced

If you’re new here, let me add some context to how I think. If you didn’t read the sidebar, I am a Contrarian. So much so, I offer an on-line course teaching Contrarian skills. $29.99 a month will earn you a certificate as a registered Contrarian (I jest… or am I?) As a Contrarian, my view of 99.9% of politicians starts with the word tar and ends with feather. I have no allegiance to any political party. I look at all of them with equal scorn. Why am I telling you this? Well… I was going to stay away from politics for a while, but I couldn’t resist this latest example of bias. I promise we’ll get back to some exciting weight loss news shortly.

We’re going to start by going waaay back to 2016. Don Trump Jr had a meeting with a Russian attorney in his office at Trump Tower, along with other Trump campaign folks. The premise was that the attorney was offering damaging info on Hillary Clinton. The event itself isn’t important, other than the media coverage it spawned. Weeks/months of wall-to-wall, 24×7 analysis by the talking heads on cable “news” and approximately 5 billion words written by print journalists (those are the serious journalists, if you didn’t know). The event even has its own Wikipedia page.

Fast forward to present day. The FBI has produced a document in which a whistleblower alleges the President of the United States, and his son Hunter Biden, were paid five million dollars apiece by a Ukrainian energy company. The FBI was forced to release the document following a game of political chicken and threats of contempt of congress. The document itself is unclassified. Even so, what the FBI produced was heavily redacted.

Yesterday, a US senator went to the floor of the senate and stated that the whistleblower in the FBI document also has audio recordings. 15 of Hunter and 2 of the President, supposedly discussing something about the alleged bribes. I mean, come on, audio recordings are the holy grail of bringing down cover-ups and corruption. For juicy stories, it doesn’t get much better.

Here’s my point – in a normal world, that would be news. Even if it eventually turns out to be nothing more than some sort of Sydney Powell, release the Kraken nonsense, it is news.

In a fair and balanced world, a world of unbiased journalists, this would have wall-to-wall coverage similar to the Don Jr story. Journalists would be racing to be the first to scoop some sort of corruption involving the resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. and his family. Instead… crickets.

All the major news website coverage is Trump, Trump, Trump, Trump, DeSantis, Trump, Trump, Ukraine counteroffensive is winning. Virtually zero about this story. Memory holed faster than the Hunter Biden laptop story.

I don’t care what side of the political spectrum you’re on – this should bother you. I get that you want your team to win. But a media that so blatantly suppresses news for one side is scary. The entire point of journalism is to hold the monsters in power at least semi-accountable. When one side can operate consequence-free, bad things happen.

I urge you to check your political affiliation at the door. Become a Contrarian. Be suspicious of EVERYTHING. Be extra wary when there’s a concerted effort to not report something.

Given everything going on in the news, I’m going to double down on my earlier predictions, with one change:

  • Trump will continue running until the bitter end, even if it’s from a jail cell.
  • Trump’s continued campaign will effectively create an RNC split ticket. The MAGA folks will go down with the ship, especially with the latest indictment. They won’t vote for DeSantis. The Never Trumpers are, well, never Trump. Game, set, match. DNC win.
  • The change – Biden is officially out. He’ll either have an unspecified “health issue” or the DNC will hang him out to dry with the alleged bribery allegations. He’ll drop out of the race.

Welcome President Newsom.

Daily Life, Government, Politics

It’s All About Equilibrium

equilibrium noun a state of rest or balance due to the equal action of opposing forces.

Our world will do everything in its power to achieve equilibrium. Fluids, gases, nature, economics, politics, relationships – everything needs balance. Fluids move in and out of cells due to unequal pressures. Remove all the predators from a habitat and the deer population will explode. Our financial markets can’t survive extreme highs or lows indefinitely. Humans don’t thrive without a healthy work/life balance. The world constantly strives to be at a steady state. It’s one of the immutable laws of nature.

The 1950’s ushered in an unbelievable level of prosperity in the United States. That prosperity trickled out to the rest of the world and raised the economic prospects of most nations. The political world, broadly speaking, does everything possible to maintain that prosperity and balance. How it does that is the subject of untold numbers of history books. The Deep State, The Enterprise, The Cabal – whether you think there’s a coordinated group that controls the levers of power or just simply individuals hungry for power and money, the end result is the same. The desire to enforce US hegemony has resulted in a hundred years of the United States pulling the strings and levers of the world.

We’ve initiated coups, fostered wars, manipulated the media, tweaked monetary policy, and controlled industry. All of that is neither good nor bad. It is what it is. It’s a system trying to maintain what it considers as equilibrium. It’s the nature of the world – if we weren’t in control, someone else would be. You and I have been massive beneficiaries of that system. You may not like how the sausage is made, but most people don’t complain about how good it tastes (sorry vegans). There’s a reason a million people a year are streaming illegally across our borders.

So, here’s what’s interesting. Despite the States never ending efforts to prevent you from seeing the sausage making process and maintain what it considers the status quo… we have just enough freedom to question things without fear of the Stasi showing up in the middle of the night and disappearing you (mostly). Recently, the fourth generation of the internet, coupled with Moores law, has enabled the population to share pesky, unpopular, information outside of the mainstream press at a level and speed never before imagined.

