At the moment, it’s hard to envision an offramp for the tinderbox that is the situation in the Middle East. It’s obviously what Hamas wanted. Provoke Israel into launching a military campaign so the Palestinians can claim victimhood and provoke outrage across the world. It worked. Mass protests in Europe and the US in support of Palestine. The US is now reportedly pressuring Israel to postpone any ground invasion of Gaza. Hezbollah is ramping up attacks in the north and Egypt has moved a hundred thousand troops towards the border. Iran is happily stoking the unrest. Israel is fucked no matter what they do.
If they do nothing, it emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror to extract concessions. If they strike, it also emboldens the muslim world to continue using terror tactics. This won’t end. It wasn’t that long ago, in this scenario the proper solution would be to remove your enemy from the playing field with extreme prejudice. That is no longer an option. Israel has to balance every single action against the court of public opinion, which was already slanted against them. So basically Israel has to just sit there and take it.
Here’s the problem. I don’t think Israel is going to worry as much about a “proportional response” this time. And that is what Hamas wanted all along. And the US is going to get dragged into this in support of our ally. And that scares me.
We do not have a competent administration in charge. Based upon how badly we misjudged (by accident or design) the ongoing Ukraine situation, I have zero confidence that we have any reasonable analysis happening regarding the potential fall-out from a large regional conflict in the Middle East. Especially one in which we’re up to our elbows in.
If large scale missiles start flying, what then? What do you think is going to happen to the price of oil if the Suez Canal and the Strait of Hormuz is shut down? Saudi Arabia and Iraq are still in the top 5 for US oil imports. Our strategic oil reserve is empty. We’re not ramping up domestic oil production anytime soon. Think inflation is bad now? Wait until the price of diesel doubles. Scarcity of goods will become a very real thing here. Remember the empty shelves during the blip that was covid? It’ll be a lot worse than that… assuming you can still afford to buy anything.
Think this will remain a regional conflict over there? When we start lobbing missiles at Syria, Lebanon, and Iran… picture the millions of people who’ve streamed across our border in the last few years. We have zero idea who’s in our country. You’re very naive if you think we won’t start seeing terror attacks across the homeland.
We are closer to a large scale global conflict than I ever thought I’d see in my lifetime. Sadly, there doesn’t seem to be anyone capable of walking us back from the ledge. It’s truly frightening.
So now what? My gut says the die is cast. I hope not. I sincerely hope cooler heads prevail and this calms back down to a low simmer. But as the old saying goes, hope is not a plan.
It’s time to be prepared to look after your family and friends. Can you withstand frequent, sustained rolling power outages? Do you have food and basic supplies to bridge the gap if the supply chain breaks down? Are you prepared to defend against the civil unrest that follows food and goods scarcity? For gods sake, people were nearly coming to blows over the toilet paper shortage during covid. This would be much worse.
Better to have and not need, than need and not have. But you never know. I’ve been known to get a bit negative after spending too much time reading social media. There’s a chance I’m simply a weird tinfoil hat guy sitting in my basement. Biden might cancel his beach vacation and negotiate a lasting world peace. Obama may step in and wave his Nobel prize around. The ayatollah might get scared of Lindsey Graham’s chest thumping and back down.
Maybe.
troutdog 
I’m quite shocked about your deeply prejudiced stance here, Eric. You say that Israel has to just sit there and take it, as if there are F-16s and white phosphorus raining down on Israel and that 5,000 Israelis are dead and counting and 1,400 or so Gazans.
Clearly, the ones suffering the most, as a virtually defenceless group and facing the potential for extinction if Israel does as it seems to wish, are Gazan civilians who were living in atrocious conditions, having sustained numerous massive aerial bombardments over the past decade and now, the worst of all.
You propose a false dilemma of war crimes or doing nothing. There is another option for US/Israel (for they are inextricable due to the military funding), to negotiate with Hamas for release of hostages and work with the international community towards lifting the crippling 16 year blockade and end to settlements to open a route to a Palestinian sovereign state, alongside Israel.
The brutal and illegal occupation is clearly not promoting peace for Israelis. History shows us that the forcible domination and subjugation of a people engenders violent retaliation. It was seen in slave rebellions and anti-colonial uprisings.
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What Hamas did was utterly depraved and barbaric. There is NOTHING that justifies that. Period. Full stop.
Any attempts to “yes, but…” instantly exposes your antisemitism. There is no nation on this planet that would sit still after what Hamas gleefully did. The people of Gaza have had nearly 18 years of autonomy. In that time, they have shown themselves incapable of forming any sort of coherent government, maintaining basic infrastructure for the people, or establishing normal relations with other nations. The single focus of Hamas is to drive Jews into the sea. That’s it.
Hamas is violent terrorist group. They happily launch rockets from schools and hospitals knowing full well any counterstrike is a propaganda bonanza… which is the point. They have no regard for their own people. Clearly the rule is that it’s ok to launch thousands of rockets indiscriminately at Israel. No worries about that. Ah, but if Israel strikes back – oh, the humanity!
How about this – Hamas stops firing rockets, releases the hostages, and declares an end to all hostilities. Then, and only then, can there be a discussion about peace. Otherwise, they’re enemy combatants. At the same time, maybe we can muster up some of that outrage and direct it towards Egypt. Last I checked they have a giant border wall designed to keep out Palestinians. Hmm. Why is that?