We’ve seen it in fits and starts. Alternative, fringe, conspiracy blogs. The Drudge Report (early days). Alex Jones. But now… now we’re seeing non-traditional views carve out a sizable chunk of the mainstream information landscape. I’d argue Joe Rogan was the pioneer. A source of information and views from every side of the spectrum. Uncensored and fed to a massive audience. It’s fair to say he spawned the podcast revolution. More recently, Elon Musk’s takeover of Twitter further changed the information landscape. A sudden, shocking dismantling of what was a government influenced censorship tool, to something that has quickly evolved into what looks like a true public square of discourse.

You may not like the discourse – but it’s hard to argue against it being much closer to multiple sides freely shouting whatever they think is the truth (or whatever version of the truth they want to push). I want you to be able to scream whatever cockamamie theory you have at the top of your lungs. What I don’t want is a Ministry of Truth deciding what truth I get to hear.

And now we have the climactic moment of this film. A recent grand trifecta of events. First up is Tucker Carlson. Fox fires him. He quickly starts a new “show” on Twitter. Now you may not like him or anything he says. But his first episode has 110 million views. His just released second episode is at 30+ million views in the first nine hours. Fox News, the highest rated cable show for years, rarely hit more than 2.8 million views for any show. That’s a staggering difference in reach.

Next the FBI just released, under threat of a congressional contempt order, info about allegations that indicate President Biden took a 5-million-dollar bribe from Ukraine. Prior to the new Twitter, that would have been memory holed out of existence instantly (see Hunter Biden laptop). And finally, cough, cough, coincidentally on the same day as that FBI release, former president Trump and the current leading presidential candidate, was indicted for the same thing Hillary and Biden did (possessing classified documents). Hmmm nobody’s above the law, right? The avalanche of online outrage right now is at a level I haven’t seen before.

So what’s my point? I don’t care if you do or don’t agree with Tucker, Trump, DNC, RNC, Elon Musk, the FBI, or the DOJ. Up until this point the State has been able to exert enormous pressure to control the narrative. That dam has been breached. Tucker’s new platform signals the official end of the mainstream media as the primary information source for millions upon millions of people. Tucker and/or his new platform may or may not survive, but it’s a clear sign we no longer have to rely exclusively upon the various news talking heads to feed us the official party line.

The State, and the mainstream media, have pushed the scale of information control so far out of whack, something is going to happen. A very large portion of the population are angry. They’re tired of a narrative being forced upon them. They’re tired of being lied to. I think we’re about to see an absolute flood of information reach the population that is different than what they’ve been told. An angry populace is craving to hear something closer to the truth. You are about to see the field of “non-traditional” journalists explode. Thousands of people jockeying to leak the latest bit of government overreach and corporate manipulation without fear of censorship.

Truth, rumor, scandal, targeted misinformation – all of it is going to be sucked up by millions of people craving something closer to the truth like a dry sponge in a glass of water.

An angry, unsettled population is a dangerous population. The more details about how the sausage is made are made public, the more there will be shouting for accountability and lashing out in frustration. And the more unsettled the population becomes, the more likely it is for the State to crack down. The State will not give up its power and control without a fight. And that my friends, is a recipe for scary times. There might be one or two historical precedents for such scenarios if you wanted to look.

Part of me craves the idyllic 80’s and 90’s of my youth. Oh, the same crap went on behind the scenes… we were just mostly oblivious to it. If Ted Koppel or Dan Rather didn’t say it, it didn’t happen. But now – as the famous saying goes, do you want the blue pill and wake up happy in your bed, or do you want the red pill and see how deep the rabbit hole goes?

Nature craves equilibrium. People are slowly waking up to how unfairly the game is rigged. A whole lot of folks are about to take the red pill for the first time. For good or bad, the scale will eventually find a way to swing the other way.

Let’s just hope we don’t overcorrect.

Politics

Polar Opposites

I ran into some commentary yesterday that I thought was interesting. Two people I follow and whose opinions I respect. For the first time (that I noticed) their opinion of the situation in Ukraine were completely opposite.

First up is Peter Zeihan. He’s a geopolitical analyst who always seems to have good inside sources and provides comprehensive, behind the scenes analysis of world events. He put out a couple of videos the other day about events in Ukraine. Russia launched a handful of hypersonic missiles at Kiev. Zeihan believes Ukraine shot down some/all of them and this represents a key moment in Ukrainian air defense against Russia.

He also thinks that Russia’s campaign is severely faltering due to a lack of troops and incompetent leadership. The fighting around Bakhmut have devastated Russian troop numbers and depleted ammo and supplies. Ukraine’s spring offensive is about to start, and they will probably conduct several feints to draw the limited Russian troops away from whatever the Ukrainian intended targets are. He seems to be fairly bullish on Ukraine’s chances at the moment, given the material support they’re getting from the US/NATO.

Next is Col Douglas Macgregor. He’s a retired US Army colonel who is a consultant and television commentator. He has consistently provided insight that indicates Ukraine is losing badly. He talks frequently about the devastating loss of Ukrainian troops and that they have run out of enough men to backfill the losses. He has shown video of fighting age males being forcibly abducted and sent to the front. He comments frequently about Ukraine’s battle losses that the mainstream media never seem to cover.

On the subject of the missiles, he said that no country currently has the technology to shoot down a hypersonic missile. He thinks the Russian targeting intelligence is quite good and that they’ve been very successful destroying any new equipment/ammo the west and NATO is sending as fast as it’s staged in-country. He scoffed at mainstream media for accepting Ukraine’s claims that they shot down most of the missiles.

So, what am I supposed to think? Two people whose commentary and analysis has seemed to be pretty spot-on. Now they have polar opposite views. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. When it’s all said and done, who had the better geopolitical analysis? I’m getting my popcorn ready for this one.

Politics

Predictions

The 2024 elections seem like a long way off and it feels silly to speculate on what might happen so early in the process. I’m probably going to be wrong, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say that we’re going to have another four years of Biden. Here’s why…

The democratic primary has the concept of “superdelegates”. Because of this, the party establishment controls who will win the nomination (see Bernie Sanders, x2). The democratic party elite are perfectly happy having a useful idiot as a placeholder to do their bidding. As long as he doesn’t decline much further, he’s their man.

The man waiting in the wings is Gavin Newsom. He’s already traveling the country and putting fundraising and staffing feelers out. He just launched a PAC with 10 million dollars from his existing campaign funds. He won’t challenge Biden but is poised to jump in if the establishment decides the current commander in chief can no longer follow instructions.

Trump (A.K.A the bad orange man) is the dream candidate for democrats. There is no other republican candidate who can turn out the democratic vote better than Trump. While I don’t believe for a second that Biden received 13 million more votes than Obama, the sheer democratic turnout for someone who campaigned from his basement should scare the pants off of republicans.

Nothing sparks more outrage for democrats than Trump. And what is the democrat-controlled media and justice system currently doing? Everything possible to stir up more Trump outrage. Indictments, court cases, rehashing scandals, and never-ending analysis of every perceived horrible thing Trump has ever done. This will continue ad nauseum for the next year. And Trump, being the thin-skinned narcissist he is, will rise to the occasion and spend this year name calling and chanting about stolen elections. It’s a dumpster fire the democrats will keep pouring gasoline on.

The problem is that Trump voters don’t realize it’s already a lost battle. Trump barely won in ’16 and got spanked in ’20. Virtually all the candidates he endorsed in the ’22 midterms lost. The GOP does not know how to counter the democratic vote gathering machine and spends their time issuing pithy statements about virtue while the democrats clean their clocks in every big population city. It’s like Groundhog Day and Lucy with the football all wrapped up in one. Why does this keep happening to me? (see RNC chair Ronna McDaniel)

If Trump wins the nomination, there aren’t enough MAGA votes to overcome the democratic machine. And, there’s probably a reasonably large number of republican voters who will sit out rather than put up with four more years of Trump chaos. The establishment GOP leaders hate Trump and won’t lift a finger to help him. The deep state will do everything possible to further torpedo his chances. The DNC will hammer home the message of Trump chaos, scandal, racism, and abortion. Game, set, match.

The obvious wildcard is DeSantis. Trump is already attacking him nonstop, and I saw the first MAGA funded anti-DeSantis attack ad the other night. Trump is clearly worried. It’s unclear if DeSantis can win the nomination. To do so, he’s going to have to go hardcore against Trump. He’ll have to be nasty and hammer home Trump’s flaws. But if he does that, he’s going to piss off all the MAGA sycophants big time. If DeSantis eeks out the nomination, will all the butt-hurt Trump supporters turn out for him? That’s a big maybe.

For DeSantis to win the presidency, he’ll need to destroy Trump, win back the support of the MAGA crowd he pissed off, thread the needle of gaining GOP establishment support, and then win over the suburban soccer mom crowd. With the media already crafting him as the “don’t say gay” and book burning guy… he’ll have a tough job to gain any crossover support from any of the centrist liberal crowd.

My gut feeling is that DeSantis would emerge from the nomination battle with Trump too bruised to be effective against the DNC machine.

My sense is that the only chance of a republican winning the presidency in ’24 would be some sort of Trump scandal that comes out in the next few months that’s so egregious, even the MAGA faithful couldn’t stomach supporting him. If that happens soon enough, DeSantis can cleanly win the nomination and have enough MAGA support to have a sporting chance of defeating the DNC.

The democratic party is in good shape. They own the media and the deep state. They have a useful puppet already in place. If he screws up or has a massive stroke, pretty boy Newsom is ready to go. The democratic faithful already kept Newsom in place with an overwhelming majority vote in his failed recall effort. There’s no reason to think he’d do any differently on the national stage. He’s bulletproof.

So, barring any unforeseen circumstances, (nuclear exchange, massive financial melt-down, etc…) I give the democratic party an 85-90% chance of maintaining the presidency.

So there you go. My official prediction. Let’s see how off base I am. And yes, I’ll publicly eat crow if it turns out I have no idea what I’m talking about.