You seem like someone who is intelligent enough not to fall for the white phosphorous and casualty number propaganda supplied by Hamas. (see recent Israel strikes hospital and kills 500 story). So, either your blind hatred of Israel is clouding your judgement, or you’re simply happy to regurgitate Hamas talking points.
Hamas at any time can choose peace and strive to create an economy with their neighbors and normal relations for their people. They chose violence.
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I don’t defend Hamas but I seek to explain their actions. You yourself did similar in your piece, saying that Israeli bombardment in Gaza would likely have blowback. Military actions that hurt civilians on a wide scale have the effect of radicalising populations and leading to blowback.
It is absurd to say that Gaza has had autonomy, There has been a blockade for 16 years which has restricted essential goods and at times deprived the area of medicine, food, building materials and even things like pencils. When activists tried to peacefully break the blockade and deliver aid by flotilla, in 2010, their ship was attacked in international waters with 10 activists dying.
Israel used force to restrict Palestinian fishermen access to the sea. In March, this year, four Gazan fisherman were shot and injured by rubber bullets for venturing a few nautical miles off the Gazan coast. Under the Oslo Accord, Gazans were given fishing rights up to 20 miles off the coast. Israel enforces a limit of 3-6 miles in defiance of the agreement. In 2017, I read, a fisherman was shot and killed in his boat, when they were less than 2 miles off the coast.
During the Great March of Return demonstrations between 30 March 2018 and 27 December 2019, 223 Gazans were killed and many thousands injured by Israeli snipers firing on civilians gathering in protest at the border. Within Gaza, Israel has imposed a no-go zone alongside the border wall, which means that 17% or so of the Gaza is inaccessible to the people trapped there.
It was well documented by the media that these protests were not organised by Hamas but civilian led. Whilst there were instances of weapons used and force, with one Israeli soldier being killed, the vast majority of the protesters were peaceful. Nonetheless, Israeli snipers fired upon them, including killing medics attending to the injured.
Gazan non-violent protest was met with sniper fire and Israel has responded to Hamas rocket fire with regular indiscriminate violence. Israeli “mowing the lawn”, as it has been described within Israel by some, resulted in 3,624 Palestinians being killed between 2010-19, with over 75% being civilians. 203 Israelis were killed in that period, half being civilians.
Gazans are forbidden by Israel from operating an airport or a sea port. Gazans are restricted from leaving the enclave, including from visiting family or pursuing opportunities in West Bank, despite international consensus that the two parts form a single territory. Egypt, another major recipient of US military funding, cooperates with Israel’s blockade in controlling their border.
It is utter delusion to say that Gazans have autonomy and that they can operate like any other nation.
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I would add that at times Israel has attacked Gaza in violation of a truce. For example, in the case of Operation Cast Lead of December 2008 to January 2009, during which nearly 1,000 Palestinian civilians were killed, a ceasefire had been holding between Hamas and IDF, with violence falling drastically, only for Israel to majorly break the ceasefire with a raid and trigger renewal of violence, which as usual, resulted in indiscriminate killing of Gazan civilians.
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I’m going to repeat myself. What Hamas did is so barbaric it defies description. The citizens of Gaza were seen celebrating in the street afterwards. There is ZERO justification for what Hamas did. Binding women and children with wire and burning them alive, mutilations, killing babies, calling parents with the phone they took from a child they just killed and taunting them… That is pure evil.
And sure enough, the first thing you did was “yes, but…”. NO. What was done was evil and has nothing to do with war or perceived injustices. The fact that you won’t condemn it, and immediately launch into the wrongs of Israel is telling. What sort of person defends (by ignoring) what Hamas did? You can’t hide your antisemitism with a bland “I don’t defend them but I seek to explain their actions”. Nope. You’ve shown who you are.
I’m not sure what Hamas thought was going to happen. But they asked for war. Unrestrained war is what is going to happen. While I don’t want to see collective punishment… my sympathy meter is at zero. Fuck around and find out, as the saying goes.
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You don’t want collective punishment and yet, you have no sympathy for the victims of that collective punishment? That is a contradiction.
Every two days, or so, in this bombardment, the equivalent number of Palestinian civilians are being killed as Israelis and other nationals were killed on October 7th in a clearly indiscriminate and illegal way. And, yet, you have sympathy for one but “zero” for the other?
I am appalled by the Oct 7 massacre by Hamas, as I am appalled by the thousands of Palestinians that were killed in repeated bombardments in the near past and those being murdered as we discuss this now.
I am appalled by the 200 plus Palestinians that were killed in the Occupied Territories this year alone, prior to Oct 7. This was mainly in the West Bank, where Hamas is not in control and where Palestinians are currently being killed by the IDF and attacked by settlers.
I don’t entirely blame you or others for supporting Israel’s ongoing atrocities. The Western media and political class work to hide the victims of Israeli/US occupation. We do not know the name of single one of the 200 Palestinians killed this year, prior to Oct 7, not even the children. We probably, never saw an image or a news report on them. How can we have sympathy for people and events that we do not hear of?
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I just wanted to add, I do share your concerns about the potential for the war to escalate and engulf the world. I agree that the Biden Administration seems incompetent here but I suspect that the Republicans would be no different, even, possibly, worse, as unconditional backing for geo-strategic partner, Israel, is cross-party, it seems.
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